Member Info for EmeraldCarrots

which is about half as deadly as coronovirus. Most people under 60 (who would have to fork out about £10 to get it) can't be bothered!! LOL!

If the market panics then there is nothing much we can do but wait for it to see sense.
There are only 6 countries with over 100 cases.
Even if you are unlucky enough to get it you have a 98% chance of recovery.
China's workers have been/are going back to work. I presume they will manage the bug simply by testing people that feel ill to see if they have it. If so home to bed for 2 weeks. If it gets serious go to hospital.
China was able to seal off it's cities, but I doubt that will happen in most countries.
There are 2,000,000,000 in China and about 80,000 WERE ill. 33,000 of them have recovered.80,000 - 33,000 is 47,000. That is 0.0023% of the population.
I find it frustrating the BBC says 15 cases, and then the last line in the article says 8 of them have recovered. So we have 7. RUN FOR THE HILLS!!! A vaccine CAN be done we have been told.
I suspect if you can wait 3 months any investment in oil shares now will give you a 30% or more return. In fact next week with the OPEC meeting and PMO's results maybe 30% within 2 weeks?
All IMHO.

Correction. Consumption, not production!
heir consumption of oil will be increasing towards what it was before. The outbreaks of the virus elsewhere pale into insignifiance at the moment, not affecting oil consumption at least yet as far as I can see. Libya, Iran and venezuela still producing little oil. OPEC plus meet next Thursday. Current price of Brent $53 which seems ok for now. We could see Brent back to $60 in say 3 weeks time. Only $7 off if you think about it. This virus effect is overdone IMHO.
All IMHO.

their consumption of oil will be increasing towards what it was before. The outbreaks of the virus elsewhere pale into insignifiance at the moment, not affecting oil production at least yet as far as I can see. Libya, Iran and venezuela still producing little oil. OPEC plus meet next Thursday. Current price of Brent $53 which seems ok for now. We could see Brent back to $60 in say 3 weeks time. Only $7 off if you think about it. This virus effect is overdone IMHO.
All IMHO.

week! I still find this serious fighting between Turkey and Syria backed by Russia amazingly dangerous. Turkey has a million in it's army and is a member of NATO. They are basically fighting Syria backed by Russia are they not?? See this article:-
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-security-turkey/turkey-will-repel-syrian-forces-from-idlib-posts-this-week-erdogan-idUKKCN20K17P

It's Thursday 27th Feb now so assuming they are still on time the well is being spudded now. So one would have thought 88E (and PMO?) will be doing an RNS to confirm well spud. I see Tony Durant said this "We also look forward to drilling our first well in Alaska, a potentially transformational well for Premier." in the PMO RNS dated 7th January this year. Could well see a spike in the 88e share price when we get the RNS.
All IMHO.

as the rate of increase in China has almost STOPPED.
Looking at the statistics Singapore is now doing good as it had 92 confirmed, but now 62 have recovered.
The sudden increase in Italy smacks of a cover up. How on earth can the go from very few cases to 378 confirmed and 12 deaths in what..... 7 days is it?? No way. The doctors there must have been either covering up the obvious or totally incompetent. I suspect the first option. They should be arrested IMHO.
Iran. What can one say? All they will get is being further cut off from the outside world. Maybe the summer heat will come to our rescue here.
All IMHO

Added OPEX meeting next week (Thursday).

1. China slowly getting back to work. They report 2,715 dead, but on the other side they report 30,000 recovered.
2. Dow and NASDAQ up, FTSE improving.
3. Europe has good health care. A good chance the cases outside China will be constrained if not stopped. Summer on the way. Italy is hot in the Summer.
4. Iran. Not good. However their temps are 10c in day at the moment. BUT give it a month it should be 20c, and in 2 mponths 30c.
5. OPEC plus meeting next week. They will NOT want the oil price to go down any more and will no doubt try to support it by cutting production further.

1. China slowly getting back to work. They report 2,715 dead, but on the other side they report 30,000 recovered.
2. Dow and NASDAQ up, FTSE improving.
3. Europe has good health care. A good chance the cases outside China will be constrained if not stopped. Summer on the way. Italy is hot in the Summer.
4. Iran. Not good. However their temps are 10c in day at the moment. BUT give it a month it should be 20c, and in 2 mponths 30c.
I believe the USA markets are up mainly because China is getting back to work.
All IMHO.

At the end of the day you have to have close contact to get a disease. Now people know to keep their distance for now IMHO the spread will be stopped.............. give it 3 months.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-toll/mainland-china-reports-406-new-cases-of-coronavirus-on-feb-25-deaths-up-by-52-idUKKCN20K06L?il=0

in big trouble IMHO.

Best guess it's being dragged down by the rest of the market. Always happens when there are big drops. Some due to some selling to cover other positions etc..
I too found it amazing that we have 15% of a 2-300m barrel oil find in Mexico announdced just a few weeks ago.
Also about 30% of Cairns entire oil production for 2020 is hedged at over $60 !!
Maybe Cairn shares are a bargain??
All IMHO.

I'd have thought that little gen is rather important? From the RNS 21st Jan 2020:-
"Ø To date, Cairn has hedged 2.8m barrels of 2020 oil production, 1.9m barrels using collar structures with a weighted average floor price of US$62.09/bbl and a weighted average ceiling price of US$74.89/bbl and 0.9m barrels using swaps with a weighted average strike price of US$61.85/bbl ".
The currnt sp is NUTS imho.
All IMHO.

I think it goes without saying a production cut to compansate for China using less is the minimum that will happen.
Saudi wants Brent North of $70, but Russia was thinking $60 to $65. We are @ $55.66 as I type this.
Seems to me it's very likley they will be cutting more than just that needed to compensate for China.
Will be interesting.
All IMHO.

PMO's sp was more like £1.12, not the current 93p !!On the good side we have:-
1. OPEC plus meeting on Thursday 5th March, same day as PMO's results. Personally if they don't agree to reduce the oil supply I wil be astounded and then think they must all be stupid.
2. As someone else pointed out the weather is/will soon be warming up. Personally I am baffled why, in this day and age no-one in the entire World seems to know why flu seems to appear in the winter and practically disappear in the Summer! How on earth have the people in this field NOT found that out? Maybe it's something to do with sunlight on your skin for example? Or sweating more?? This is IMPORTANT so we really NEED to find out.
All IMHO.

am I missing something? I find this astonishing >>>
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-security/turkey-backed-rebels-say-theyve-seized-town-in-syrias-idlib-in-first-advance-idUKKCN20J0SI

Can't remember the share, but someone posted:-
"My broker phoned ME up begging me to sell THEM some".
LOL!

for Coronovirus. Shame our hospitals seem to be totally overloaded with normal every day health issues. Food for thought, Boris?
All IMHO.

RNS there was earlier. Frankly I was astonished. I now do not trust the directors of this Comoany at all. They will be lucky if thay don't get sued for misleading RNS's.
All IMHO.

the muscle to move the oil price either way, Coronovirus or not.
Alll IMHO.