Member Info for elir71

Yes, that is what Ive tried to quantify. A conservative assumption I've made is that the whole £15M is raised in one go at current SP. Raising / Borrowing in increments may prove to be better value, however it introduces a bit more uncertainty.

If we are coming to the table with an mcap of £6.6M and we need an additional £15M

Assuming a 50 50 gearing then a loan of £ 10.8 M and an equity raise of £ 4.2 M

72 % : 28%

the model would suggest 33p ish by end of 2027

That's a very good question. As I've said before I think the European Gateway will be the conduit

"The EU's Global Gateway strategy aims to finance infrastructure and sustainability projects, including those for critical raw materials (CRMs), by mobilising up to €300 billion in public and private investments by 2027. This strategy uses tools like the European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) to provide guarantees and blended finance, attracting private funding for strategic raw material supply chains in partner countries. "

https://international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/policies/global-gateway/global-gateway-business-opportunities_en

Correction

0.00% 8.5

10.00% 11.65

20.00% 14.8

30.00% 17.95

40.00% 21.1

50.00% 24.25

60.00% 27.4

70.00% 30.55

80.00% 33.7

90.00% 36.85

100.00% 40

thank you ocelot, noted. yes could be out by 15% or so, but this is more of an "order of magnitude" back of a *** packet type calc.

we are massively undervlaued even without news on any finance package

In summary,

Ive assumed a model as a sale of the resource at a 50% discount to fundamental value, prior to start of construction but post mining permit and permissions to build a processing plant in place

As in my opinion

the funding that I speculate may be shortly announced is likely to be the "gateway" scheme, where commercial loans are guaranteed by the EIB

and that some degree of equity issue may accompany it then interpolating between the targetted SP based on loan finance and equity finance (at todays levels) then

0% loan 100% equity --> 8.5p

20% loan 80% equity --> 22.8p

40% loan 60% equity --> 37.1p

60% loan 40% equity --> 51.4p

80% loan 20% equity --> 65.7p

100% loan 0% equity --> 80.0p

by the end of 2027

I welcome any comments and corrections, most of you know how to contact me directly

Naturally it assumes the current SP and a discount for placing case , and improved sentiment would change that radically

Nevertheless I can't see how a share price of less than 8p can be justified on the basis of the fundamentals

O now working on from the below we are looking at a question of how the £15M is financed for us to get to that £ 241 M, we wont consider beyond, we'll assume the resource is sold to the likes of RIO for £ 241 M

I'll look at the boundary conditions of

1. All grant

2. All loan

3. All placing

assume 275 M shares currently in issue

1. All grant - no more placings, no need to repay, no interest added, basically a gift of £ 15 M

lowest possible impact would be £ 15 /275 per share approx £ 0.055 per share or 5.5p per share additional value, add to 2.0p current to sell, thats 7.5p

highest possible impact would be that in the case of a hypothetical sale in 2027 then the mcap could theoretically be £ 241 M which would mean each share could be worth £241 M / 275 M = 87p

Assuming we got 50% of its fundamental value then approx 43p per share

2. All Loan repayable in full on sale immediately prior to construction.

Repayment would be £ 15 M + £ 5 M in interest etc £ 20 M

Reciepts from sale of resource - repayment of loan = £ 241 M - £ 20 M = £ 221 M

per share thats £221 M / 275 M = 80p per share

approximately, if it was sold for half its rational fundamental value it would be proportionately less say 40p

3. Immediate Mega placing raising £15M at 35% discount

offer price (1.0 - 0.35) * £0.02 = £0.013 = 1.3p

number new shares = £15 M / placing price = £15 M / £0.013 = approx 1154 M new shares

shares in issue after a mega placing 275 M + 1154 M = 1429 M

So value per share at theoretical sale immediately prior to construction start and prior to construction funding ....

sale price of the resource / no of shares in issue

= 241 M / 1429 M = £ 0.17 / share = 17p per share

even if sold off at half its fundamental value then 8.5p per share

@smkr No, the DFS will not be out until late next year

I'll divide the graphite into two separate projects, the mine and the active anode material processing plant

This is my understanding ...

2024

Exploitation Licence application / Public consultation / White List (done)

GROC prepares and submits responses to White list

Greenlandic Government considers the application based on GROC responses (in progress)

GROC works on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) ... using consultants (ongoing)

GROC works on Social Impact Assessment (SIA) ... using consultants (ongoing)

GROC recovers 20 T of graphite from various locations within the mine for use as test material for Pilot Plant (ongoing)

GROC orders and sets up Pilot Active Anode Material Processing Plant (PAAMPP) .... list of equipment has been ready since April, probably awaiting funding

GROC completes Preliminary Feasibility Study ( from SIA EPA and results of previous geological exploration )

