Member Info for ElectricLion

Very nice write-up, with a few interesting details, and the publicity is welcome of course. That said, at it's core, it's just some more speculation, which we have plenty of already! The questions of who (not very important), when (pretty important) and how much (most important) are still to be answered. Let's hope for some clarity soon. GLA

A question to those experienced individuals who say this delay and/or due diligence arrangement is not normal - are your experiences primarily in Africa, better yet, Ethiopia? Because if not, I think it would be a stretch to conclude that "normal" in the UK, or in another financial 1st world country is necessarily the same as "normal" for the current situation in Ethiopia.

"AIM Rule 11 requires notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would cause a significant movement in its share price."

https://www.iasplus.com/en-gb/resources/other-regulatory/market-rules/aim

There is wiggle room in the form of an exemption for ongoing negotiations, where disclosing the news could prejudice the negotiations, which could conceivably apply, but the high-level rule is pretty clear.

Indeed. Of course it is. Get real. It would have an effect on the SP, yes? Therefore "price-sensitive" by definition.

Olmsey - per stock market rules, price sensitive information must be released ASAP. Not saying you're wrong, but absence of evidence is not evidence of abscence, it just means it's taking a bloody long time, which we're all well used to anyway!

More likely in my view is that the increase in gold price now means that potential buyer's offers are increasing to the point where JM may seriously consider them. He's probably had a price in mind from the beginning, but no-one was willing to pay it. Hopefully, that is changing...

Calibre probably wanted more than 50% of the profits, which is probably why the previous attempt at arranging a toll deal never came to fruition. Their prerogative of course. I assume they felt, rightly, that we needed them more than they needed us. But even so, it's a shame that a mutually profitable arrangement couldn't have been found. Regardless, it's water under the bridge at this point. I can't see it being revived now.

"This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view"

You know it makes sense.

Publican: "matter of fact and emotionally detached" is perhaps the best way to be when investing. Unlike yourself one might suggest. Nobody posts as much about a stranger's financial situation as you do and is entirely OK either. Besides, for better or worse, he can't see your posts anyway, and everyone else is sick to death of you droning on about it. Are you even able to stop talking about it? I have my doubts. Look in the mirror.

Amen to that Qnard. Most people see what they want to see, or expect to see. But as you say, the reality may not be so. My view is that the SP is the ultimate indication of market supply vs. demand, and that is beginning to firm up nicely just below 0.6p. News will send it one way or another. I expect up, but we will have to wait and see.

High-risk, high-reward. That's why we're here isn't it! My view is that the actual risk is lower than the market currently thinks, and so the risk/reward ratio is quite attractive. That is by no means a guarantee of course, and I wouldn't put your house on it, but with a little (more) patience, the reward will hopefully begin to emerge. GLA

HZM is a cautionary tale of problems during construction. Down 98% over the year.

FC - genuinely no offence intended, but it's kinda tough to believe you were a finance big-wig, given your behaviour over the last week or two. Credible people generally don't act in the manner you have.

It's a comedy on here at the moment. I suspect a number of 'adults' (I count myself among them, though you can judge for yourselves) are simply lurking, uninterested in joining in with the ramping/deramping/manic-depressive nonsense. Thank goodness there are still a few (Rob, Nick) willing to counter some of the noise. If you can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.

Tml1 - they voted yesterday. 83.52% approved the deal. Needed 75%.

Seingred - "yes was a cheap deal for what they had" and also "how Cnr is fetching the same or more?". Think you answered your own question...

What I found interesting was that the offer was stated as pence per share, not a total outlay for the entire company. See 19/3/2024 RNS: "14.85 pence in cash...approximately £156.1 million"

This makes sense to me - after all the SP is what share.holders are interested in, but I think it implies that all costs, as well as any and all dilutive factors etc are already built into this final per share offer. Can anyone else clarify this?

I'm no expert, but essentially, the MMs hold stock in order to facilitate trading. When you buy, the MMs sell stock to you, when you sell, the MMs buy them from you. Thus the amount of stock the MMs have varies depending on demand.

The MMs generally aren't interested in speculating on the price themselves, they just want to minimise risk. They don't want to hold too much stock, as then they are overly exposed to adverse price movements. They don't want to hold too little stock as then they may be unable to meet invester demand, causing them to scramble about to find more stock themselves.

This balancing act is manifested in the price the MMs offer to both buyers and sellers. So buys vs. sells does make a difference, but it'll only be a big difference if the MMs pool of stock is getting too big or too small.

Needless to say, it's a lot more complicated than that, and in theory at least, there's all sorts of 'tricks' the MMs can play to manage their own situation, but that said, 99% of MM conspiracy theories are complete bunk (as are 99% of all CTs of course).

And finally, for anyone who doesn't yet know, the LSE doesn't publish whether a particular trade was actually a buy or a sell (at least not to punters like us, maybe pros can get it). So sites like this one simply guess based on the trade price vs. what information they can glean on the mid-point of the spread. Very far from a perfect science. In particular, looking at yesterday's trades, there's no way the SP would have remained relatively stable all day, if all of those trades marked as sells were actually sells.

Ah, but this isn't an OTC market. So the MM's are actually the other side of the trade, which does change things rather...

SB has said enough, not just on this board, but on others as well (a poster's whole history is available if you choose to look), to convince me that not all of his posts should be taken at face value.

DYOR, make your own decisions and don't assume anyone, least of all an anonymous poster on the internet, has your best interests at heart.

No SB, I'm not. Give it a rest.

I agree with your logic, which is surely JM's position as well, but buyers will also want value from the deal. 240m is likely a stretch but fingers crossed! :-)