Member Info for ElectricLion

Excellent points. Wish I had more than one "thumbs up" to give!

The only provable negative impact on CNR due to the unrest so far is that I think some geologists were delayed by a week or two while providing the follow-up queries after the revised permit application. Anything else is speculation. So long as the country does not spiral into civil war, which I see little signs of happening, then people will go to work and the project will progress towards BFS.

https://www.kitco.com/stocks/hui.html

Note how many are closer to their 52-week low than their 52-week high.

Contrarian Investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time.[1]

A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricings in securities markets. For example, widespread pessimism about a stock can drive a price so low that it overstates the company's risks, and understates its prospects for returning to profitability.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrarian_investing

A leaf out of Trump's book? OK, that's your opinion I guess. Personally, I'd prefer he didn't stoop to the level of shooting his mouth off on twitter about things he knows nothing about.

MC says as much officially as he can. If he says anything officially that can't be backed up he'll be hung out to dry by investors and regulators.

Unofficially, he can give hints, and I think he has done so.

I find Aguila's idea of a small JV with B2Gold regarding processing some of our ore to be quite compelling. Who knows if the market will care, but for the company, being cash generative, even if just in a small way, would be quite a milestone.

HUM's MCap is 95.76m according to Google finance and CNR's is 22.72m. So HUM is worth just over 4 times CNR currently, with CNR 3 years or so away from production. Even with gold remaining unloved, that gap should start to close as CNR get closer to production.

My amateur effort at calculating Life of Mine is 5m oz * 0.67 recovery / 120k oz annually. Comes out at 28 years. Someone more knowledgable than me may well be able to do better, but the point is LOM is not a worry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

Nothing. More fluff, no substance. Still banging on about relocation and the guys Condor took to court. Also 4 wells dried up "as a result of" drilling (no evidence supplied). I'll eat my hat if it turns into anything serious.

Looking at your list, I don't see that your proposed strategy differs hugely from MCs. The company clearly is for sale at the right price. Enough has been said over the years for any interested parties to know that. Banging on about too much would give the impresion of desperation IMO.

What the right price is is somewhat open to debate. I too would think anything under £2 a share would be underselling the resource, but we have to be realistic in the current political and gold price environment. Bear in mind it may also be difficult for the company buying us to justify offering a price ~4-5 times Condor's current MCap to their shareholders. Ideally we would be sitting well over a pound before any offer was made, though that seems difficult currently.

Then 2 and 3 is exactly what we plan to do as far as I can tell. 4 will follow naturally in time if no suitable offer is made. The only real sticking point I see is raising finance if the IFC or other parties are less willing to invest in Nicaragua these days. Still, I'm sure that can be overcome. That's MC's chief talent set as I see it.

https://www.kitco.com/pop_windows/stocks/hui.html

I hadn't seen that, but I would guess that's for bringing production from additional feeder pits and/or underground mining online, to take the base case 80k oz a year to 120+ k oz. I'd be very suprised if it delayed the start of the base case production. If I were MC, I'd want to get cash-generative ASAP, as that means no more faffing about fund-raising, with all the paperwork and dilution that implies.

What 6/8 year option are you referring to Seingred? The permits RNS says construction should start within 18 months (up from 12 months previously IIRC, but cest la vie) and take 18 to 24 months.

I haven't looked at HUM seriously, but don't they have a short estimated LOM (Life of Mine) presently? That may explain some of the underperformance, along with the lackluster gold price and the general malaise in the entire sector at present.

Jeez Seingred. Everything including the kitchen sink in there! Have you sold yet? I seem to recall you saying you would sell most of your holding when permits arrived, whatever the price was. If not, what are your reasons for staying invested?

It's 8.07. Give it a chance.

No stamp duty on AIM-only shares, but CNR is now also listed on the TSX, so stamp duty is applicable.

Would such a sale be on a fully-diluted basis? If outstanding options and warrents are added into the ordinary shares, then we're up to 85.6m shares already.

As a small shareholder. the price per share is a considerably more relateable figure to me than the total consideration paid.

Not quite. All that fair value talk was, I think, based on the $196M NPV from the PFS, and after Whittle optimisation. That's £150M at today's exchange rate, or £2.23 per share. But that does not take account of the district potential.

I used to have a £4 a share as my optimistic-but-achievable takeover target. But obviously that was before the recent unrest, and anticipating a modestly higher gold price. These days, I think my optimistic-but-achiveable target is £3. I can't see MC settling for less than £2.

I have a simple spreadsheet which I can use to generate possible valuations when in production. It's fairly easy to generate a £10 per share valuation, once in full production and debt paid off. (200K ozs PA production, current gold price, current exchange rate, assuming not much more dilution (ie. finance 100% debt or some other arrangement that doesn't dilute excessively)).

Obviously there's a lot of time, effort and risk to get there, but MC isn't just going to give all that potential away for naff all. If no suitable offer is forthcoming, we'll just carry on. Next major hurdle is finance, but that's MC's bread and butter, so no worries on that score.

While £1 is a pretty decent return from here, I would also be disappointed if that's all there was. As WG says, the mine is worth billions to someone. If I was MC or Ross Beaty and someone offered me £1 per share, I'd be saying thanks, but we'll build the mine ourselves. I can't MC reccommending a takeover price at less than £2 a share.

Your Facebook link shows protestors breaking in to, and disrupting the PC. You then ask why the need for the armed police? I think you've answered your own question.

I think you should sell. I mean that with no animosity, but no investment is worth this amount of angst. You'll sleep better with an investment in Canada, or Northern Ireland, than with one in Nicaragua.

My gut reaction, and that's all it is, is that I don't trust this Movimiento group as far as I can throw them. There's a lot of disingenuous rhetoric and nothing in the way of facts or even rational debate.

I hope I'm not proved horribly wrong, but I also don't think they are a serious threat. They will be a thorn in Condor's side (and quite possibly the company that buys us out) for the duration, but I very much doubt they have the organisation, numbers or political allies to block the mine.