Member Info for ElectricLion

Understand your concerns, and who knows, you may be right in the end. But you'd never invest in anything unless you thought there was a chance it would turn out well. I think there's a chance, and that's good enough for me. If you don't want to wait, or see better opportunities elsewhere, go for it. But who can really say whether those chances will do better or worse than this one.

IIRC, Numis has had a 90p target for ages - it'll be based on some risk-discounted NPV. Which is pretty much always pretty useless for estimating future share price (and obviously no timescales involved, as already observed).

That said, to say the SP will never get there is another matter entirely, though we may have to wait until full production. I no longer care what the SP is in 6 months time. I care about the end game. The end game is 150koz+ production a year at AISC of $700/oz. At current gold price that's around £90m annual profit. Will we get there? I think so, but there are few guarantees in life. When will we get there? No idea. But if it does happen, the market will not be valuing a company making £90m profit a year at £20m! Accumulate on the dips and stick 'em in the bottom drawer. One day Rodney...

Someone's popped up on the ADVFN board - saying that, while the surrounding villages want the mine, La India village does not and that landowner's are not selling. This guy seems to come across a bit strong if you ask me. Makes me wonder if he's part of the local resistance! Anyway, read for yourself and make up your own mind.

No-one here can tell you that for sure, but the odds are against it at this point IMHO. Though I think too much emphasis has been put on a toll deal on this board (and arguably in Condor's recent presentations). It would be nice for sure, but we're not bust without it. If Calibre want to do a deal, great, but we can't wait around forever. Time is money. MC's got some pretty big decisions to make pretty soon now, and once made, we'll all have a better idea of where this is going. Small-scale production gets my vote, if we find we can't raise the capital for the full-scale plant without crippling dilution.

Those grades are pretty ridiculous. Wonder if Calibre had access to these results before the deal.

I don't have one, so can't speak from experience, but I think you'd want a spread-bet account. IG offer spread-bet accounts: https://www.ig.com/uk

Good lord. That's what you mean by debt? Well, that says it all I guess...

Calibre got lucky with the gold price IMO. The deal looks a lot better at $1500/oz than it did at $1200/oz. May mean there's less incentive for them to do a deal with us unfortunately.
SP movements on resuming trading seem to be fairly restrained, considering the seismic nature of the deal. Indicates I think that the market judges the negatives of dilution to be slightly less than the positives of the new reserves and cashflow.
If Condor can get a toll deal, then great, but this has seemed less likely to me ever since news of the Calibre deal broke.
Small-scale production seems to me to be the way to monetise La India in the (relatively) near term. At least we would be in control of our own destiny then, rather than waiting forever for crumbs off the big boys table.

https://www.bouncefinancial.com.au/investing-shouldnt-be-exciting-if-it-is-youre-doing-it-wrong/

Don't think so TBH. Volume is so low, volatility is is a bit manic-depressive.

This is an investment, not a rollercoaster. Go play roulette if you want excitement.

https://thedailygold.com/3-tips-for-picking-junior-gold-stocks/

50% rise followed by a bit of consolidation is going backwards now is it? Put your money where your mouth is and sell up. You'll honestly be happier.

Given your bearishness on the management, may I ask what the investment case is in your view? I know you said you recently sold half, which implies you still hold half, correct? Is it fair to say you rate the asset, but not the management?

http://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/presentations/Condor%20Gold%20September%202019_0.pdf
Page 4

Production, not construction. No further details presented though, as far as I know.

It's possible - 18-24 months was pencilled in for construction, and we may be closer than we realise to being ready to start.

Inclined to take with a pinch of salt though, at least until some of the details are filled in. Financing being the chief one of course.

And, then, for those who wait, 150,000oz production with minimal dilution? That's big numbers.

Meanwhile, some good consolidation going on in the mid-twenties and gold looking perky.

Let's be honest, a toll deal became significantly less likely once the deal between B2 and Calibre was announced. I think B2 would have been up for it, if they hadn't sold the mines. With Calibre, who knows.

