Member Info for ElectricLion

I reckon MC will be running multiple options in parallel here. He'll already know the broad strokes of how the banking finance deal will be constructed, and has probably had discussions with lenders already. I think most banking deals involve a chunk of equity, to go along with the debt. At current levels, that could be quite painful, and so I think that the toll mining arrangement is probably intended to replace (or at least reduce) the equity we need to issue.I'm not sure what studies a BFS contains that we haven't already got, apart from perhaps a full, detailed design of the mine. If there's not much more to add, then compiling it could happen quite quickly. If all the above comes together smoothly, then I think we could be building well within the 18 month window.

I think we've all become rather fixated on the toll mining deal. Both in the sense that's it's wonderful if it happens and also that it's terrible if it doesn't. But it's really quite a recent development, and the company is hardly worthless without it. I'm also pretty sure it's not the only option being worked on in the background. It if falls through, maybe a couple p drop due to PIs with ants in their pants, but I don't see a substantial, sustained drop from these levels unless another II wants out at any price. And if they did, it probably won't have anything to do with Condor specifically. All IMHO.

We still need to scrape together ~$110M for mine construction plus whatever is needed for BFS and working capital, and I don't think income from toll mining will cover it (assuming the deal gets struck, which we can't take for granted). I'd be interested in knowing how big the gap is likely to be and how that extra capital will be raised. I'm pretty bullish here, but I'm just not sure that the market will respect fag-packet P/E calculations, yet! Will be happy to be proved wrong though.

The new will come when it's ready. Did you miss the last raise? Admittedly, 1.75M won't last forever, but what's your justification for saying the cash burn is high? Do you know what it is? Do you think the deal won't be struck? Why not? Do you know what other options MC has? No? Thought not.

I would imagine that our P/E ratio would be discounted somewhat compared to B2G, due to a lack of diversification and hence increased risk. If B2 has an issue at one of their mines, they have others to take up the slack. If CNR has an issue, it only has the one. Specifically, if Nicaragua goes down the pan, B2 will be fine, we may struggle.

Even so, and as you say, we are currently valued so low that even a modest P/E ratio sees several multiples from here, once we are in full production.

Also worth mentioning the blue-sky potential here is almost unlimited. The market hasn't paid much attention to the new concession to the South, but MC hasn't picked that up by accident. It's unexplored of course and will take time and money to see what's there, but that could be big.

40k oz a year for 2 years is not going to make much of a dent in a ~5m oz resource.

Honestly can't understand why you're still here SS. Do you actually enjoy being miserable? Anyway, to your point, if B2G wanted to screw us, they wouldn't do a deal, full stop. If the terms of the deal are unreasonable, MC won't make a deal. It's not our only option, clearly it's the option MC prefers, but debt, forward selling and equity are still all on the table if necessary.

So you're estimating $130M to $140M in total, with Condor's share roughly half, correct? That would go a long way toward the ~$110M cost of construction...

You are clearly a numpty. And a transparent one at that. Go away.

The priority has been getting permitted, not adding oz. Don't worry about the headline quantity. If MC says there's 5M oz, then I reckon that means there's 5M oz absolute minimum. We'll go find it once we can afford to.

Debt is better than dilution in my book, though in practice we're likely to see a combination of cash from toll mining, debt and equity all used to finance BFS and construction. MC's background is in corporate finance, so I'm not too worried about this area. He'll get the best deal that can be got.

There may be a seller, though not likely to be selling for company-specific reasons. Or the MMs could be holding a decent amount of float. Once it's soaked up, the price may rise. Who knows.

Finally, I believe that if there is a serious bull market in gold/gold equities coming up (and that's still a big if), that it will go on for several years. We've got time. Add on the effects of a bull market to those production numbers and this could be a 10 bagger in 2 or 3 years. I'll wait.

The grades are high. The resource upgrade might have been more substantial, but not the end of the world. There's plenty of gold down there, just needs finding. The trucking option wasn't even on the table until a couple months ago. It's hardly the only option, though that depends on your timescales. I suspect yours is rather shorter than most here. Personally, I'm waiting for (full) production. Run the numbers - 120k oz annual production @ $1300/oz and $700/oz costs and a reasonable P/E ratio...

You were "long and strong" on Saturday, bragging of the big buy you were going to make Monday morning. Now it's "one for the bottom drawer"? On the basis of this RNS? Strange attitude.

We are all well aware of the situation in Nicaragua. It is one of the reasons behind the low valuation of the company. I would say that it is more than factored in to the current share price and that the situation has now stabilised. Big picture is that a lot of mines operate in parts of the wold with a less than stellar reputation, and still make big profits. Only way in which it is likely to seriously affect Condor is if the whole country descends into civil war, which I really don't see happening.

http://time.com/5347133/sunk-cost-fallacy-decisions/

Why are you still invested?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzijkgyMxCo

If you don't like what MC is doing, then sell. He's building a company from scratch. He does not control the share price. Don't count on a takeover. MC won't sell for peanuts. I wouldn't think the other major investors will either. This is not a share for the impatient. The potential is huge here. I'm happy to wait. Are you?

Well worth reading:
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/de2b777f071a0a47f54ed315e/files/17709be7-83f3-4d14-bf99-5695c043b6a8/TheTariffMan.pdf

Good article, and nice little plug for Condor too. Thanks.

If the value was under 20K then highly likely it would be a transfer into an ISA. Even so, could well be a matching sell and buy to transfer shares between accounts or something.

Alternatively, there could still be a lot of float around from the II selling up.