Member Info for elrico

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1464605298757406733

According to sharepad, 2022 PE falls to 30. As for the spinouts at 9p, I'm afraid that's patently not right, as POLB 10p has already demonstrated. So DIM will almost certainly attract a higher valuation at the IPO than POLB? It remains to be seen if DIM will be more valuable in 2-3 years.

Some peeps are incorrectly assuming the spinouts will result in ORPH being an empty vessel. Utter nonsense, ORPH will be a pure CRO company with no distractions and a higher valuation. The clue is "non-core assets." They are not seen as valuable core assets inside ORPH until they become their legal entity, with their board structure allowing them to build on their strategy at their speed, with their cash resources.

Investors bemoan the SP fall while ignoring a slight offset with their POLB at 10p and its future potential. Similarly, DIM could be 15p at IPO. My guess is DIM will IPO somewhere between 10-15p—possibly more, subject to demand. Again, I guess it will IPO just before the ISA season, perhaps in late February, March. I think there will be a lot of demand for DIM.

Bear,

ORPH has delivered three RNS's in November, two = £6.6m new cash. Once upon a time, these would have resulted in the share price increase on a positive path. However, sentiment has changed this. There are many reasons for this; primarily, retail investors do not appreciate the opportunity; they see a depleted share price and the emotional baggage that comes with it.

As for earache, he reaped what he sowed. So please do not portray the fellow as some white knight - On the contrary, he. He is a rude, condescending, patronising individual who asserted he was the only person 100% correct 100% of the time.

His opening salvo to me was to call me an ********. My crime, discussing ORPH business-building strategy. I had not communicated with him or insulted him, yet he thought it perfectly correct to hurl abuse at me.

AquaeSulis01,

Refreshing. Too many peeps take alternative POV as personal slants.

AquaeSulis01,

"elrico deemed it necessary to correct me and distinguish between the two and wrongly."

I seem to have offended you. Apologies if this is the case, it is not my intention to offend anyone, least of all an investor.

At the considerable risk of a circular debate, I am prepared to agree one RNS appears to carry more weight in your favour than the one I produce. But, no matter, our egos are not as important as the end goal.

I have previously spoken to SA because of the wording in the RNS. He explains Croda has manufactured and plan to scale up production of the lysate. Sederma's role is to supply their clients with quantities of the lysate in powder form. It is possible I have not been paying attention to SA. He may have been saying Sederma has scaled up production and not Croda.

3rd Mar 2020
"As announced in November 2019, SkinBio has an agreement with Croda International PLCto develop, manufacture, and commercialise SkinBiotix technology. Any licensed products resulting from this agreement will be sold to Croda's portfolio of Personal Care customers."

AquaeSulis01,

You mean Croda. Sederma supply the magic, Croda manufacture it.

I assume so because if there was a problem it would require an RNS. I touch base with SA next week, so I will double check.

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1461690714241343491

No there isn't. The LSE aggregate can't work out the bid and offer have narrowed.
https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1461690714241343491

Researcher,

Elrico, "do you have a hunch as to when the Sederma parade will be taking place?"

I have no clue. Given the launch in Q4 I would be astounded if Sederma had not already signed up their VIP clients. I would imagine they will be wrapped up in NDA's until one of them sings like a lark when they launch a new product.

Thomascromwell,

I did not view your comments as questions of my integrity. Now you confirm you confess you did...off with your head, sir! :)

Leave him to it. If the fool has not worked out, he is assisting in raising AxisBiotix awareness by now; he is dumber than I ever thought. He made the same mistake trash-talking me and posting links to my Twitter feed. Net result, 100s of more followers. He's a marketing genius, and he doesn't know it. :-)

Read my update again. I don't believe I have been sitting on the fence. I have spoken to both CEO. There is not much Stuart can do if a shareholder wants to sell, other than assist placing them.

SA cannot stop investors from selling shares in SBTX. You realise this. SA was put in a position to help place them or not. It's that simple.

Don't forget Leicester and investors that subscribe or follow. I know it is a broader audience than the IMC or proactive. I know the size of their audience. Anyway, which is it? Too many comms or not enough comms?

