Member Info for elrico

Wager, stt1 tried the same tactic over the weekend.

Are you one of these ladies who like to supplant words that have not been said and then return and claim another promise has been broken? "Promise" has been thrown around like confetti, and seems to be a stated fact CF has broken...how many promises? I don't ever recall any CEO ever using the word, least of all CF.

The key take is "there are 4-5 more details being negotiated." I asked the value? £3-6 million per deal. These deals are likely to push the booked revenues to over 100% of the 2022 forecast, with COVID-19 playing a bonus supporting role. CF backed away from offering specific timelines because these are not in his gift because he is not in control of 3rd party signatures.

ORPH are often negotiating with larger corporates that march to the beat of their own drum, not ORPH's.

IMHO, ORPH investors will be in a much better headspace in the new year. These past few months have been horrendous. Even the sane and the savvy that has seen all this before will have been tasted.

This is the time of year some of the more experienced investors place buy orders below the current market price because they know there are always retail PI's taking money out of the market to pay for Christmas, and holidays, etc. The is prime time transfer of wealth. A good relationship between the broker and MM will flush weak holders out quite easily.

OPTI investors here will recall evidence provided a very good real-time example of a good friend that wanted a quantity of stock at 4p cheaper. The SP was 1.75p up at the time the order was put to the MM via his broker. The shares closed 3.25p down, yet his order accounted for 2/3rds of the book for that day. Even peeps with L2 access were baffled. It is smoke and mirrors even for experienced investors.

stt1,

You quoted me correctly in the first instance. You then plant words like, "guarantee and received" into the discussion. Why did you feel the need do this? You're making an issue out of adding context that was never implied or intended by me.

Thanks, BC,

TBF to Jim (leaving aside the skulduggery), I sympathise with his predicament. If my gey matter is not failing me (entirely possible), Jim works for an Irish airline, and we know what a difficult time airline cabin crew have had during the pandemic. Sure, most of us have suffered financially, emotionally, etc., some peeps cope better than others. I guess the cash divi may have eased some distress? It is not pleasant watching your investment ride to ALH, then retraces while the company continues to build momentum and become a better investment prospect into the bargain. Sometimes AIM defies logic!

I wish you well, Jim. But I sincerely believe you are about to make a mistake I am certain you will regret in the coming weeks. I realise this is easy to say when I do not know your circumstances.

Bear,

Price sensitive news must be announced through RNS at its earliest practicality. It could not have been disclosed had the market been open during the interview publication. If proactive were aware before the interview during market hours, they would have probably signed an insider register, a legal electronic document with legal consequences, if said, acted on the inside.

If you think about it logically, RNS publishers are always inside under their role.

stt1,
90% of 2022 revenues "booked now and could be 100% plus by the YE or early 2022." CF has previously stated COVID work is expected to add to this. A pretty solid position to be in.

Just a minute in... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5BUghTUOzg

Jim,

Most of the issues you complain about have been evident for some time, and well before this post from you!

Don't go flying any time soon!

jimbo63 Premium Member

Posted in: ORPH

Posts: 126

Price: 25.50

Strong Buy

Big thing coming???08 Sep 2021 19:41
I don’t know about you but I have a feeling big things are about to happen. I’ve been in since June 2020 and I’ve seen the company grow from strength to strength and our reputation grow and grow, but just lately I’ve seen so much positive coverage from high places and respected organisations. I see a big re-rate coming over the next few weeks and months. We’re in the right place at the right time!

Jim,

Let's not twist the facts to suit your emotional outburst. A number of the points you raised were discussed in the interview; in short, the landscape changed, so the ORPH strategy changed with it. It is what sensible BODs do, and they adapt to the environment.

You claim, " I saw Elric with my own eyes tell his close friend off for asking proper questions of CF." You mean you heard! What you heard was Mark and me having a bit of banter about the no-holds-barred both barrels at CF. I thanked him for, in a jovial manner. Moreover, Joined me and CF later for a drink.

As for being on the ORPH payroll...seriously! What next? I work for a syndicate? This is the sort of BS levelled at TW by disgruntled BBMs. Both ORPH and POLB paid to be at the IM, and all funds were donated to Menphys charity. You can scroll down the list of donors, where you will see multiple donations in my name and Small Company Champion.

