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Hexam … I think it is (or more importantly so do the creditors committee per docket 1233 which is why they are looking into it). I like originally didn’t think it was but had forgotten about the probable banking covenant steps that will be unwound, what goodwill comprises (eg brand value) plus probably other things too

The other thing on goodwill is it could well be linked to a banking covenant so whichever way the goodwill figure ends up, has a relevance in one or more ways probably…

Some good quality debate tonight being expressed constructively.

Lots of people if there is a sale of assets likely will be hard wiring their calculators pressing numbers to come up with their “valuation” figure. Spreadsheets gone crazy.

The interesting point on $4bn in a going concern business is hidden in the definition of goodwill “excess of fair value paid over net book assets, computed on individual cash generating units” the hint being “fair value paid” … so it may well be negotiable asset

Bit like buying and selling a house … the buyer / seller usually have different views until they meet on a price. Same here.

Hexam, isn’t sale price a complex process not just what book value assets they have got, but net present value of future revenues/cash flow

Wolffie, here is one for you, creditors researching the $4bn odd of goodwill and whether that was a “negotiable asset” or had liens attached to it? Your view … don’t think you can dismiss it out of hand immediately, may be something to it …

Elvis could be right … my goodness I think I will kiss you all over, last time I tried to suggest the likely plan (a net operating loss equity Motion run by investec) I was shot down in flames

… but that’s another story unless you want to read it for your own eyes, docket 1233 where the creditors advisors committee want that to happen to!

Agree Wolff, DIP are first in line that’s why even with everything else going on and others getting a % share from sale of assets, there should be something left for us north of 4p.

I had another look today as the creditors committee advisors fee analysis, they are all over it like a rash sucking up to the debtors and what they were lining up on the marketing analysis since what other option do they have to get some money back. Another zip, nothing!

“Got them by the balls” “straight jacketed and handcuffed” “up the creek without a paddle” call it what you will, votes etc count for nothing, since there is no time for Plan B, they have already had an extension so they (ad hoc and creditors) are basically shafted and it’s C7 / fire sale for everyone if they don’t vote for what is put on the table next month

What exactly can the adhoc do in terms of a Plan B. Zip / nothing!

In other words Wolff, debtors and their advisers are king as they can straight jacket the adhoc and creditors into submission to vote on their plan (currently sale of assets) since everyone - judge and ad hoc - are otherwise out of time and C7 it is. Another way of saying it is “holding to ransom”

So debtors are king, not the adhoc, creditors or the judge!

Ever heard of “turkeys voting for Xmas” …. this is why the debtors are king, if they propose something bad, ad hoc and judge are out of time, so in their role as king they look like, from latest postings, is a sale of assets (with some jurisdictions remaining) within a C11 case.

They have ruled out takeover panel being involved but there is still a sale happening here that shareholders will have “some” say on.

Otherwise it’s C7 for everyone

Remember also it was the big swinging dick chief restructuring advisor who pulled off the DIP Agreement and release of $1bn of dosh …he appeared to do this by holding the lenders by the balls to within 20 minutes of the court hearing when they gave in, it’s the same guy from Alix Partners, James Masterhearm or something like that who has to hold his nerve t again this time around…

Would think it nearer 2 (remember 1 may be Cineplex) the marketing statement said they (the debtors) had “reached out” to 30, including competitors, and signed confidentiality agreements with “several” … can’t see AMC having the financial strength to buy, don’t even know who the third biggest is.

Wolffie, wouldn’t disagree the longer it goes on Ad Hoc get the whole lot as a D4E. I’m putting my store in the kind of things Slaughter and May and Kirkland and Ellis (debtors advisors) have put in their lawyers bills … the former are stoking the fire on the marketing process and swinging their big … d …icks - their nose was out of joint if you remember on the early January RNS that none of us could fathom

Takeover Panel ruled out as a C11 sale of assets, albeit the creditors committee were checking out the facts last month on this, and still have that sneaky interest on that and those tax losses …

… all of this allows a sale of assets bar bits of UK and ROW with us shareholders (and Mooky) getting something for our shares north of 4p … I think

According to

Wolffie… Ad Hoc are King
Me … Debtors are King
Ian Harding … Judge in King

Maybe it is our own King Charles III who could ride to the rescue!

Wolffie, I still do see the debtors holding some of the cards, ie they are intelligent enough to propose something in it for everyone (not turkeys voting for Xmas n their and our sake) … in other words as they have put a shot across the bows findividual lenders to “but out and don’t try and pull a fast one” …. they are in charge. They almost put the ad hoc group in handcuffs where they have no option to vote for it otherwise everyone is out of time

Debtors I imagine won’t get 2 chances going to the court to approve a plan … they have already submitted that plan, now have up to 30 interested parties in a sale that will be whittled down to 1 or 2.

Hello Wolffie, I think I would still (partially) disagree with you the reason being is the debtors take a crap plan to the ad hoc, what do the latter do, file for C7 or accept D4E and play the long game.

Because the debtors are in control which seems to include investec whatever they are upto, I would expect sales offers to be put forward to the Ad hoc group, it also protects what I believe is happening on the $700m odd tax losses that shareholders won’t let them have for free

So whichever lender has been trying to go it alone to get their cash back on an individual basis has been well and truly told to get knotted

Wolffie, I don’t think you are correct here that the adhoc lenders are the king makers, quite the opposite, the debtors have in fact said the opposite - to the judge no less - that they are in charge, to the extent they have 30 parties expressing some sort of interest. I would say that’s compelling.

Which pencil sharpener by the way?

Which one do you reckon I use Wolffie …?

https://www.ryman.co.uk/stationery/drawing-tools/sharpener

Tell you what Wolffie, I’m not bad for an office pencil sharpener or disgruntled university student that you once called me, my professor will be recommending me for graduation “magna cum laude”, maybe even now get to Harvard!

May even get an upgrade to a bic pen!

Srin, or vice versa, certain of the lenders may have become desperate and tried to go it alone and contact AMC; Bulls, no we don’t know the restructuring proposal, wish we did

Very interesting docket just posted before the judge! We may get an RNS in the morning….

https://cases.ra.kroll.com/cineworld/Home-DownloadPDF?id1=MjM0MTgwMg==&id2=-1