Member Info for EdwardSeaton

I note that both the (very large) bulk carriers currently moored at RB have come from/are going to China and Taiwan.

Some companies are owned by very well-informed large investors. Others, such as this one, are owned by inexperienced, reactive, and fearful investors.

For example, the share price knows that northern hemisphere coal consumption is greater in winter than in summer.

But that doesn't stop many Thungela investors thinking they should sell now as summer approaches.

I intend to make the most of this ridiculous opportunity while I can.

Lookers have discussed both new and used volumes and margins in significant detail throughout the year in there results and trading updates. There is no new news for investors in your quote from the SMMT.

As I understand it, you are saying that the correct value of Thungela is the NPV of its next 10 years of dividends?

That would only make sense if you assumed a) that it was starting from a zero value when the next dividend is paid in May, and that it was dispersing 100% of its profits via dividends on a continuous basis.

What other company is valued by the market on that basis?

As per my post below, the thing that gets forgotten is that the share price never remotely reflected the upwards movement in the first place (hence the current absurdity of market cap being only 50% of profit).

Also, today (10th February), RB coal (LVG23) is 18.07% higher than it was on 10th February 2022. If it were not for the 2022 summer spike, the current price would be considered very strong.

Sooner or later (hopefully later, for those of us who are regular buyers), reality will overwhelm misplaced sentiment.

Market Cap £27m.

2022 profit c. £50m.

P/E of 0.5.

I'm wondering if there is a precedent for that with another company, either now, or in the past? Any suggestions?

980p is ridiculous. 600p would be far beyond ridiculous. I'm frightened for anyone who thinks otherwise

Thungela currently has cash of around 650p per share (and zero debt).

At 600p, litterally anyone could buy the second largest coal mining company in South Africa for less than nothing.

I would certainly be talking to my corporate bank about it.

I get the distinct impression we are shortly going to be able to buy £1 of cash for less than £1.

Lucky us!

simonsw00d - anyone who doesn't think £1 is on the near horizon, is in the wrong game.

This is a very long established and stable business that generates profit and cash of nearly £100m per year.

If that £100m is only worth £350m, then everything else is wrong.

I think that's a false correlation.

The price of coal indeed fell 2.89% today, and the share price fell 4.24% today. But those are no more than two facts that both happen to be true.

But to repeat, the longer the wider market takes to realise how hugely and fundamentally profitable the company is, the greater the buying opportunity becomes.

Not really Richt9999, because the share price never mirrored the upswing in the first place. If it had expected $250 plus to be a permanent fixture, then the share price would have been £100, not £10.

But even now with coal at $146 (13% up on 12 months ago), the business ex-cash is valued at less than 1 x profit.

Total madness, but as I have said before, long may it stay this way, so that I can keep buying at an absurd price.

A very euro centric perspective, pop31.

Easily the two largest consumers - China and India - are committed to requiring more and more coal, whilst global supply is at best stable. Europe is a side show.

Never tell a fretter not to fret.

Terry, I think you greatly underestimate how fundamentally cash generative TGA is. They had £930m in the bank at the end of November, and that was shortly after paying out the absurdly huge dividend in October.

Throughout 2022, TGA generated around £100m per month of profit and cash. That is c. 75p per share, per month.

I guess we'll have to differ on cash.

But for what it is worth, I am a monthly investor, so for the foreseeable future, the lower the share price goes the better. If it goes below £10, marvellous. Bring on the sub-dividend share price.

Terry - what have they got in the bank right now? £1.1bn?

Tiger179 - I have to say I really couldn't care less about 10s, 11, or 15s, 16s.

Until the world decides it should be 50+, I would rather it stayed low so that I can buy more for less.

I struggle to see how it can go sub cash, which I guess is between 800 and 850p, but if it does, great.

Do those words mean something, volcano? Or is your cat walking on your keyboard?

The dividend date question has been asked many times. It was last asked and answered only 4 days ago. If you can't be bothered to read other people's posts, why bother to post yourself?

China and India consume 18 times more coal than the whole of Europe does combined. European demand fluctuations are near-irrelevant.

giantsquid - yes 'Mook' has some responsibility via the excessive debt-fuelled expansion, but I would say the American and British governments are where the fingers of guilt should point.

I agree that it is odd that very obvious 'buys' are shown as 'sells'. The reverse does not happen.

Anyway, the longer the Market Cap remains at just 50% of full year profit, the longer the insane buying opportunity continues. I wish I could invest more each month.