ADVFN LTHs2 Apr 2025 09:49
FYI - repasting my post over on ADVFN since these guys appear to be a little behind the curve as at 31 March 2025:
"Look ADVFN team - things are not as glum as you make out:
1. The new ITX strategy is successfully being delivered with increased focus on value-added performance ingredients with better margin potential - commercial is new 2024/25+ focus with SPARX and excellent web-site in place, after the clunky, unconvincing, non-impactful prior one was thankfully binned
2. Clearly ITX Board rejected the 'low profit' customer in Q2 24 from a position of pipeline knowledge and strength - short term we all thought this was a bad decision - but in hindsight it was an informed, commercially savvy decision that is value maximising for ITX in the medium term
3. The US tariff impact issue has been well over-feared as observed in Q1 SP decline - it was clearly communicated on 31 March by John that they do not consider it as a significant issue since (a) most ITX costs are US derived costs,(b) possibility of Canada supply-side competitive benefit as US manufacturer and (c) some levers to pull on COGS reduction as ITX grows to mitigate any otherwise adverse impact
4. Professional investor round was 5.1p-ish in old money (pre-consolidation). We are at roughly half that level right now with a 2025F heading close to $10m sales and cusp of breakeven and reduced cash burn. Val Multiple is only 1.7ish at EV/sales level for 2025 so large upside from this 'cheap as chips' base value aligned to, say, 2.6p in old currency.
5. Admittedly, we were all taken in with the large uplift to 15p/share which was inappropriate for sure but equally we are now on the other side of the range entirely at 2.6p/share (old money equivalent) - neither are correctly aligned to ITX value today, but there is now large upside on a value / risk balance grounds - that's why I topped-up quite a bit at 126.4."