If I'm honest, having been invested for a couple of years right now PAT feels somewhere between a 'bottom drawer' stock and a turkey, so I don't disagree with Stockopedia's sentiment, if not choice of wording.
However, some good JV news in India and a favourable court outcome would quickly revise this...
I agree.
In my (albeit relatively limited) experience of AGMs based on my investments elsewhere, they can be largely procedural, and any investment-sensitive information to be discussed during the AGM would have to be released by RNS beforehand. AGM hype without an accompanying RNS is largely just that.
There's still time before the end of the quarter, with analysis and drill contractor details outstanding.
@mickey, please can you share the court website address and the parameters used to search for the court status? Thanks.
@JL I agree, market sentiment just isn't with PAT at the moment.
I'm pretty well researched and, for all of my other holdings, I know the approximate timescales for value-altering (hopefully value-adding, but you never know!) news off the top of my head, and expectations for the topics each RNS may hold. I don't have clarity at present about how Panthera is going to generate value for itself and us as shareholders, and therefore can't generate an investment strategy based on the little info out there at the moment. That's got to be as offputting for potential investors as it is concerning for current investors.
I understand that the company can't comment on a live court case, but what are they doing to break the deadlock? What's the expected timescale for any JV partner at Bhukia, how may parties are they speaking to, etc. and what level of confidence do they have that a JV partner will free up the court stalemate? What does 2022 look like regarding progress at our other assets?
Some PR from MB is required ASAP.
Without wishing to sound negative, I'm genuinely not expecting anything from this week's court listing, unless a favourable JV partner who can break the deadlock is formally on board with PAT beforehand. Not sure on the likelihood of that being the case.
As ever though, I'll be delighted to be proven wrong.
In terms of any buyout, the BOD and a majority of shareholders would have to agree it. Any buyer would have to make an offer which is attractive to HE1 for it to be seriously considered, and 13p isn't it at this time.
While everyone will have their own opinion about an agreeable SP for takeover, in my opinion (and it is my opinion only) I don't think any offer of less than the last year's high plus 50% would be entertained.
Hi there,
Many people have been underwater for some time on this share, including myself until last week. I don't think anyone can (or should) tell you what to do regarding your investment strategy on this - it is something for you to research and make your own mind up about.
For what it's worth, last year there was positive share movement when the drill contractor was announced, share movement into spud and the helium show. We know that a drill contractor is to be announced for this year's drilling, and that drilling is scheduled to start in Q3. Personally, I expect positive share price movement on news of drill contractor and spud. The output from those drills are obviously unknown at this stage.
If any 'current unknowns' appear in the meantime (e.g. major investor, JV, takeover), this will also have an effect on the share price.
Hope this helps.
JL, just going off the way the case was kicked down the road in 2021, and MB divulging he's having talks with a potential JV partner and assessing whether they may assist with unlocking the court situation.
Of course, the court may rule in our favour alone tomorrow or a subsequent session, but (and it is only my opinion) I *think* it's more likely that a JV partner will be selected on the basis of both of being able to unlock the courts as well as our wider commercial needs.
Does anyone have the link to the case status website page please? Looks like the website might have been updated.
FWIW I don't think there will be any transformational news this side of MB agreeing a new JV partner for Bhukia which is agreeable with the courts.
I haven't messaged on here much in recent times - without much news there hasn't been much to talk about.
@JL, I recall that, after the postponement of the Bhukia decision around March this year, the conversations at the time were that 2022 would be more progressive for PAT than 2021. For me, that remains the case - personally I'll reappraise the situation in Q2 next year, but until then I'm just keeping an eye on things periodically.
*If* the case was heard today, I presume PAT would need any judgement to be formally published/put on record before releasing any RNS. I didn't see a judgement recorded on the court website, but might have missed it.
Three options available in court:
1. Rule in PAT's favour
2. Rule against PAT
3. Kick the can down the road (again)
Assuming the case was heard today, I am working on the assumption that the outcome is option 3, based on past history and the stability in share price this afternoon. I suspect any informal news for the other options would have filtered out and the share price affected accordingly.
I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong though!
I tried to go back a few pages to find the drill depth vs drill speed thread, but couldn't immediately find it (and I'm supposed to be working, so can't have an in-depth look!).
From my own 'back of a fag packet' calcs, later on this week is when I have us reaching target depth, so Thurs/Fri this week or early next week is my own expected timeline for news, and anything sooner is a bonus.
My opinion is... do your own research and create your own investment strategy, including any de-risking, accordingly. I don't think anyone else can really inform regarding a comfortable point to top-slice, exit, etc. as it'll be individual to you.
For what its worth though, based on my research and understanding of the company and its fundamentals, the short position mentioned has not changed my own strategy to hold.
@Ndn71: "A substantial part of the overall risking relates to the “play” risk, which is the same for all prospects. Therefore, if one well is successful, it would derisk HE1’s other targets. We estimate that it could double the overall chance of success for the other prospects."
http://www.helium-one.com/analyst-research/