Member Info for Elsol

Gradual January SP uptrend expected to align to H1+H2 out performance announcement soonish and raw materials uptick observed by our diligent team members here ... Then we have the prospect of the share consolidation and US marketing campaign into new US investors to look forward to presumably by end of Q1. Once US investors get hooked in that will then drive SP appreciation back up to 10p area (pre consol price) - that is were ITX should be right now with a greater blend of longer term R&D Savvy investors.

SNG Board know they have a life saver here especially for new future emerging / severe respiratory viral mutants. An insurance policy for global health systems large future cost burdens for hospitalised targetted patients. Just read the understated / conservative message from 23Dec RNS ; Phillip Monk, CSO of Synairgen and Lead Author, said: "The results from the SG016[1] Phase 2 and the SPRINTER trial of SNG001 in hospitalised patients, and the ACTIV-2 trial in the home setting suggest that (DELETE word that) SNG001 may be (IS) preventing progression to severe disease. With these data we remain confident in the potential of SNG001 as a broad-spectrum antiviral for high-risk patient populations infected with respiratory viruses including influenza and RSV and are focused on its continued clinical development."

My feeling too. This 'sh*t works for sure with v low side effect profile. I'm very very surprised at the boll*cks share price right now....I think there is some structural problem in big pharma and governments not foreseeing the economic value of this little baby, certainly in 2022. But 2023 awakenings??

OMG Prof...we'll be talking about the X Files and ET shortly causing all of this..too much festive afternoon drinking going on here I see! LETS HOPE 2023 brings some Joy to silence all of this shareholder craziness so we have some proper commercial or clinical stuff to debate.

If we had a £50 treatment this alone would mean immediate big pharma interest to feed it to the masses...

They have to be reaching out BD / CORP DEV now to tier 2 mid cap specialty pharma and biopharma is my guess in parallel. " If you throw enough mud some always sticks"...thats what they seen tobe doing trying to position this as a disruptive long term agnostic anti infective therapeutic SNG001. I cannot see this drug not filling a gap in the market somewhere so we just need patience...and wait through this difficult news vacuum.

Dear Mani and co. All possible commercial routes need exploring. This is one of the fundemental principles of all good sales or BD strategies. If you dont agree doc go and get yourself a sales job. A few days ago, I sent a message to management via SNG Web site suggesting now maybe an opportunity to co-partner/collaborate with the Chinese Government in respect to a very very large scale Real World Evidence observational study using a patchwork geographic treatment approach (we know it works) . We supply product at cost of goods/manufacture, their local key medical institutes determine the protocol / patient target groups based around the known facts of SNG001 efficacy safety for main at risk and dosing at home formats etc etc and consider our advice for setup and high level reporting. One watches hospital case loads / deaths. We get the data flow in return. Simple. We finance working capital via interest free loan from Chinese Government or small equity raise.
Government takes kudos high ground to release covid restrictions. Economic benefit massive. Risk of using unproven technology from elsewhere is almost nil. Benefit massively outweighs downside.

I think you completely neglected the corp transactions events (M&A and BD&L) quite high probability that could play out here. How did you miss those positive ones?? Odd and unbalanced given the detail on other outcomes

Doc you are taking the stance of big pharma at the moment. There is minimal risk of covid patient deaths TODAY so hence no deal on table to date for RM and SNG as we have seen. This is correct of course from a historical perspective. But what's around the corner given viral potency to evolve? Is mankind just sitting waiting with minimal ammunition like before 2020? Or do we re-arm and prepare for the next battle that will come? We sit and wait

Doc d. Then if there were 6 cases per year of MERS then if a new wave of Omi circulates in any year there is a pretty good chance of cross interaction of the ssid viruses..maybe higher than England's chances of winning the next world cup. Bats also like camel poo too so it could self propergate that way from other species viral reservoirs (and vampire bats too that feed on camel blood). ?? + bat => risk for camel owners. I'm sure the second scenario is not quite proven but not out of the question ...

