RE: A big month ahead2 Dec 2024 10:23
Hello ACE24 nice to see you have a new alt account.
Here’s the GEX reality. As per the RNS it’ll take them 10 days to lodge the report to DEMIRS. So if this were a normal month that would maybe be processed around the last week or so of the month, but of course it’s December and most organisations will wind down as of Friday 20th or maybe if you’re lucky Monday 23rd. So in all seriousness GEX are looking at a January drill start date and due to the New Years Festivities it’s realistically going to be no earlier than Monday 6th January.
Then, as per todays RNS, the drill will take a whopping 50 days (hopefully no delays) so by the time GEX finish it’ll be Monday 25th February, then a week for flow testing (if not a duster) so 4th March at the earliest for results.
The critical thing here is that the Alpha Fund’s 7.7% stake they got for free (see RNS stating shares were acquired for NIL CONSIDERATION) are locked in until January. And what do you think will happen?
Almost certainly Alpha will Derisk and dump all their free shares pre drill as they would be crazy to hold those shares on a 8% COS drill (I know they’re targeting 3 formations and some see this as a 33% COS, But I disagree with that logic)
Also as soon as GEX start the drill the BOD will be awarded 15,000,000 reward shares on top of 6,500,000 for the resource increase award (22% of the entire company). Ouch!
So the reality is probably a January drill start, March results and Alpha unloading their 7.7% stake in GEX in January when their lock in phase expires and a further 22% dilution through BOD reward shares. So a total of nearly 30% dilution by the end of January.
Here’s a link to the prospectus. See pages 252 for the drill Chance of Success COS and pages 189-190 for the dilution that will occur and the Alpha holding.
https://wp-georgina-energy-2023.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/07/Geronimo-Prospectus-CLEAN-P20a-c98.pdf
I’ll get called a liar on the GEX BB, but if anyone can find any inaccuracies in my post then please feel free to provide evidence to counter, rather than just calling me names. There are so many less risky helium plays out there people! Think before you buy!