It was recorded; I just chose not to make it available; I preferred to create an editorial instead.

Try sitting back and relaxing; instead of winding yourself up, it's the road to ruin. Hangin on every RNS is not suitable for your health.

Today's contract is more significant than £1.5m; some of you are scoffing. It represents a boost to the longevity of an established partnership; we should be applauding, not scoffed at, because it's not one of the 2big-ones!"
https://small-company-champion-investing.letterdrop.com/c/open-orpan-plc

I'm quoting Stuart.

AquaeSulis01,

Thanks for the link. I had not seen the proactive interview.

I understand the context of Stuart's comments now; you quote, "We have been repeatedly told by Stuart that the soft launch is a Supply Constrained launch and that the interest indicated that demand will outstrip supply." You; Now, if you believe that there is less demand than supply, I would call that very disappointing.

We don't know how much AxisBiotix was produced and stored?
We don't know if there is 2, or 3, or more production runs planned?
We don't know the level of demand?
We don't know the sales uptake?
We don't know the repeat (subscriptions)?
We don't know how the sales orders numbers are used?

It seems to me we are already trying to second guess demand in just two weeks of a two-month shipment. Moreover, we are in danger of overlooking the bigger picture because a few order numbers have been posted, and we don't know if these are split into territories?

If SBTX is soon to be Wincloves biggest client, then Wincloves must be very concerned.

Can we not just be patient and wait for guidance from the company before we start panicking?

There are several points to make; first, there is no reason AxisBiotix cannot be taken with an existing treatment. Second, it is a natural probiotic with well known, tolerated good bacteria. Finally, consumers may choose to reduce their current treatment to suck it and see before halting already established treatment.

"We have been repeatedly told by Stuart that the soft launch is a Supply Constrained launch and that the interest indicated that demand will outstrip supply. Now if you believe that there is less demand than supply I would call that very disappointing."

I guess the perception of AxisBiotix demand outstripping supply could be drawn from Stuart's language. However, this is not my reading; he implies he wants to avoid logistic issues and supply chain issues. As part of this strategy, the company has commissioned a large warehouse to stock the product. In addition, the batch numbers suggest multiple batch runs have been complete, which means tens of thousands of units have been produced already and ahead of the launch.

What we do not know at this stage is the level of demand. I would suggest ignoring order numbers because I am almost certain the USA will be different to the UK sequence and possibly other territories. However, I forewarned Stuart investors would seek to track the order numbers, just as we did with the OptiBiotix Online store. It is my guess Stuart is shrewd enough to put defences in place against this. After all, it is a perfectly natural step to take ahead of official numbers.

TW suggested today, in his bearcast, some of his subscribers had been sending in pictures of orders; this led him to conclude the orders "maybe pretty material." Quite what this means in terms of numbers is anyone guess.

The caveat assumption is OPTI ex stock.

The discount is not that great over the few days. However, as TW predicted, the locking was drawing to a close, so it is likely (with hindsight/assumptions) the sales to various institutions and or HNWI has been in the pipe for more than a few days; this sort of event takes weeks, if not months planning. In which case, the discount is far more significant, even if we account for the c20 fall in SBTX since TW first discussed the likelihood OPTI would sell post locking. Assuming Cenkos, broker to both parties, are involved, they will have been circling city clients and HNWI asking if they wanted any SBTX. Hence the decline/forward selling in the blocks of 10/15/20/25/50k.

My hope is these all have a locking agreement, as is per the norm. As long as SP Angel are not involved, I am not concerned for the short term movement of SBTX.

I wouldn't concern yourself over DIM spin before Imutex, they're independent, with different teams working at different paces.

DIM is expected to be the next newco spin. It doesn't follow Imutex will be after, it could be before DIM IPO early 2022.

I'm of the opinion we are over the worst of the bad sentiment, so add from profits elsewhere while I can. It rude not to. :)

https://smallcompanychampiona88.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-258

I think I've nailed it. Monday will confirm it, or otherwise.