Member Info for Ejackson

A thought.
We’re Stifel brought on board at Frasers request?
Are we being played by Frasers? They make sure all expressions of interest are dismissed but then understand where the highest bid is pitched. Let the SR run its course, dispose of Education as they publicly called upon STU to do and now paves the way to table a bid which will net down to cheap price as they accumulated their shares at vastly lower prices. Let management continue to perform as they have done, reach sales of £1bn and refloat in 3 years time at a significant multiple higher than today and cash in again.
As a strategy this would reward Frasers hugely and beats MA’s usual strategy of buying a company when it’s in pre pack administration and having the headache of reinventing it.
If this is the strategy, he will probably need to get on with it as despite the SP, the Board is building turnover and profits quickly which would only mean having to pay a higher price to gain Schroders etc approval.

Thank you Skindle but that has to be worrying when you consider the latest TU and they were joint broker in the formal sale process.
If the best they can arrive at is £3.45, then I am lost for words.

Interesting 1GW, thank you.
Your figure for Frasers rings true to me as I recall them selling a bit at the beginning of the 8.3 RNS being released which caught my attention.
Not sure why they did so but it would be nice to see them carry on as they have almost doubled their money on the shareholding they bought that triggered the mandatory bid.
Yesterday’s fall in the SP is mirroring what Skindle alluded to following the previous TU being issued. You can’t help but feel we are being completely played and with virtually no free float my sense is this isn’t going to get any better unless Frasers show their intention to sell down and improve liquidity.

I feel your pain Skindle and my patience has worn thin too.
I am looking at it two ways. Firstly, the company appears to be in rude health after many years of problems. Secondly there is a disconnect between this and the SP.
Having got to the first stage, which excercised much patience to see it delivered, I am minded to give PK 6 months and see what he can do to deliver shareholder value.
As a new CEO, he will be keen to make his mark and opinion will be driven by addressing the second point I have made.

And thereby hangs the problem Skindle. His mere presence deters any rational investment.
I am at a complete loss as to why we are looking at an SP of £2.99 today. It just makes no sense.
You are also right to point out that today's pattern has mirrored the last TU. I hope the next month or so doesn't do the same.
The Board need to provide a credible explanation as to why we are where we are and the difference in today's SP and the expressions of interest that led them to determine these weren't worth pursuing.
Was it the main Board or MA's decision?
Something smells and it's time for some straight talking.
PK is planning an investor presentation so it would be sensible to start with why the SP is totally disconnected from what the numbers are telling us otherwise there is no point in doing a presentation and trying to convince us of the strategy he has for delivering in the medium term.
To the best of my knowledge, we have no broker coverage with the exception of Edison, who we pay for. I am happy to be corrected on this but where are Numis? I haven't seen any guidance from them.
New CEO, record figures, ambitious growth for the future....why aren't they screaming from the rooftops.
Again, it smells.

‘Integrated communications provider Adare SEC has signed a three-year contract extension with online value retailer Studio Retail’
Who owns Adare? Endless, the new owner of Education. Couldn’t help but notice this link. Not suggesting anything but the tightness of parties involved is interesting. Does Endless know a bit more than most about Studio?
Elsewhere, it is annoying me why we didn’t get more binding offers given the level of initial interest. I cannot get away from MA being our nemesis in a number of ways and would value the opinion of Schroders as to what their input on value was.
Final thought, Pre tax profit of c.50m, market value today c.£260m. Go figure.

I don’t think Frasers would be vocal unless they were entirely happy with the SR to date Skindle.
They called for it in the first instance to maximise shareholder value as they didn’t like the suppressed SP and it was backed fully by Schroders.
They have a seat at the top table so will be privy to almost everything that is going on. Their silence is deafening but I believe it’s all because they are content with where it is heading and the fact that any info, leaked or otherwise, has been zero gives me confidence that we should all collectively benefit.
We will find out shortly.

.....and it looks like you have got your wish 1GW.

I partly agree 1GW. I have previously said that it feels to me like they are putting the finishing touches to something before making an announcement.
The TU is being used as a bit of a smoke screen. The numbers are known to them and they could easily have released an RNS per the original timings. In the meantime, with PK getting his A team in place, in particular Le Brocque committing full time and being so bullish about the future, I believe the current health of STU isn’t in question.
I am not as sceptical as you re: Fridays for RNS release.....I just want to know the facts and am not bothered which day they choose!

Studio will provide a post-close trading update for the financial year ended 26 March 2021 as a whole during the middle of April.

This taken from the RNS released on 30th March. I suspect we might finally see something later today after the market closes and given today’s date.

