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Adam, I really feel for you. We've all been through AIM traumas and carry the scars. May I recommend James Montier's "The Little Book of Behavioural Investing". It's a brilliant little book and explains how we can sometimes be our own worst enemy.
Montier is good at explaining the difference between our "X-Brain"- the irrational, unresearched, emotional brain- and our "C-Brain"- which handles information in a more logical, slow, serial way, where evidence and logic count.
Please do not believe for one moment that you are stupid. Sir Isaac Newton, one of the greatest scientists of all time, lost a fortune investing.
I have no ideas about, or interest in, Tullow. Avacta, however, has a platform technology (Affimers) and a very smart CEO, Alastair Smith, who is a highly qualified scientist, and also has very keen commercial instincts. The US Bio-Tech investors have noticed Avacta and the Company has several very important collaborations with majors such as Danaher in the US and LG Chemicals in S. Korea.
The euphoria for AVCT regarding its antigen testing for SARS-Cov-2 virus will be relatively temporary, whilst its platform for therapeutics and other diagnostics will endure. It now has the thick end of £60M to pursue its very promising cancer-treatment and other agendas. Patience is the key, here. AVCT is not a sham company. It will be here in five years, and if it isn't, it will have been taken out by a very major strategic corporation, pharma or otherwise, in which case the SP will rocket.
Be gentle with yourself and have faith in the long-term potential of a very promising British bio-tech.
Keep safe and very best wishes.
Fingers- Always most grateful for your links. Markets often do not have much imagination. They respond to announcements, not to intelligent pro-active thought and positioning.
There are a lot of positives in your most recent link. VW planning for the manufacture of 1.5 M new energy vehicles by 2025, for which they will need 100 gigawatthours from now to then, which is beyond the capacity of any supplier. VW has already conceived, and is beginning to deliver, the Modular Electric Vehicle Platform, known as MEB, across all its plants. The collaboration with Gotion, the Chinese major, enables VW to achieve deeper knowhow across the whole battery value chain, from sourcing, development and production to recycling. With three Skoda production plants in the Czech Republic alone, Cinovec's potential will not be lost on the strategic management Boards of VW-Audi AG.
My excitement about EMH is partly based on the thought that the markets have not caught up with EMH/Cinovec's potential. When they do, you won't see the SP for dust !
We hear that Elon Musk has made a visit to the UK very recently, with a view to building a gigafactory on UK soil. Where's he going to get the lithium from to make that work ? Finland ? Mexico ? China ? Peru ? And that's not to forget his major Berlin project. I believe that EMH's downside risks are minimal and the upside potential enormous and I'm very, very happy to just sit tight and wait. All in my opinion only. Please DYOR. Please keep safe.
Chart looks interesting: Just about at the 200-day EMA. A few days ago, a "Golden Cross" between 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA.
Higher lows over the past month or more, but not yet higher highs. Bumping up against resistance at present. Very solid support at 8.9 pence.
Triple Witching Week begins Monday, June 15th into Friday, June 19th. Wary until that's over.
All in my opinion only. Please DYOR. Please keep safe.
NIDGM- Edison's Report on Nanoco , dated May 11th, 2017, is worth a read. This was written when Display was Nanoco's primary focus, viz: 1) New non-exclusive commercial arrangement with Dow (31/3/16). 2) Wah Hong commercial agreement (22/7/16). 3) Merck commercial agreement (1/8/16). 4) Purchase of Kodak patents (28/11/16). Obviously before the ? Apple partnership was announced on 8/2/18.
In this Edison Report, it is estimated that Dow's Cheonan facility could supply CFQDs for millions of square metres of display screens and could therefore generate greater than $2.5M of royalty fees for Nanoco per annum. Edison's base case was a royalty to Nanoco of $2.20 per square metre initially, but eroding by 12% each year. Edison used IHS's figure of an estimated cost of $57.8 for the QD film for a 55 inch TV (0.83 square metres).
It is interesting that Edison stated: " Nanoco was founded specifically to commercialise research, dating back to 2004, to solve the problem of manufacturing QDs at scale. The Company's proprietary molecular seeding process enables CFQDs to be manufactured to precise scale (and therefore colour) without rapid cooling....... a more simple process than the alternative high-temperature dual-injection method. We believe that the ease of scaling was a key factor in enabling it to secure licensing relationships with Dow and Merck."
I understand that the key platform for the lawsuit against Samsung is this precise issue of the molecular seeding process.
The KAIST (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) lawsuit against all of Intel, Apple and Samsung for IP encroachment of its FinFet technology is salutary. Intel buckled early and signed a licensing deal. Apple fought on until 2019 when it settled for an undisclosed sum. Samsung, however, battled on, eventually having a claim of $400M laid against it, subsequently reduced to c.$216M (as PPE has kindly already stated on this thread) earlier this year. One commentator stated: "Samsung showed no signs of backing off. The company (Samsung) seems to be ready for years of suits, its go-to strategy aimed at exhausting powerless parent holders such as individuals or small-sized outfits."