This was me helping out #TwinPetesChallenge to support Menphys disability charity. We held an investor meeting that raised over £4k, £1.8k on the night. We did this by donating all fees and subscriptions thereof (50%). https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/twinpeteschallenge

I have helped raise over 1/3rd of the £19k these guys have raised.

I get you frustrated and angry, I also have, but I don't blame other people for it or attempt to sully other people's names. So grow a pair, sell up, whatever. But leave me out of your BBM campaign thanks.

Cathal also discusses POLB in his podcast recorded yesterday. I suspect POLB will embark on a busy period quite soon.

https://youtu.be/n5BUghTUOzg

GG,

You ask, "Do you know what eps dilutive means and how to do the calculation?"

Sorry, pal - you are flogging a dead horse. Moreover, you chose not to explain your logic. I was assuming you were concerned about the reduction in the cash. But now I see it is worse than that.

A share buyback cannot be dilutive. Look up the meaning of dilutive.

A buyback improves rather than waffle on about P/E's and improving financial metrics, a buyback improves, allow me to provide an excellent free educational resource. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/041702.asp

Please don't assume I am dissing you. I am more inclined to help.

Dubliner,

"Elric, one thing for you as you talked about the 10p POLB SP in the interview.
We need to factor in the ratio at which we were allocated our 'free' shares. I believe it was roughly one for every three ORPH share we had so the value to us holders of POLB is closer to 3p per share than 10p; that's how I see it anyway."

It's a fair point, and the correct way to view the in-specie. However, I am a simple fellow that likes to keep these sorts of details simple, that is because most of the retail investors will take their value perspective from the IPO price, and the number of free shares gifted.

Ref incoming CEO. I am not sure how quickly this will happen, given the priority at this stage is brokering the next 4-5 £3-£6 million contracts. No doubt at all OO needs more staff at the helm to assist in steering the ship. CF is a deal maker, and perhaps feels he is better suited to the chairman role than CEO because he is too thinly spread. It is clear there is a lot more going on behind the scenes than many of us appreciate. This is why the strategy change in delaying the spinout of non-core assets. It is a great problem to have, but we have been punished, in part because of this.

For those of you that took the time to watch the interview and offer feedback, thank you. It is appreciated. Perhaps consider registering to the sites, this way you get notifications of new editorials and interviews.

GG,

Perhaps you can explain how a share buyback would be "highly dilutive?"

Ordinarily, a share buyback results in the shares being cancelled or held in treasury. This typically results in improved financial ratios, such as Earnings Per Share.

Dilution is issuing more shares, increasing liquidity, but diluting existing shareholders.

The market typically perceives share buyback as a positive indicator for a company, and the share price often has a positive response following a buyback. Moreover, it is a strong indicator that the company has no intention to raise new funds for working capital or growth strategy, and has no balance sheet concerns.

Not all share buybacks work. SPSY has been buying its own shares, but this was not a good idea, as I stated at the time because the shares are already too illiquid, the share buyback made this worse still, which is not good if your preference is a liquid market. It certainly disincentives traders. Yup, some peeps hate traders, but they are a good thing if you adopt a strategy with them in mind because it can allow for accumulating stock, assuming you have not already thrown the kitchen sink at the company.

GG,

Barley an hour before the market closed. I did intend to post in the evening, mainly because I am not familiar with hosting vids on Youtube. It was easier than I thought. Only a handful had started to watch the vid before the market closed.

It was a real shame CF was struggling for time. Unfortunately, he was late, so I guess I am lucky to get it done at all. He has agreed to do another to address more questions later.

titan,

"So we got some clarity and visibility on revenue £40m -£50 m per year. Is £60 m per year going forward in 2023 - another case of exuberance."
Let's see, but remember, this is a non-covid forecast.

" I really would have like to know about profit margin going to the bottom line. It was mentioned as 20 -30 percent."

From memory, I think the 2022 margin forecast is c36%?

CF is not the only BOD of a PLC blaming furlough PI's for the retracing of their SP. IMHO, there is some merit to this because there has been a lot of talk about a new wave of retail investors that entered the market during the furlough. Moreover, few would have developed a strategy to cope with the change in market sentiment, as they were used to everything recovering sharply. ORPH would have been on a lot of retail investors radar.

" only suggestion is to let CF explain and not to feed him with explanations or excuses and that is when it can lose credibility."

