Member Info for ElectricLion

Movimento (the Facebook group that Seingred posted) are the group that have been against Condor for some time.

I believe it was a few of their members who vandelised some of Condors equipment last year. It's possible that the police presence is *because* of these guys, as they have clearly been disruptive in the past.

I still can't tell exactly what they're so upset about, particularly now the the resettlement isn't happening.

Bezzell, any thoughts?

Crikey, didn't expect that to happen so quickly, and with so little notice too. Fingers crossed.

FWIW, IIRC Golden Reign had their permits about 2 or 3 weeks after PC...

I'm no deramper, and I'm still invested here, but in the interests of balance I think it's worth pointing out that Dalradian's mine is in Northern Ireland. The geopolitical risk is not comparable.

Seingred hasn't posted for a few days, does this mean things are settling down a bit?

In all seriousness, watching the news 24/7 no matter where you are is going to be depressing. Take a break. Set stop losses/buy orders if you like. Come back in a few months. Obsessing over day-to-day news is as mentally unhealthy as obsessing over the day-to-day share price.

This is old news, although the precise details of exactly what went on depend on who you talk to. I'm sure the company has mentioned it in some old RNSs or possibly AGM minutes or something like that. Reading between the lines, it seems that some guys did some damage to one of the drill rigs. Not clear how much. Conder took them to court, then dropped charges some time later IIRC. No-one seems to dispute that these men were in the wrong, however Condor may have overreacted. Still I'm a bit suprised people on either side are still worked up over this, it's ancient history now isn't it?

Good artical. Thanks. I suspected that there was more to this than meets the eye. Let's hope all sides see sense soon.

Would Ortega himself (or his close associates) have to approve the permits though? Or would/could the permits be approved by more local government ministers? I had thought/hoped that maybe the permitting process could carry on, almost completely independantly of the larger political unrest.

Hi Halle. Honestly very interested in your opinion, but your post is full of anger, and short on specifics. The investors on this board are as varied as any other arbitrary group of people. Most here of course want the company to do well, which by implication, even though we may be thousands of miles away, means we would prefer there to be good relations between the company and the local population, and also that the current political unrest to be resolved quickly and peacefully. Surely, in that, we are aligned? Beyond that, what exactly is the problem?

The army have stated they're not interested in oppression. The populace are (relatively) free to demonstate and express their views. Ortega, while not defusing the situation, does not appear to be escalating it either. Indications are that while political positions are relatively entrenched, there does not appear to be any appetite for war, or anything close to it. The unrest has not (yet) hurt Condor's share price too badly (the share price rose briefly in anticipation of the permits then has come back down to more-or-less where it was, but not dramatically worse). There is no concrete signs that the unrest will affect Condors permiting process. There is no specific reason to suppose regime change will hurt Condor, so long as it is done in an orderly fashion. There is a lot of FUD going on, which of course I understand and share myself, but little to indicate our investment here is scuppered, so far.

http://todaynicaragua.com/ has several articles, in English, that seem to give a pretty balanced summary of the debate and the recent protests.

Serious question to you both: what exactly do you think they should say? They can't know anything about the wider political situation. They don't know when the permits are coming. They'll be hung out to dry, both legally and by investors, if they say anything concrete in any way that turns out to be untrue. Given all that, I'm really not sure what they could say?

http://i.imgur.com/3vKJqc7.gif

Trade still hasn't gone through. This note now appears on the Interactive Investor Bed & ISA page: Your instructions will be carried out as soon as practicable, however due to the large number of requests at the beginning of the new tax year, this may take up to 10 working days from receipt of your instruction. Pretty sure it wasn't there this morning. I see plenty of Bed & ISA trades gone through today, so less than impressed with Interactive Investor TBH.

If you want to be taken seriously, do some research. 12 months to BFS and 18 months give or take to build the mine has been common knowledge for ages. I also see no reason why the BFS, proving up more ounces and arranging can't happen in parallel. It's not a given that the share price will rise on permits, but if it doesn't it'll be due to market irrationality rather than any of the reasons you've put forth so far.

I Bed & ISA'd some shares just after 8 this morning with Interactive Investor. The trade doesn't appear to have taken place yet, and there is no indication anywhere in the account that it is pending. I realise today is probably the busiest day of the year for such trades, but I'm wondering if it's even working? Anyone in a similar situation?

One more thing: placing prices are often based on the volume weighted average price over some period. Which means even if the shareprice rockets to �2 on arrival of the permits, the company wouldn't be able to negotiate a placing at, or slightly below, that price instantly. They would have the wait until essentially that new price became the new normal, which might be cutting it fine if the bank account is already running low.

(3 of 3) However I don't really subscribe to the logic that the timing of the fund raising means the permits won't come soon. The reality is the company doesn't know when they're going to arrive either, and so must proceed on the assumption they won't be. That only implies caution, not pessimism. There's also an assumption on here that the share price will appreciate quickly and significantly once the permits arrive. I would like to think that will happen, but I'm a bit old and jaded these days and I'm not certain we'll see a reaction straight away. I believe it also takes time to organise a placing, and the company must raise funds before the bank account actually runs down to zero.

(2 of 3) Even though I don't necessarily agree with this logic, I'm still a little disappointed. You imply that a 9% dilution isn't massive, but 1.) 9% isn't exactly nothing 2.) it'll be a sight more than 9% if the warrants get taken up. Don't forget, the raising cost 43p per 'unit', not share, which I'm not a massive fan of 3.) regular, smaller fund raising still adds up. it's only the latest in a long line of fund raising, and more will no doubt be needed in the future, even if the capital cost of building the mine is debt funded. 4.) it's hasn't really raised that much money - less than a year of 'working capital' at current spend rate, which is already on the low side due to not being able to do much, or at least commit funds, until the permits come 5.) dilution is about the only major long-term concern for me. I'm a believer in the project, the larger investors, and ultimately the management, although the ball has been dropped on occasion. The project will work out - I'm as confident about that as I can be, but too much dilution could reduce my share of that to a tiny sliver, particularly as I don't have any additional funds with which to stop up at this time.

(1 of 3) I think the logic is that if the company thinks the permits are coming within weeks, and that they will cause the share price to increase significantly, then they could done a placing at higher levels and diluted less for the same amount of funds raised. Given that they haven't done that, either the company thinks the permits aren't coming any time soon, or that they don't think the share price will react, at least not instantly.

Here since autumn 2010. Now hold 100K in my ISA and 68K in my SIPP. Couldn't tell you my average exactly after all thse years, but probably around 70p. Not selling anything until �2 when I'll start derisking my SIPP and trading in my ISA. Target is �4 in either a buyout or production scenario, but more is possible if gold does well. Willing to wait as long as it takes.