Responses4 Jun 2014 22:57
J288 - Presume you emailed me? Replied
Brokerdaw - To be fair, the Namibian, Omani and Zambian assets were purchased relatively recently and at very low prices. Very little work has been done on the licences before purchase and what has been done has been unsuccessful, hence why FRI were able to purchase so cheaply. FRI haven't added much value to them to be honest. The fact that they are trying to farm-out already proves their funding difficulties.
Faaz - Good point! (Just backdated it to prevent it from showing on the home screen). I would say a much closer comparison would be with MATD. These companies don't (as it stands) have much value in the actual assets, but they can derive value through proper 3D seismic, and farm-out thereafter. They can then drill. MATD tried that, and essentially failed catastrophically, so their asset is worth very little, probably less than the market is valuing it at. MATD also has cash issues. That's a similar position to that of FRI, but FRI are earlier stage. They don't have any proper seismic, can't afford proper seismic, so are effectively at the mercy of any farm-in company. I don't honestly expect them to get partners for at least 1 of their licences, and the important one, Oman, will probably be the hardest sell given the funding commitments and timescales involved. That said, if any one asset is developed properly, then £2.5m will look a joke - there is just a material risk that no value will actually be derived. There certainly won't be any long-term value derived before proper 3D in Oman, or new 2D in Namibia/Zambia.
I personally think that their portfolio is too large as it stands. They should shelve Zambia at the very least, in my opinion, and try to direct any cash raised to the Namibian and Omani assets. The issue for small cap companies with such high risk, high reward exploration, is that they become a binary bet, and often end up divesting of these high risk assets and search for low risk production assets. Alternatively, many cease to survive on AIM.
Of course, all of this is fairly irrelevant in the short-term. The market cap is ~£2.5m and many investors will be willing to take the bet that something will be pulled off. The game here is very much in securing value-enhancing farm-outs that will allow future licence commitments to be met. That's not too pressing an issue in Zambia or Namibia, but certainly is on Oman. Time is of the essence there
El1te