Member Info for EdwardSeaton

I'm not aware of any meaningful equity investments, and if that were the reason, it would have been reflected in the profit.

If you look, pretty much all lines on the P&L moved in good directions, the primary investment was the relocation of the Black Wattle mine to a more productive area.

The near complete lack of communication with the outside world probably doesn't help, but then if you look at Thungela, when they do speak, the press only latch on to the bad news. When Thungela announced they had accumulated £900m of cash on 8th December, the press made no reference to it and headlined a tiny £40m cost of closing a mining area. Have a look.

The lack of market cap and liquidity obviously discourages institutional investors and there is nothing that can really be done about that. This is essentially a 100 year old private company with some external shareholders. In my view, on balance, the resultant stability and commitment is a very good thing.

I'm not sure about dividends. Bisichi is miserly and prefers to retain. Again, Thungela pays a spectacular (50%) dividend, and yet also appears to be condemned for this on the grounds that is it implausible and unsustainable. If they hadn't paid a dividend over the last 18 months, their cash would now exceed market cap. I suspect Bisischi will pay a final of between 30p and 50p (although they could afford an enormous amount more).

For what it is worth, I think Thungela is one of the most spectacular bargains available, and is currently priced as if coal is, and always will, be sub $100.

I think Bisichi is about 3 times more absurdly cheap, and I so I hold a great deal more Bisichi than Thungela.

And lastly London and Associated Properties plc (which owns 42% of Bisichi) is almost identically priced to Bisichi, but has the added bonus of a property portfolio worth a net £40m thrown in for good measure as well. All for a market cap of just £18m.

I take the view that no amount of feeble communication and anti-coal sentiment can deny reality for ever, but in the meantime, the longer these shares remain at these comedy prices, the more I can buy.

It is entirely incorrect to say the cash pot is empty post-dividend.

They paid a dividend in September, and on 30th November had 19.8bn ZAR in the bank.

At $183, the company is very substantially profitable.

But if you don't like, sell.

Basically, yes.

H1 profit (heavily impaired) was £22m.

Full year at, say, £45m, divided by 11m shares gives you your answer.

And a happy new year to you as well!

For such an enormous dividend payer, I'm minded to think we should rejoice that the share price is so absurdly low?

Why would we want to have to pay more than £12 to buy something that pays £6 per annum?

That would give it a PE of 2 rather than the current 0.7.

Hardly the stuff of fantasy.

I had always understood that insolvent companies were prohibited from paying dividends. Anyone know differently?

No.

The business, excluding cash, is currently valued at around 600pps, which is almost exactly equal to 2022 profit per share.

So, we have an enormously profitable and cash generative company trading on a current PE of 1, and people are still whittering on about the coal price.

I wonder if anyone on here believes the share price can go below cash per share? Because cash per share is currently around 700p, and rising at about 50p PER MONTH.

Why does that worry you, 0777brad?

Surely what we want is for the share price to stay right where it is? Where else can we buy a 50% dividend share that is itself fully backed by cash?

Given the very substantial production impairment in H1, I'm expecting 2022 profit of £45m to £50m.

A market cap of £30m is hilarious.

Other than liquidity, I struggle to justify buying any other share.

Far too much weight on here is put on the daily coal price.

It is basically saying 'buy in the summer and sell in the winter', which is obviously nonsense.

It is all academic at the moment as the current share price assumes sub $100 now, and forever.

Think of it this way:

This thing creates 70pps of profit and cash per month.

If the SP doesn't rise accordingly, the value of the business ex-cash falls by 70pps every month, and will reach zero by the autumn.

Rest assured, I put every penny I can where my mouth is.

It is curious.

Bisichi is punished for only paying a fraction of the divided it could afford to pay.

And at the other extreme, Thungela is punished for paying a truly colossal divided.

Agree, Malik.

The PE of the business is currently 1, and falling rapidly.

Absolutely, Beza, but that is to our advantage in that it enables us to keep buying at ridiculous prices.

Personally, I love that it is a company that is over 100 years old and largely owned by a family that is incredibly invested in the success of the business. I don't really like companies that are run by short term glory seekers.

However, there is only so much they can do to restrain the good news without breaking the rules. Sooner or later, the reality of profit and cash generation has to be revealed.

Good shot, picstloup.

Dechra plc, a constituent of the FTSE100 and with a market cap of £3bn, with make about the same profit as Bisichi plc this year, with a market cap of £30m.

That's just 1/100th of the value.

Transposing the information from Thungela's trading update this morning, and given that Bisichi's mining volumes were severely curtailed due to the relocation (completed in H1), I see no reason why H2 profit should not be substantially superior to the £22m achieved in H1.

The press release from Alliance News is a shocker. It just bangs on about the £50m cost of partially closing one mine, and makes no reference to the expected £840m annual profit (except as a context-free ZAR per share figure).

I've sent them a ranting email...

Basically, if you started with no money in the bank and bought this company at market price, you would be debt free this time next year (and own an enormous mining company).

(£1.8bn, less £1bn cash sitting in the bank, less profit over the next 12 months)

Anyone who is remotely in a position to do this should be sectioned and restrained if they don't.