E.g. many sign posts all over the web site now: Estimated 3m+
people in US hospitalised annually from 2022 onwards due to severe VRIs

source: IQUVIA market research Q4 2022; Sources: US CDC, HCUP, IQVIA Claims Data, PubMed; data on file. Etc etc etc

Will big pharma connect the dots by end Q1 2023 on this RWE story and economic opportunity crested by growing US viral preparedness theme? What will win ? Short termism re: affordability v's longer term sensible logic prevailing for SNG001 Stockpiling for disaster planning given fantastic replicative ACTIV phase II Data?

Hold4results. We were certainly on the same wavelengths here. I did not read your post before pinging off mine. Weird eh? Maybe we are like minded thinkers??

There is a small risk of any one said arab camel owner getting co infected creating a MERS / Omicron sub variant hybrid super virus of course as we have seen in the past with such recombination. Then SNG001 will be needed for sure and EUA. If this sub variant risk does happen to evolve during 2023 then more people die and we shareholders run that risk aswell but we may die happy financially for our families left behind....!

Good find Brand. Positive welcoming influencing tail winds at last in EU and visible to be seen by big pharma to galvanise strategic thinking on assets they may want in their portfolio! Sng001?

Dippfs, my comment is for licensing the whole asset outright not just for COPD. Let's put it this way, there is a difference between price and value. The price we see today is heavily down weighted because of the vast majority of us douting investors; we are very wary being significantly under water (burned alive in fact) plus well over invested and will not invest (very risk averse for sure) further until there's a clear value crystallisation event or major stimulus like STRIVE inclusion. However the intrinsic value of this company looks to be much higher now we have some great extra efficacy signals (corroboration) and great safety data points on the development map that point to "this works well" as a generalised agnostic innate immune system viral defence solution with an established mode of action story (viral defence akin to antibiotics) to tell patients/prescribers (and payors indirectly to reduce hospitalisation costs),
with fantastically low side effects observed, and especially beneficial if you use it early with people with known risk factors or genetic defects of the innate immune system or those already immune compromised. I don't think it's out of the question to get an upfront payment of roughly this £150m magnitude plus future weighted milestones and royalties if things turn out favourably with 1 or 2 large pharma cos negotiations. The only reservation as always is our relatively high drug price point but I think the balance will tip soon into a JV deal since BP has to be crazy not to want to spend tiny beer money (£150m upfront) for the rights to all the upside profit there could easily be here in wide commercialisation and extension of label and potential for off label use for any old suspected respiratory virus and COPD asthma suffers in hospitalised settings.

Forgot to add, I think a licensing deal is far more likely due to the branched / sequential nature of all the revenue extensions from discrete viral segments etc that makes estimation of a cash price point estimate very difficult to determine (as cash on day 1 of a T/O) and that fact limits the price any BP would shell out upfront day 1. So in fact the best value optimisation for shareholders would be a stepwise licensing deal or one complete one with good royalties on sales itrespective of where tevenues are generated. Either way our value should be well above £ 2.25ps.

With respect guys this baby is worth far more than £2.25 with all the latest newsflows that hasn't as yet crystallised in the stock price..yet! so don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. We now know this blooody thing works and has a fantastic side effect profile. It's a bit like a cannabioid drug in fact. Negative adverse events if I recall the data. The only thing holding us back( slightly ) is the drug price tag but the weight of evidence across multiple viral types will overwhelm the resistance that exists then the wall of money will flow so to speak as a JV or TO. That's my opinion so we wait for the end game to be unravelled during early 2023....but don't sell 100% of your holding to make 10% to 50% return is my guidance but you are welcome to your own strategy. It's your dosh.

It's because it's preclinical. V early stage so may never crystallise further payments from AZ or indeed those small royalty payments as probability of launch guess of 5%. SNG's upfront payment with a similar but later stage deal will be say 15 to 25% of the value of the asset licensed. So maybe we would get GBP150m+..and double digit royalty... however we wait for that (still)

Thanks Brand, looks great PR and informing BP what we have under our bonnet!

Don't forget this is a massively (already) invested R&D business with significantly protected IP, great long term blue chip branded client contracts and it's not all about short term PE generation in the valuation. It's part of the story but if a large new client comes on stream or new application gets derisked or revenues above expectation then that will drive near term stock price alot since presently the stock price is only say c.25% of original cost of investment. Cheap as chips. It will spring back lively rest assured into or before early 2023. You saw what happened during the uplift to 15p in no time, albeit bit early ....2023 though??