On the issue of funding for the lawsuit, ME has stated that this funding is very germane to Nanoco's balance-sheet. Presumably, therefore, successful conclusion of a funding agreement would be announced through an RNS ??
Fingers- good link, thank you. Australians must be very mindful of the effects of climate change in the appalling fires in the South-East corner. Globally, I think that the benefit of the massive reduction in air travel and the consequent improvement in air quality, etc, will be talked about, as it was after the 9/11, when the USA shut every flight down for a brief period.
I sense that Covid-19 will provoke people to take stock. Car sales will be down, but the Covid-19-caused hiatus may provoke motor majors to rethink and retool.
I note that Albemarle, the US minerals major, is very serious about the Australian lithium deposits. I would like to be a fly-on-the-wall for the upcoming Deutsche Bank Summit on industrials and materials. Elon Musk may be eccentric, but he is charismatic and is now a force to be reckoned with with footprints in all of the USA, China and Europe. The trend is our friend here !
Fingers- thanks very much for sharing your deep and long-term knowledge. I tried to gather more info on the quoted large-holders (>3%), but only found the official declaration of Cadence/Armco/Coughlan. Encouraging that the top-40 have been in EMH for a long time and, collectively, own 85%. Is there a list of these top-40, all but three of whom will be under 3% ?
I am making a presumption that David Reeves, non-exec Chair of EMH, will hang on to 1M odd shares recently vested to him (or rather his wife, Eleanor Reeves).
Given some negative comments on KDNC, is the prominence of Kiran Morzaria (he is quoted as someone to contact on EMH's RNSs) a risk to EMH ? Thanks very much for all your help, here.
Sausage-dog- It's interesting that, hitherto, EMH has attracted only 26.6% Institutional shareholding (16.6% from Cadence and 10% from Armco Barriers), as declared on May 14th, 2020. One of my arguments for investing in EMH early is that its profile remains rather under-the-radar, with plenty of room for institutional interest as awareness of the strategic importance of lithium increases. I mustn't get carried away, but EMH looks to be a bit of a hidden gem. Really pleased to hear that you have investigated EMH and have invested.
Observer- thanks once more and very important to factor in possible futures for lithium (hydroxide and carbonate) prices.
Maybe we can only make guesses here based on likely trends in our now de-globalising World. I have been surprised , and actually pleased, that the climate change lobby has gained serious traction in the last year. I'm on my second hybrid motor-car.
I am pleased, but somewhat surprised, that Elon Musk has made such an impact in the gas-guzzling USA.
There are obviously a number of speculative lithium projects, an example being ALLIF, a US-quoted company exploring the Argentine/Peru triangle, wherein lie the best brine deposits. I understand that Lithium Hydroxide is rather difficult to transport(certainly more difficult than Carbonate) and I have, perhaps rather foolishly, maybe over-rated the concept of OEMs wanting to drastically shorten supply-lines. In this respect, I have concentrated heavily on European sentiment and local availability of lithium. I am not familiar with the exact dynamics of the Chinese-derived lithium market. I do know that Albemarle, the US major based in Charlotte, North Carolina, is champing at the bit to get slices of the action in Australian lithium deposits. Indeed, I've just heard that the top-knobs at Albemarle will be attending the Deutsche Bank Virtual 11th Annual Industrials and Material Summit on Tuesday, June 9th. Doubtless, the lithium market will be high on the agenda. You are absolutely right to draw our attention to the lithium price. Are we in a situation where the enthusiasm for lithium sparks all manner of projects and there is then a glut ? Thank you, I will keep this very much in mind as a major factor.
Good luck and keep safe !
Observer- good observations, thanks. Yes, I don't believe there will be massive dilution, but I have factored it in to my calculations. For so many oilers/miners/biotechs/small pharmas, it's just a fact of corporate life.
I always lay out the pros and cons in my analysis and I am genuinely struggling to find an array of cons. I think there's a bulletin thread on this board which is headed "What's not to like !"
But, I'm trying not to get too attached or carried away with fanciful notions. I would love to hear from any posters if they have serious doubts on any aspect of EMH. I would be very keen indeed to factor in any potential elephant traps.
Thanks again.
Observer: Thank you, yes, I have. With only 154M shares in issue, I think that 62 pence target could be quite an underestimate, equating to under £100M market-cap. Obviously, with a CAPEX of something like $500M to actually develop the mine to fully functional status, that leaves a big hole for massive dilution. But, as sentiment is changing EU-wide regarding lithium, I anticipate that there will be massive support for EMH to make this project work. In fact, I would argue that this is a project that will just not be allowed to fail, period ! What exactly that means for EMH is another matter. Having an ethical EU Govt steering CEZ heavily derisks the chance of dodgy dealings; there will be too much visibility here. Also, even after Brexit, EMH is headed up by an Australian and is quoted on both the Aus and Frankfurt Exchanges. Thus, again good visibility and unlikely to be anti-UK political shenanigans.
