The analysts on HE1's website state: "We assume a 6bcf prospect (in line with the average of the other planned prospects), which we see as worth 39p/sh unrisked." The other prospects will de-risk as well upon validation of the above-ground assessments on this first drill, too.
We will need to understand the size of any discovery to properly appraise how much the company is worth, and market sentiment will also drive the sp too. However, given the excitement around it at present, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50-60p for this first drill IMHO, if it is successful, with uplift from there as the remaining drills progress.
The phrase "completing the process of exploration and discovery" neither confirms nor denies that the completion of the process will be successful or not, just that they are following that process.
However, it feels like an odd thing to tweet if you don't think you will be successful, so on balance I think it's a (not so) subtle message to shareholders.
I personally expect news in the next fortnight - any sooner would be a bonus.
Looking at the (genuinely excellent - many thanks all) 'Discussion on Drill Progression' thread, next Monday may be a little optimistic.
Based on the estimated range of 750-900m depth completed on that thread (as of this morning), and an assumed 30m/day drill, we could be looking at between 10-15 days of drilling until we reach 1200m - the first, maybe second week in August looks more likely on that basis. However, if they've found anything at around 700m, hopefully they will let us know next week.
Regardless, I'm confident in DM and the drill team to do the job properly, and trust them to provide an update (either good or bad) at the earliest opportunity.
Probably the best way I can think of explaining it (I don't want to teach granny to suck eggs, it is not my intention to do so) is:
Get a syringe which is half full of air. Stick your finger over it and push the plunger. Assuming the temperature stays the same, the total quantity of air hasn't changed, but the reduced volume has meant an increase in pressure, hence why it feels like the syringe wants to blow your finger off the end. Conversely, if you pull the plunger, again the total quantity of air hasn't changed but the pressure has dropped, hence feeling like there is a vacuum wanting to pull the end of your finger into the syringe. This is Boyle's law.
There are various other gas laws (e.g. Avogadro) which, when combined, result in the Ideal Gas Law (PV = nRT), but that's for another post!
I'm a mechanical engineer by trade. Boyle's Law states that pressure (P) and volume (V) have an inverse relationship, i.e. for a given quantity of gas, if the volume goes down the pressure increases, and vice-versa.
P1V1 = P2V2 = P3V3 etc.
The team will have a good idea about the expected available volume from the pre-drill seismic data etc.
You will need a geologist to confirm whether or not they expect the pressure to be greater lower down (I would expect so based on the weight of rock above it), and whether or not this can be estimated from the seismic data etc.
Hope this helps.
I saw this on twitter, which made me chuckle:
https://twitter.com/edthomas1984/status/1409792840746651648?s=20
Indeed Mr. B!
As of tomorrow evening, we will have completed 2 weeks of this first drill, and heading towards the business end of it. I wonder if, as they were super-cautious in the first week of drilling, whether they are on schedule to complete the drill in the next fortnight. However, DM's very public announcement that he was travelling to Tanzania bodes well IMHO.
Is it Monday yet?
Yup. My watchlist is a sea of red today.
It is good to know that commercially-viable concentrations of helium are present via the helium show in the mud on what is the first drill of the campaign. Looking forward to seeing if these are backed up with a helium discovery(ies) as the drill progresses - these will be the catalysts for SP movement.
It's not even a full week since the start of the first, month-long drill of a campaign to find out if, to paraphrase DM, we have the largest naturally occurring helium reserve on the planet. The fact that there hasn't been any news yet doesn't mean that there's bad news - it means that there isn't any reportable news. News will come when it's available, and it is still early days in the drilling campaign.
You know when you're just setting off on a long journey and, as soon as you get off the driveway, one of the kids immediately says "are we nearly there yet?". That.
*gets off soapbox*