RE: The next ULTA BEAUTY INC ?23 Oct 2024 00:29
Belgrano,
Let’s start with the first point: this was a podcast with four investors, not exactly a Nobel lecture series. The nuances you’re missing are because you’re reading secondhand commentary—always a great way to misunderstand everything. The podcasters like me, Toyin, PJ and McGeever. I get the audience will not be familiar with author’s price guesstimates humour (if you can call it that). But let’s give credit where it’s due. McGeever isn’t just some random person with a calculator; they’ve built a business from scratch, sold it, and walked away with over 50,000 employees on the payroll (not to mention a huge fat wedge). Not bad for a “guessing” kind of person, right?
Search Transgaurd Group 12 employees to over 50,000 in around 12 years.
https://transguardgroup.com
BTW, he's chaired a few companies and started another project that’s now absolutely flying—generating more revenue in three years than OPTI or SBTX could dream of combined at their current phase. I expect this is about to change in SBTX's case. So yes, the upper figure may sound completely bonkers today (I’ll admit that), but let's not act like the PLC world hasn’t seen crazier things. I mean, come on, we can all list a few billion-dollar businesses that started in someone’s garage, can’t we?
BTW, the lower figure is seriously achievable. I am not willing to say which Easter or Christmas if you excuse me.
As for SBTX, they’ve got big plans—some of which we, as investors, clearly haven’t wrapped our heads around yet. And as for that ever-recycled AxisBiotix comment... let’s skip that one because, honestly, we’ve been over it a thousand times. Yawn. Yes, I get it; some investors are still nursing deep emotional scars, and yes, trust takes time to rebuild.
I know investors are getting concerned about rumours OPTI has been dumping stock again. But let’s not throw today’s events at SBTX’s feet. They have zero control over what another PLC decides to do with their time and money, and frankly, they’ve got about as much power over another company’s board as I do over my neighbour’s terrible taste in garden gnomes.
I provided a list of commercial agreements by product, partner, region and estimated worth, with links to each. I even informed readers when a product webpage was no longer active (via the old blog). That took balls because I got mine kicked a few times. I guess you missed it.
I’ve got no clue where the £5m figure was pulled from, to be honest. We were given small, medium, and large estimates—that’s all. And unless I’m completely missing your point, that seems pretty fair. These numbers weren’t something I just dreamed up either; they were straight from SOH’s mouth. In fact, he even repeated them in a podcast, just to really hammer it home.
Show me your scar and I will show you mine. :)