Member Info for Ella10

Sorry Kully,
I thought you realised David Wood was already busy in Australia ;-).

Hi Fulmar,
I do actually quite like SeisNav's model. The visual depiction is excellent but it's accuracy is constrained by the information available. I am sure SeisNav would like the complete information on the drills so that his detective work could go further. For example are the sulphide hits really at similar depths at that distance apart. Between the sulphides how deep did the drills go? Were there no sulphides found or did the drills just not go that deep? ARC seem reluctant to give too much information on the drills in case it makes the results look poorer. Publishing the complete information gives people like SeisNav more data to work on which could be beneficial to ARC's chances of understanding the mineralisation in the area. SeisNav has obviously put significant effort into producing the model and hypothesising about the mineralisation in the area.
'The grades are a fact and the one directional model shows a cross section of drills and grades'
I assume that the grades are correct (I haven't tried to check but I don't believe there is any intention to deliberately mislead) but the cross section is unlikely to be correct as the drills are likely to be at different angles and directions. The cross section cannot account for this as the data is unknown.

The following rns states the case against Zamsort is without merit and not expected to proceed.
hTTps://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/media-speculation-impxpn2ydlh5o6s.html
The settlement RNS is unclear as to what assets are held in Zamsort. It is clear Zamsort is being lost as part of the settlement.
hTTps://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/settlement-of-all-legal-cases-ys1iehcmf5u84y2.html

The following RNS has target completion of scoping study H1 2021. This was confirmed in the May 2021 investor call.
hTTps://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/first-phase-of-proof-of-concept-study-completed-uhd2guj2gz5t0ct.html

NVS expected a JORC resource on the Zambian assets within 6 months of 2nd July 2019.
5min 50s in
hTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kmnYdIqoveM

The following tweet stated ARC were fully funded
hTTps://mobile.twitter.com/arcminerals/status/1369551092762243076
Two weeks later there was a placing announced.
hTTps://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/proposed-placing-and-acquisition-lzasjvzda590jzm.html
The following note from SP Angel on Feb 2021 investor call states deeper drilling was already planned (I guess someone mislaid their notes).
hTTps://www.**********.co.uk/post/602bb47ffd2f40001b7b3aa6
Why the placing 2 weeks after stating they were in the strongest cash position for many years? I wonder when the placing shares were sold.....

The following RNS describes the surrender of options
'The Company has taken that decision to reduce the potential dilutive impact which would arise from the exercise of share options in order to optimise the potential upside of its value per ordinary share of the Company.'
'In order to protect the cash resources of the Company, the compensation schedule will be phased over the next 3 years at the Company's discretion ("Payment Period") and which would coincide with the expected cash flows of the Company's planned Cheyeza East plant.'
A director has been issued with further options since the above. The directors have already paid themselves a chunk of this jackpot. I'm not aware of any cash flow from Cheyeza!!
hTTps://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/surrender-of-share-options-fa0z2z4thy37dhb.html

Sale of Casa, Sale of Casa , Sale of Casa...
Interestingly the following gives the ongoing OPEX on Casa as being just under $40k a month so just under half a million dollars a year.
45 Seconds in
hTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7jtQrrk9G2s

What has happened to the results of the survey that was discussed in last May's investor call and again in the Feb call?

SeisNav has pointed out the locations of some drills are difficult to determine. There is also pretty much zero information on
the angle or direction of any of the drills.

Circa 80m 3p warrants expire in June.

Can NVS deliver an attractive deal with a major?

The majority of assay results give no information on the angle or direction of the drill so being able to produce a model is rather impressive!

Hi Howezap,
Pages 5 an 6 of the Apr 2020 presentation show some of the major faults that pass through the Bushranger licences.
ELA5168 as shown on the April 2020 presentation is an application. I assume that they couldn't quote the licence when the original presentation was prepared because it was up for renewal. It was renewed to June 2021 and has since been renewed again to June 2024.
This RNS states an application was in for renewal that was expected to be granted.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-drilling-update-and-licence-renewal-lsjo4k2b1lrbgzo.html
Geoscience NSW shows that EL8585 has been renewed to June 2024.

Happy Easter :-).

I agree lots of new to come. However, I'm not convinced that we will hear about any discussions related to the sale until a deal is done (be that with AA or someone else).
The other thing I have on my 'list ' is the survey results from the Legacy Minerals tenement. They are surveying the area pretty much right next door to one of our other licences -
' airborne magnetic and radiometric survey will to be flown in late April, with results and interpretation expected in early May'.

There are quite a lot of what look like new applications in the Zambia Mining Cadastre all dated 11th Apr. It looks like approx 170 applications have been submitted but quite a few of these have presumably been processed and no longer exist. I'm not sure if these are new applications or the result of what has been happening due to the audit.
I don't see any impact to the GLR licences.