A fair and reasonable observation. Thanks for the feedback.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5BUghTUOzg

Skid,

Pete's are worth a regular listen, particular for newer retail investors because their content also has an educational feel to it from real-world experience. Both guys are as honest as day. No BS, not hindsight nonsense.

OPTI update has just gone up. No Doubt Sheedy will be complaining it's behind a paywall again. He's taken to pretending to be a concerned investor now. Whatever next! :)

Thank you, AquaeSulis01.

Also, I supported #TwinPetesChallenge to support Menphys disability charity. We held an investor meeting that raised over £4k, £1.8k on the night. We did this by donating all fees and subscriptions (50%). Yesterday, I offered to gift all new subs to the charity for the final Christmas push. https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/twinpeteschallenge

I have helped raise over 1/3rd of the £19k these guys have raised.

You can see our donations via Elric and Small Company Champion.

This is what irks me the most. I am trying to help charities, and a small minority attempt to undermine this because of their agenda against me. It is petty and shortsighted and may undermine my part with said companies.

CEO's have described me as an important conduit between BOD, and investors
I have access to BOD and collate questions and relay the answers. Wallbroke is not efficient in this regard.
A high degree of SP appreciated with most of the companies I feature (15) IN 2021
The sub is pa.

I am not forcing anyone to pay. They have a right to tell me to bog off. Most investors prefer to do their own research, some are even very good at it. My service is for people that do not have the time, skill-set, patience or the will to navigate endless nonsense posted on the forum.

Over the years I have noticed the level of quality research posted by intelligent investors has dropped off dramatically because of trolls, abuse, and agendas. So, IMHO, there is a need for what I do, and I do it for a reasonable fee everyone can easily afford. If it is not of the quality they want, they don't renew. This particular individual seems to be on a mission because he doesn't want to pay £35 that offers him access to both OPTI and SBTX.

I was sent an email suggesting it's TW attempting to cut me off at the knees. I hope not, I'm only 5.6" as it is. -)

This BBM that posed this question clearly has an agenda against me, but somehow never protests about the SP paywall, which is NEVER offered FOC at a later date. I wonder why? Would the keyboard warrior care to enlighten me, please? SP is also private (if we are to use your terms). What do I do differently to TW that so irks you?

A point of fact. I do not run a paywall chat room, that is a blatant lie. Moreover, if my "dubious analysis" is as you suggest, why do you try so hard to persuade CEOs from engaging? My role is not too dissimilar to TW's. We both seek to assist investors, and potential investors by engaging with management by asking questions of concern and trying to explain particulars investors may not otherwise understand, etc.

I note you were not complaining when the podcasts were published FOC. Is this really about £35? Utter pathetic, and false economy. I go through my investment life by attempting to attain as much info as possible, and yes, sometimes I pay for it because it may help with making informed decisions. I don't ***** and whine about it, especially if it helps support my own thesis.

You are a pathetic, vindictive individual that is attempting to ruin my business, and reduce engagement with BOD/Investors, which contradicts your rant.

One of two things will happen here. I am unsure if you will like it, and others may like it even less. We shall see soon enough.

IMC: Q7: "Please can the company make efforts to improve its shareholder communication and accessibility. The lack of engagement by the board this year has been a source of considerable frustration for me and many other investors. I am particulary exasperated by the fact that what little communication there is from Stephen is usually with a private blogger who publishes interviews and analysis behind a delayed paywall. This blogger also runs a paywall chatroom and has a number of disciples who are (were) substantial shareholders in OPTI. This individual maintains a bizarre relationship with both Stephen and Stuart Ashman of SBTX, and his rather dubious analysis of both companies evidently exerts considerable influence with these investors. That in itself is nothing out of the ordinary in the junior market, but when there is little other commentary or investor engagement from Stephen outside of these paywall channels, in my opinion that shows a lack of respect for shareholders. "

How do you know Belgrano is not correct? I'd wager we will be pleasantly surprised about the level of subscription take up when we do get the data, say by the interim, if not before. Let's face it, if the "repeat" subscriptions are well ahead of the Cenkos "FY numbers for 2022," then the company must update the market.

SBTX is BE with c1600 subscriptions. The trick is being confident there are enough regular subscriptions with churn rates. Stuart will not take risks by going too early.

Those types of trades are often between MMs to fulfil an order. You tend to see far more of those transactions with very liquid companies.