Member Info for EdwardSeaton

Tiger179 - if you are holding a share that you think will fall by more than £3 when a £1.8 dividend is paid, you are certainly in the wrong game.

Broker forecasts 2 years out are, TBH, utterly pointless.

What we do know is"

1. At the very bottom end of SA production (10.5mt), breakeven is $93. So $132 remains substantially profitable (I get the impression many think otherwise).

2. SA operations are capable of producing at least 50% more than that.

3. Global coal demand is sitting at an all time high - the world cannot live without it for the foreseeable future, whatever the mung bean eaters might say.

4. Global politics have catastrophically disincentiveised investment in coal extraction and production, so supply will erode onwards.

5. They have bought another 3mt of annual production in Australia for a very modest outlay.

6. Very few companies have trade less at risk from future lockdown madness.

7. Very few companies sell a product with a more certain and predictable demand over the next 10 years.

8. Very few companies have such a clear commitment to paying a substantial dividend.

9. The company appears to be very well run.

10. It was noticeable that the suportive questions being asked at the webinar on Monday were from institutional investors.

For these reasons (and plenty of others), I'm in.

No, the Melksham plot is about 3 miles from their Holt HQ. It's on a roundabout on the A350 in town, and I'd guess it's 1 acre. It's currently empty. Not high value.

Yes, this is getting very close to being damn fine company.

Right product at the right time. Humble but high quality board.

I'm glad I hold a few for the long term.

Fromage - don't get me wrong - I think this is one of the most absurdly cheap shares on the market, and I am buying as much as I can on a monthly basis.

All I'm saying is that for the time being, if the price stays down here, I can buy more shares and more dividends than I could if the PER was between 5 and 10. There is a lot of upside to the pessimism and confusion.

Unless you are in it for the very short term, surely market pessimism is a good thing, Tom78? You can just buy more shares and more dividends for less.

And yes hbeevers, the Ensham purchase is entirely being perceived as a cost without benefit.

Agree pop31 - there is an awful lot of misreading going on here. They say the market looks forward, but not with this one.

To reconfirm what the CFO said yesterday, at the bottom end of production (10.5mt) breakeven is $92 for RB coal.
At 12.5mt, it is $83. So the current $134 is substantially profitable. However, the perception seems to be that the world has ended.

I think he is guesstimating a 2023 profit, fromage.

'Depending upon production volume, breakeven is between $83 and $92. $130 is far from being an issue'.

You are probably right that they lack clear ambition.

But that is small-fry compared to the disaster this hedge loss has inflicted. I can only conclude the person who signed it did not understand what they were signing.

The entire company brought down by unnecessary speculation.

What's it got to do with Brexit?

They ****ed up a dollar hedge on an epic scale.

It is incredible that you can buy a share for £1.80 that has declared an EPS of £1 and paid 83p of dividends.

Who says you can't live like a king with £1m of investments?

You'd better sell this and buy something that pays a decent dividend, then.

That's a good article (with the exception of the coal stock chart, which actually shows flat or falling stocks everywhere except China).

The interesting future dynamic is not global coal demand. It is the balance of demand and supply. Yes, demand will probably fall, but as with oil, there is very little investment being made in sourcing new supply of coal. Without that investment, supply is going to fall faster than demand.

That is why I am very bullish about the medium to long term price of coal - the world can't operate without it.

I'd certainly buy LAS for £16m. It's an insanely cheap way to buy 42% of Bisichi, and you'd get £40m of good commercial property thrown in for free.

The death of Michael will certainly change the dynamic of the businesses in some way, tbc.

The curiosity is that one son runs one company, and the other runs the other. But if Bisichi pays a dividend, John Heller's company gets 42% of it. Andrew is not returned that favour. I don't know the relationship, but it does somewhat disincentivise massive Bisichi dividends (which Bisichi could certainly pay).

Having said all that, I don't think many people have taken on board just how spectacular the 2022 results are going to be for both Bisichi and the combined companies.

I'll be very surprised indeed if profit isn't at least £45m.

In what way would you say the BoD run it for their own benefit?

Steelminkey - I very much hope your pessimism is widely shared for the forseeable future.

I love simple businesses that throw off cash and which the world can't live without.

Sooner or later, all these virtuous but useless companies will be valued as such.

But in the meantime, enjoy the cheap pickings.

I completely agree re retail investors. Small and panicky ones to boot.

Selfishly, as a monthly buyer, the lower the share price goes the better.

But sooner or later people will realise that $130 is only a low coal price in the context of a few months last year, and that at all other times in the past, $130 would have been the cause of celebration.

This has a P/E of maybe 1.5. Completely crazy, but then Bisichi is quite possibly sub 0.5. So who knows...

I'm minded to agree.

I rather suspect that if they had paid no dividends at all thus far, the share price now would be higher than the current share price and dividends paid to date combined.

Tiger, if it's huge dividends you want, then there is zero point obsessing daily about the share price.

The bigger the dividend is, the more suspicious the market will be that next time it will be smaller.