Indeed, although not part of my investment case (I never buy just on the hopes of a take-over), I think that EMH will get taken out. EMH's asset is just too essential and valuable. The EU already regards lithium as a strategic mineral and it will be crucial for particularly German industrial survival. That's exactly why I deemed it OK to buy in heavily again today. Apart from general market volatility, I just don't see any serious downside. Buying early is, in some ways, protective.
I remember buying SXX at 2 pence. I sold way before the crazy peak. Even if I had stayed the course, I would not have lost money, unlike so many decent folk who got sucked in at much higher valuations.
Good luck to you; stay safe !
Qd22- Great to hear from you. I put that story about Isaac Newton and Thomas Guy as a little homily. I hope it didn't sound patronising. I've done a Thomas Guy with AVCT; sold nearly all at a 60% profit; have a tiny bit left in which I don't care about. I have another great quote stamped in my brain:
Bystander to Baron Rothschild (member of the famous Austrian Banking dynasty):
Q: "How come you're so rich, Sir ?"
A: "Mostly by selling too soon !"
It grieves me when I hear about people putting their whole life savings into very speculative stocks. The harrowing stories about Sirius Minerals, Aston Martin Lagonda et al are bad enough !
I agree with you that the general markets seem way too vulnerable at present. How come the S+P500 is only about 10% down from its all-time highs in February ?? Just wait for the US non-Farm Payroll figures coming out this Friday ! And then the Q2 results season !!
I am half expecting that at some point between now and September, we will get another major downturn in sentiment. With EMH, we have great support at about 9pence, which is about a 50% downdraft from today. Would it vex me ? No. For me, speculation is about calibrating a future and I am comforted by the collaboration with CEZ, which is, I understand, 70% owned by the Czech State. That's a massive de-risk. What has encouraged me in addition is that lithium appears to have been in the doldrums, but now appears to feature in the collective EU mindset and is, therefore, in the ascendancy.
I'm no Warren Buffett, but he likes to buy what he calls "cigar-butt shares", meaning shares that have been neglected and sort of thrown away. He would not buy into EMH because it is not cash generative and has no dividend, but he would like the idea that it has a "moat".
As I said in my prior post, I was expecting no great creep-up in the SP. Indeed, there's a virtue in just plonking in each of the next several quarters on a pound-cost-averaging basis, with confidence in the very long-term. I just don't think I want to be doing that if, by October, the SP is 25 or 30 pence. This may be completely delusional thinking and I'm ready to be disappointed with quite a bit of cash on hand. In this respect, I am doing a bit of a Buffett- going in heavily early on and riding out whatever these somewhat crazy markets throw at us.
Anyway, great to have some super posters on-side who have given us such excellent and widespread research links. I do wish you well and very nice to converse this way. Please keep safe !
The Govt faces huge pressures in the absence of substantive scientific data. The science on Covid-19 is very, very incomplete. Science is driven by evidence and evidence is constituted by data. Furthermore, in my view, that data needs to be person-specific as this will give Govt some sort of handle on many issues, viz:
1) Tracking epidemiology of disease in general population.
2) Tracking disparities in incidence/prevalence as regards ethnicity, deprivation, age-group, co-morbidities.
3) Facilitating some sort of immunity passporting.
4) Providing substantive data-base for eventual vaccine roll-out.
Govt will be looking long-term, not least to cover its @rse when the inevitable Royal Commission Enquiry drills down on Govt handling of the crisis which has cost over 40,000 UK deaths, and counting. The Govt will need to be able to establish beyond doubt that they were led by the scientists and that the plans to collect the data, and respond to it, are coherent and as comprehensive as possible. The scientists, do, thereby, become a point of deflection, if not the fall-guys.
My view, for what it's worth, is that Govt will focus on rigorous antibody testing and will delegate antigen testing largely to the private sector. In both categories, there will, I think, be a need for repeat testing.
My take is that they will train-up the 26,000 track-and-test folk to take pin-prick blood samples, take a brief survey of each person tested (age, gender, ethnicity, etc., etc.), location, contact details, maybe even passport identity numbers. Only when this sort of evidence is collected and collated can the science (as far as the general population is concerned) begin.
Investors in the various testing companies are focused on the science of the tests, which is a very important part of the ability to generate the data. But, as far as Govt is concerned, the testing must fall in with the overall strategy.