Monotonous, yes, but all we can do is examine what we believe to be going on and decide on investment strategy from there.
Looking at it from a different angle, you could observe that whilst no one is buying, no one is also selling. The recent corporate appointments re: digital transformation and whilst not essentially news, the fact that PK is proceeding as CEO per the succession plan, gives me a feeling of confidence as to the overall health of the company. PK has expressed that he wants to take STU to a £1bn revenue company which won’t be lost on any potential future owner.
Results will be revealed soon and I am expecting them to be strong. The delay for me is due to the SR and it could be for any number of different reasons so probably best not to speculate. Not long to wait to find out though.
Given what is known and the total radio silence since this process started has been nothing short of incredible, I felt comfortable enough to top up yesterday as I feel that on fundamentals alone, STU is too cheap again.

Hi Skindle. I am not advocating a merger with NBrown, merely speculating it might have been explored and the slide rule placed underneath the numbers.
NB has had a whole heap of troubles to contend with in recent times and whilst there might be some synergy, it has a feel of us going back to our troubled times and starting again.

Thanks Libero.
I believe there are any number of outcomes following the announcement of the SR.
Some of my thoughts below:
I suspect Education is viewed as something of a poison pill so we maybe engaged in talks between two buyers. We know what YPO were prepared to pay before the Competition Authority stepped in so that provides a helpful yardstick. They may have to consult the relevant authority again with respect to the new buyer which may slow things down. Equally, this might be the case for Studio as a stand alone entity.
They maybe considering a separate listing for Education on AIM and then leave STU to continue to trade on its own or be taken over now or at a future date.
There might be a proposed merger. Interesting to note PK came from NBrown and Schroders hold 12.14% of them too. Probably unlikely but still possible.
There might be a Management Buyout backed by Private Equity. Attractive to Management as it would incentivise them and give the opportunity to MA to keep some Stub Equity. The Non Execs need to be on there toes if this is the case and ensure full value is achieved and we are not sold down the river.
I am certain there would have been interest from a number of acquisitive sources but at what level is key to the response from MA/ Schroders and reflecting on the defence provided via Edison to MA after his mandatory offer, the business was valued c.£4.50 which was before the huge uplift in revenue and profits that we have seen.
Just a few thoughts but any of the above and others may be in the mix. We could still continue to trade and hope that the market starts to reflect fair value but history and where we are currently doesn’t bode well on that front.
The deafening silence, one line updates and pushing the TU out a further two weeks suggests to me that they are putting the finishing touches to a deal as after nearly 4 months, if there was no interest or it was derisory, it would have been announced some while ago.

On a positive, the CEO succession looks to remain in place. I read this as a vote of confidence from PK as to him being comfortable with the future direction of the business in whatever form that is.
Thereby hangs the problem for shareholders though. We don’t know what direction that is.
Mid April, should this be the time they choose to announce the outcome of the SR together with the now delayed TU, will have been over 4 months in the making since it being announced on 8th December.
I feel we should be being told what is afoot. You can bet your bottom dollar our two largest shareholders are being consulted which whilst on the one hand I am irritated they are in the loop and we are not, On the other, I feel my interests are being looked after. The register of additional IR’s adds further comfort that full value will be achieved should a sale be the preferred option.
As a final thought, I hope it is not lost on the Board that this whole process will be very unsettling for the employees, to whom they paid so much respect in the last release of results. Attrition and uncertainty will now be more prevalent and that will affect morale and performance. A decision needs to be made known to all stakeholders ASAP.

At this moment in time Skindle, all we can do is wait and see.

https://www.printweek.com/news/article/adare-sec-signs-three-year-renewal-with-studio-retail

It appears that it’s business as usual at the moment with the reappointment of Adare per the article above.
I am not sure we can read anything particularly into it although they are taking it down to the wire in terms of the TU and an update on the SR.
I will be beyond irritated if they issue a further holding RNS that simply states its ‘ongoing’. That would not be acceptable after almost 4 months less a few days of waiting.
Time to provide a full narrative as to the future direction.

MS stated that January accounts for 25% of the annual revenue and January 2021 was significantly ahead of budget.
Very nice start to the year.

...I don’t deny NCYT is an outstanding company both now and will be in the future, however, I am tired of the market taking frankly taking the piddle. It’s become a joke and sadly I have sold and will concentrate on investing elsewhere.
I wish all those keeping the faith well and hope you will be ultimately rewarded but today’s shenanigans with the SP is too much to try and justify rationally.

Agreed Obelix and we are as cheap as a dodgy LFT....

It could go either way Skindle.
The flip side to what you suggest, which is entirely possible, is that a potential buyer may appreciate and value the current /transient management structure given the recent and without question, impressive results they have produced.
This is not a company that is in trouble and has bold ambitions to grow. The only issue is that the market refuses to recognise its value. It pains me to say it but MA is right.
I am fascinated to see how this plays out and one of the things of note over the past few months has been the unbelievably low volume in trades. Pleasing that the II’s are holding and indeed Lombard Odier have been quietly adding.
I can’t see MA wanting to buy STU. It just doesn’t fit how he has been behaving corporately and my gut feel is that he wants the money from his investment so he can deploy it elsewhere.
Only a few more days left in March for the TU RNS to be released so all should be revealed shortly.