Member Info for EdwardSeaton

Guys - if you believe, this is an awesome buying opportunity. If you don't believe, what are you doing here?!

Market Cap = 6 months profit.

Profit £3m in 2019 with a $71 average.
Loss of £5m in 2020 at sub $50.

Average price in 2021 was under $100 and they were substantially profitable - about £6m ebitda?

Market Cap is now only equal to H1 2022 profit.

I've never seen that for a company before?

Most miners are on a P/E of between 1 and 4.

But 0.5?! Amazing.

Seems implausibly quiet at Rich Bay since Tuesday?

2+ a day, and then nothing (unless data is dodgy).

Like a share on crack, ecstasy and heroin. All at the same time.

Will ultimately be weighing scales, though.

Maybe at the moment, but I see no bad news in this one. The numbers are entirely positive in trend. And Rothschild is not famous for being an idiot.

Maybe best to think of it as an extraordinarily high interest paying bank account, Dodger777.

Someone just sold 35000 shares in a profitable company that is about to release results showing a P/E of 1.

I'd love to know what they bought instead?

I do, pop31. I think it is a misunderstood company, in large part due to their extravagance of dividend.

And this is compounded by the inability of many large investment institutions to hold 'dirty' shares such as this.

Having said all that, when it announces its 2022 results in 3 weeks or so, I will be amazed if there isn't some sort of response to a very profitable FTSE 250 company being priced on a P/E of sub 1.5.

pop31 - my thoughts, for what little they are worth, are that I'm not actually a fan of these huge dividends. I think the markets struggle to process their scale, and it leads to an unnecessary sense of despair if a colossal dividend one year is followed by merely a huge dividend the next. Basically, they have set themselves up for scepticism.

They did indeed say they expected to be cash neutral in December whilst the total disruption of the strike and derailments were caught up with. But there is no reason to think they haven't returned to making c. £50m per month profit and cash since the start of this year, as they were in late 2021 and early 2022.

The RB terminal was substantially busy last week, with almost everything going to the Far East and Indian/Bangladesh.

I certainly don't think this company's future profitability at the current level can be banked upon.

But equally, whilst global demand for coal is at an all time high, the political and environmental headwinds have resulted in very little investment in maintaining, let alone increasing, global coal supply.

This strikes me as a very well run business, and I am supportive of the profit enhancing and risk diversifying Australian purchase. But I'm conscious some investors would prefer it to run in a state of permanent self-liquidation.

Diamondman - The Australian purchase is months away from completion. I think September?

pop31 - your calculation assumes that the company ceased to be cash generative and profitable at the end of 2022.

They wouldn't be paying a dividend at all in May if that was remotely the case.

Each to their own, but unless you believe the share price has become detached from the coal price, the rest is mysticism.

No trader would say H and S always follows a pattern. It is a pattern that is statistically slightly probable, assuming no significant external events.

Given how hysterically reactive the share price is to the price of coal and supply disruption, I completely fail to see the relevance of H and S, or any charting?

No body part can possibly know if RB coal is going to be $300 or $100 in 6 months time.

Not wishing to steal Redbull's thunder, but my goodness, the RB terminal has been busy this week.

So you think the share price has fallen since last summer because of the proposed acquisition announced last month?

I wish you well with your other investment decisions...

So here we are - finally, a company with a P/E of 0.5.

Has that happened before?

No, not sure, just an observation.

But the nature of the business precludes a huge amount of institutional investing.