Govt has got to get this right for the long-term. It has looked pretty hopeless at times and confidence has slipped. For a "command and control" style Govt (which is exactly what we have), it has to button-up as much as possible. Investors look at each day's news, Govt is playing the long game and, for once, is actually putting substance ahead of appearance. It cannot afford to get this wrong again. All in my opinion only. Good luck all and keep safe.
Fingers and Sid- You both and LawrenceH have been brilliant stewards of this board. I have to say that my original intention was to step in with further buying every quarter in the Triple-Witching Weeks leading into the 3rd Fridays in June, Sept, December and March. I just thought that things would tumble along and there would not be any big SP lifting as EMH's project schedule is quite long-term.
Thanks to your excellent research-links and comments, I have revised my buying schedule, not least because the SP is cranking up nicely. I bought quite a big dose at 10.9p not very long ago and before that at 10.53p. I have re-examined the investment case and have become even more convinced (thanks once again for the links) that there may well be premature bids for off-take arrangements. I have, therefore, stepped in today quite big-time, for me anyway, but leaving some cash on the top-line in case there is a general market swoop-down.
It's interesting that the market crash just after March Triple Witching (lows on Monday, March 23rd) did not affect EMH's price that much. In any event, I would buy again if there is any weakness. I just don't want to be caught out with a slow trickle-up in SP, cursing that I didn't buy more earlier.
Markets are febrile and jumpy, but you've only got to look at De La Rue's SP in the last couple of days to see that investors will jump in very quickly if there is a dramatic change in a company's outlook. I'm not trying to ramp (you guys are far too smart !), but I genuinely think that an off-take with one of Germany's majors (VW; M-Benz; BMW) could see the SP double. And that sort of spike would be essentially sustainable as it would grandstand EMH/Cinovec's prospects to the World.
When I examine my shares, and I only hold four major positions in essentially fairly defensive sectors, EMH comes out on top as being the most de-risked and opportunity-laden by quite a margin.
Time will tell, but again so many thanks for such brilliant research support. Best best wishes and please keep safe.
Waggy42 :There's a true story about Sir Isaac Newton, founder of gravitational theory and arguably one of the most brilliant minds in history. He made an early bet on the infamous South Sea Bubble and then sold all at a very handsome profit. A bit later, however, he got FOMO as the price continued to ascend, so he piled back in and lost it all. He never forgave himself.
Thomas Guy, founder of Guy's Hospital in London (known then as The Hospital for Incurables), took his profit quite early on, as Newton had done, but didn't reinvest. He was heavily castigated later owing to bad feeling from those who eventually lost their fortune. Guy used his profit to found the hospital and that legacy has endured for 300 years ! There's a moral in there somewhere !
GeneGenie- Thank you very much. May I ask a rather further-reaching question? If I Government wanted to build a substantial high-grade data-base for the purposes of: 1) issuing immunity passports 2) collating information for the administration of a vaccine; what features would enhance the statistical validity of any test results? Presumably, the highest quality test; the highest possible prevalence (in the epidemiological sense); repeated testing; some sort of reliable conduit for ascribing test results to any individual. Am I right, here?
My contention is that the test "market" will be horses for courses. Government will take a long view and focus on antibody testing; getting everybody back into offices, factories, shops etc will require repeated antigen testing. Depending on disease incidence waves, the former is likely to be more long-term than the latter. We still don't have a clear idea of exactly what immunity in conferred by antibodies and, for that, I suspect repeated antibody testing will be require.
Does any of this sound coherent to you ? Thanks again.
GeneGenie- May I ask a question, please? Statistically, testing accuracy figures are enhanced when the prevalence of active virus or active antibodies is high; have I got this right? Does this mean that, if hoped-for prevalence of active virus drops, the tests for active virus (antigen tests) become statistically less reliable? Conversely, if the prevalence of active antibodies rises, the tests for active antibodies become statistically more reliable ? Would appreciate your professional wisdom, here. Thank you very much.
Chester 18 and TheOldBee: I really appreciate your kind thoughts, thank you both. I know that you are both stalwarts of this TRX board. TheOldBee, I have appreciated your kindly and dignified comments, which are an example to us all. Chester18, you have been a deep source of information and encouragement. I started investing in TRX in January this year and have noted your comments from the outset. I have just joined LSE as a standard member.
My comments about TRX stand, although I am rather bearish about the markets generally. I am hopeful that the bio-tech sector may remain fairly defensive and encouraged that some very undervalued British bio-tech companies have caught the eye of US bio-tech investors, for whom some companies (and I very much include TRX) must look seriously cheap. Three of my principal long-holds are in the bio-tech sector; my fourth is a very derisked lithium miner(UK quoted) in the Czech Republic oriented towards electric vehicles. I try and choose companies which are ethically oriented that will benefit mankind in the long run. Anyway, once again thank you for your characteristically warm welcome and thank you both again for all your prior posts.