Trying to be optimistic about oil price but based on what?30 Apr 2020 18:06
Yes, what?
OPEC plus will cut production by 10m a day from May. Great, but the World is using 30m barrels a day less than it was. So the other 20m barrels a day are going to come from the price being so low it costs some companies more to get the oil than they can sell it for. All very well in the long run but as far as I can see we have several months at least of massive over supply, that has already been going on for a couple of months......... at least!
Countries opening up again. That has barely started and by the looks will take months. The virus IMHO frankly will start to spread again IMHO and then some countries will ge back into lockdown. We need a vaccine (6 months minimum) then mass production of same (I guess minimum 4 months minuimum), then 3 or 4 billion people need to be injected in the World! 66m people in the uk alone, so as I understand it 60% need to be immune to stop spread. How long does it take to inject 40 million people? 6 months? A year? 18 moinths? 2 years??? Best UK only scenario - 6 months vaccine, production 4 months, maybe, just maybe 6 months to inject 40m people (sounds too tight frankly). So 16 months and that if you think about it would be almost silly fast. To produce and inject 60% of World population??? Got to be in excess of 3 years..... maybe 5 years?
I really hope I am wrong but I see absolutely no reason for the World price of oil to go up. None whatsoever. Down a shed load, yes. $15........... $10??
All IMHO.
So sorry to be negative but logically I cannot see any reason oil consumption will be more than supply for