Hi Teaye,
Do as I say not as I do?
'I contacted Rackla again yesterday and had a response overnight confirming they are still on track to close the financing and to be onsite to start work by 31st March 2022.'

Bannon Limited were going to acquire the Kalaba project off MM and co in 2012. The acquisition didn't complete due to what was reported to be an issue with DD. No detail was given. The prospectus issued at the time has some interesting info on historic exploration including drill results. There are a lot of caveats around the historic exploration quoted in the report but I found it interesting. Minor chalcocite is mentioned.
It is the 13th Apr 2012 prospectus here

https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/bnx/announcements/page-2?exchange_code=asxhttps://hotcopper.com.au/asx/bnx/announcements/page-2?exchange_code=asx

Apparently CB is in Oz. I wonder if he will bump into Sandfire?

Hi Andy,
The licences here shown in blue
https://www.sandfire.com.au/site/Business/sandfire-emea/Tshukudu-Exploration

Once you have a map showing the shape of the different licences the jigsaw prize is fairly simple. You might still find the email worth sending...

Hi Andy,
You may wish to contact the email address here and ask how to obtain a copy of the metals mineral.map.
https://www.gov.bw/mining/sale-maps

I await with bated breath. Perhaps NVS will manage to GIVE AWAY some more licences?

AFP is also seeing a nice rise. I wonder if there is any link?

The following is from POW's operational update
'The proposal from Kavango Resources to acquire Kalahari Key did not lead to a successful outcome, further details of which were announced on 22/03/2022 and may be viewed here:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/POW/kalahari-key-update-ditau-drilling-commences/15379084
This was disappointing; however, we are working with Kalahari Key and its shareholders to find a suitable way forward.
The first drill programme announced in 2021 confirmed nickel results up to 1.7%. The next step is a follow-up round of drilling, which we are seeking to undertake urgently.
The Molopo Farms Complex Project has attracted considerable interest and we intend to capitalise on that interest and the positive technical findings to date.'
I wonder if discussions with KAV are still happening. The last sentence sounds to me suspiciously like an IPO still on the cards.

I wonder will the licences need to be sorted before any JV is agreed. The following is from the settlement RNS
'The group will also consent to the claimant parties applying for the 8 square kilometre small mining and small exploration license areas that were previously in existence at Zamsort prior to Arc's involvement and which currently form part of Handa's licence 19906-HQ-LEL. '
The above doesn't guarantee MM and co that they will be able to get Kalaba operating again. I am surprised if this is a complete reflection of this area of the agreement. I would expect to see an application in the mining cadastre for this area. I would also expect the SEL/SML be granted before any deals on ARC's licence areas are drafted. It is unclear whether a complete new application for a mining licence is required. This could take several months to be granted once an application is lodged. I appreciate that the settlement agreement RNS does not mention anything about the approval of a mining licence. I also realise it is out of ARC's control whether the Ministry for Mines approves an application. Has anyone seen anything remotely similar play out on any other JV agreements?
There is the possibility that a deal is on Fwiji which is a different licence but I think this is less likely.

Hi Turtlewax,
I do still hold ARC shares. My predictions are based on my knowledge of the company and I would expect everyone to do their own research and decide for themselves what the upside and downside potentials are. The warrants are listed in the Block A and Block B block listings. The cash position was given in a May and December RNS. The Casa liabilities are harder to track down you need to track the accounts back a couple of years, look at the original sale RNS or look at the Rackla presentation. The last couple of years ARC accounts have considered CASA as for sale/sold and haven't quoted the associated liabilities (that I can see). I'm sure you would have corrected anything I misstated :-). My SP prediction does not come with a guarantee.
I also don't expect such a significant decline in SP if a deal is declared - perhaps NVS will surprise me!

Hi SeisNav,
Can the sulphide layer for supergene enrichment be pyrite?

Have you seen the number of warrants that expire in June? I expect a significant drag on the SP until early May. As far as I'm aware the $3.3m CASA liabilities will need to be reported in this year's accounts. ARC probably have over $1m at the moment but the directors will want some more of their option surrender jackpot releasing and there will be lots of bills to pay. The small scale plant to create FCF appears to have been a fairy story. If a deal for the Zambian assets hasn't been announced by early May a sharp drop will then occur. This together with the balance sheet at the next accounts (or a placing) will depress the SP further. In my opinion 1.6p is certainly possible. If a JV with a mid/major is announced then I don't expect the SP to drop below 3p. This is not investment advice but my opinion. DYOR.

Ah, that explains the last 12 months SP action. Thanks Fulmar :-).