Inclined to agree with RR's general point - that we shouldn't get too worked up over ifs, buts and maybes. No real need to drag MC over the coals either though - we all know that while he'd like a toll deal, that there's no guarantee of getting one, and he has never promised he can get one either. We're (mostly) grown ups here - we know the risks.

We know that the project is moving forward - the recent fund raise wasn't just to pay salaries - the bulk was for land purchase and also for infrastructure designs.

Some time ago, there was mention of raising finance through forward-selling gold production. Aguila and RR - you both seem knowledgeable about the industry - is this not a thing any more? Must it be a combination of debt and equity to raise funds, or are there other options?

At some point next year, everything should be tied up and ready for construction. What then? Well that's the $120M question. The one thing we can't afford to do is stand still. Aguila's plan seems to make a lot of sense, though if I'm perfectly honest, I'm a little disheartened by the idea of waiting a further 3-4 years for full (120,000oz+) production, but that may be the cost of not getting diluted to hell and back.

I'd imagine a 30-40k oz plant would be quicker to build, as well as being cheaper. Cherry-picking ore would hopefully mean our current $690 AISC would be significantly reduced. Condor would (should anyway) start to be valued on a P/E ratio basis, which on my fag-packet numbers, get us to at least a quid, even with dilution. The debt could be paid off pretty easily and then we'd be building up funds pretty quickly to go towards further drilling and/or for the big plant to come. Plus, (probably) no more dilution ever! Wouldn't that be nice! Add Nicaragua Milling Company into the mix, and it still looks pretty tasty to me, even if a toll deal doesn't materialise.

Respect your views RR - you seem to know what you're talking about, however a few responses...
- I don't know why B2 sold their mines, could have been any number of reasons, but seems strange that B2 were happy to offload them if there was significant value just about to be unlocked.
- Prior Calibre shareholders have been massively diluted to raise the funds for the purchase.
- MC did mention 24 months to production in the last presentation. I'd love for him to expand on that a little, since we don't yet have a concrete date for construction start.
- Toll mining deal is still just speculation, agreed, but we don't need or want a "premium" from Calibre, just a fair deal.
- Not sure what you mean by "the way MC operates". Perhaps you mean a touch too much speculation? Anything else?
- What new info are you unhappy with? Toll mining? Small-scale production? None of that seems too dreadful to me?
- Our MCap. is low, for various reasons. That on it's own makes fundraising tough. As mentioned Calibre had massive dilution to get to where they are now. Bluestone Resources's MCap is nearly 3 times ours (if I've done my sums right). It's not all about the management.
- Ross Beaty has plenty to keep him busy. His prescence here is a plus for sure, but I'm not suprised if he's got bigger fish to fry. I don't think you can read too much into that.

With excess capacity at the mill, La Libertad could provide a toll processing option as part of a staged development for La India to generate cash flow to and accumulate the capital the company requires to build a full mining and processing operation without exposing shareholders to significant dilution.

"A problem for us is the US$12 valuation per ounce in the ground. How are we going to generate cash flow with less dilution for our shareholders?" he said.

Child thinks the company could use contract mining and truck 4 grams per tonne material to La Libertad and produce 35,000-40,000oz with very little capital expenditure. La India hosts resources of 2.32 million ounces grading 4g/t.

"We can truck material to La Libertad for less than 1g/t. La Libertad currently processes material grading about 1.2g/t so this could be a win-win and transition Condor to being a producer," said Child.

Another option could be to start with a 1,000 tonnes per day plant to produce 40,000-45,000oz/y and later expand to about 150,000oz/y.

Having been granted a permit in 2018 to build and operate a mine at La India, Condor's work plan is focused on further de-risking the project by buying surface rights and fully engineering key components of the build such as the tailings storage facility and water management system.

The company is also permitting two feeder pits to raise La India's potential production profile above the 2,800tpd, 80,000oz/y pre-feasibility study base case to a six-digit production figure.

"With this, we will have one million ounces of resources permitted, which means we could produce 120,000oz/y for seven years," he said.

Shares in Condor Gold re trading at C45c, valuing the company at $43 million.

27/17.5