Greenlandic Government Grants Exploitation Licence

2026

GROC tests recovered feedstock through running PAAPP

GROC prepares Definitive Feasibility Study for Amitsoq mine

GROC applies for mining permit

GROC prepares Definitive Feasibility Study for Active Anode Material Processing Plant (AAMPP)

Greenlandic Government grants Mining Permit

GROC prepares Final Investment Decision (FID)

** to get to this point then £15 M of investment is needed **

2027 Start Mine Construction

2027 Start Active Anode Material Processing Plant Construction

2027 Commission Active Anode Material Processing Plant

2028 Mine construction ongoing

2029 Mine construction complete

** at this point the NPV of the projects are projected to be **

US$ 179 M Amitsoq mine £ 133 M

US $ 621 M Active Anode Material Processing Plant £ 460 M

Total NPV at start of mine construction £ 593 M

Capex required to construct mine and Active Anode Material Processing Plant

US $ 131 ... £ 100 M

US $ 340 ... £ 252 M

Total Capex from start of mine to self sustainability £ 352 M

Fundamental Value at start of mine construction £ 593 M - £ 352 M = £ 241 M

So the immediate question is, what is the nature of the financing of the £ 15 M investment necessary to get to the immediately pre construction stage, where you could model it that the company could sell that resource for £ 241 M ?

.... now do you see why Stefan says ... "don't worry too much"

Often a precursor to news .

I would imagine that a placing would be in executed in the next four or five weeks or so. Its usually done prior to financial year end. If I was a cynic, it would be to present a favourable liquidity in the accounts.

Yes I've 2029 as my timescale

Theres only one market maker quoting below 5 this morning,

@StockCheque and others

What is the consensus on whether QED is now self sustaining ? Or do you think that some more capital raises are necessary ? if so, about how much

I think investors have largely taken their positions. There is no influx of new investment as yet, and I don't anticipate any until a broader media coverage and wider investor appetite is generated. Nevertheless, the share is very inelastic. I don't think many will slice profits until the sp is at much higher levels 6p+, and far higher for an exit

@AimAnalyst123 I is my opinion that the funding mechanism will primarily be Global Gateway. If I am right, then it will be in the form of a single or a consortium of commercial loans derisked by guarantees from the European Investment Bank. There may , or may not be a need for some degree of equity raise in tandem with that as some German banks like to take an equity stake in the businesses that they lend money to. In my view the most useful thing we could be doing as individuals would be to model the impact on fundamental values of the proportions of various finance. I do not believe there is much scope for out and out grants, except perhaps from a UK battery fund, from which GROC have received GBP 250 K in the past.

Not forgetting that there's the possibility of US interests wanting to own these assets. Let's face it, the mcap with an x5 premium of many Greenland resources is at present cheaper than troops and rockets

@Stringer, yes I agree that most junior miners rerate when the development costs and nature of its finance is defined (or the resource sold on of course).

However, in this instance, and I accept that we are in unknown territory, but when the details of pre development financing becomes available, then it should be clear indication of a change in fundamental value.

@stringer, I doubt you'd need to wait until 2029 start of revenue stream for the market to acknowledge the future value of that stream. The way I look at it is that immediately prior to financing the mines construction, then the project has a net present value. Same true for processing plant. It is the journey to that point that has financing unknowns. In my head, im modelling the period to that time as if the projects are sold at that point in late 2027 and that £20M is needed between now and then to make it happen. The NPV for the projects immediately prior to construction has been published including a significant contingency. So as a venture it's clearly good. What's more uncertain is how that 20m is raised as it has consequences for the present fundamental valuation of the shares. I recommend you come to your own conclusions to the following boundary conditions. , nine are necessarily credible outcomes, but helps define the edge of the playing field

1. 20m wholly financed by grant easy to calculate, divide npv 2027 by nshares

2. 20m wholly financed by dilutive placing with a typical discount or warrants

3. 20m wholly funded by debt

It's all a useful analytical exercise so you can faith in the fundamentals.

Then repeat the above to your opinions if the most extreme credible ratios of the above. The playing field now gets much smaller. ... Do you like what you see ? Yes the decimal point is in the right place.

Today's trading shows some inelasticity. I thimk a buy of 3400 or so may shift the price to 2.5p

tomorrow's opening should be interesting

@Iloveshushi .... how are you able to predict gold grades of ore bodies which have not been extracted and tested. If you are gifted with this ability then you really are wasting your time here.

"There has never been veins of gold at Clogau it has always been sporadic patches... in the past some quite lucrative patches but maybe the gold just isn't there for a commercial operation now."

Veins are of quartz. Some of the quartz contains gold. It is particularly the case when it is in contact with the carbonaceous shale. Higher gold grades are where these quartz veins are in proximity to the intrusive igneous rock (greenstones). The controls have been studied and are well understood. Simon Dominy has pubished a paper on the subject which was peer reviewed. If you seek a thorough understanding of the nature of the deposits at Clogau St David's (and similar controls are likely in other similar geological environments) then I recommed you have a read of his paper.