Member Info for Edgein

FG,

Very true. Interesting too that the bonds are on a 5 day VWAP so we know who's interest it is for a low share price. However Art sure isn't helping us any. Still fully reliant on state production numbers from their website and very little update on progress of the GGS. The company could regularly update us on these, mining companies for example will regularly say 25% complete 50% complete etc rather than leave shareholders guessing. We were told at the start how many metres had been laid, but not since. Will completion be end of June or end of July (2-3 month previous guidance), they would know by now. Updates should help.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas yes I was in Oilexco from the start through the Brenda/Nicol appraisal drilling and development. Sold in the £3-4 range. News flow was very different to here, continuously positive (for the growth phase at least), clear and regular.

Also their offshore reserves never reached as low as $0.40/bbl as COPL is now valued, I've never seen anything like that before for onshore US light oil reserves. Its currently around 1/6th of what Art paid for them and those were very cheap at circa $2.18/bbl.

Stas,

Interesting numbers from those wells before they were restricted etc. But those were the bare bones and the peak came just before the wells had to be restricted due to the rising pressure. At no stage did they maintain even 8mmcfd continuous injection over a decent period before it had to be brought down to 3mmcfd again. We've yet to see what full miscible pressure will do field wide at 8mmcfd let alone 12mmcfd. So the 1900bopd previous peak was a field with issues. With more of these wells tied directly into the GGS and others into the new high pressure lines we should see what these best producing wells can do between now and year end, but imo we've not even come close to seeing the potential of 8mmcfd and full miscible pressure let alone 12mmcfd. But hopefully we'll find out over the next 6-18 months as GGS is upgraded, pressure builds and wells are unrestricted. I'm still sticking to 3000bopd by year end, 5000bopd by middle of next year and perhaps 7-9000bopd from the BFU if they reach 12mmcfd before the end of next year.

Not including Cole Creek or BFFDU.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

I already put a discount on the 2P reserves of BFU and CCU. I think if we threw in AM and Ryan we'd need to be paying them! :)

Regards,

Ed.

About $350m would clinch it, or about US$75c/share. They can then have the infrastructure and the injectant and the large discovery for free.

Regards,

Ed.

Mal,

"They have a greater understanding of geology and stopped drilling though shifting sands, new drilling techniques and technology have made shale profitable!"

Its likely that the large company will have a better understanding of the geology as they've production in the PRB. But Mobil didn't get the Frontier 1 to flow back in the 50's-80's where as COPL recently did. Yes drilling techniques and modern seismic will be much better today than in the 80's. More so look at the oil price back then. Also don't know where running sands come into it or shale for that matter as all of the target reservoirs are conventional (if a little tight) sandstone reservoirs.

Regards,

Ed.

Civil,

Yes good to see another positive update. Focus is on upping their production from their "exceptional assets". Only a matter of weeks now for more updates on the GGS upgrade and possible production update perhaps before that as those CCU wells stabilise.

Regards,

Ed.

Bob,

Great volume today too and those trading ranges are certainly just a guide as some marked in the sell column aren't sells. Early doors there seem to be sell order in around 3.05-3.1 but capitulation pushed that further. When the share price was 3 on the ask I couldn't get a quote at 3 for quantity so the buys at 3.06-3.1 helped to shift that seller.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

In neither of our lifetimes are those carbon credits going to be worth more than the oil that's being pumped out. Especially the volumes of oil that could be associated with the RS report. The climate catastrophe rhetoric is already starting to unravel (world on fire, mass extinction, sea ice etc). The most ironic thing I heard in the last couple of years was a group of environmental activists went into the Norwegian sea to report on the lack of winter sea ice and had to be rescued by an icebreaker! Someone had been reading too many Greta tweets. The oil is the prize not carbon credits, they would just be a bonus if they come.

Regards,

Ed.

FF,

Be careful what you wish for as that presentation may also show that we have a NPV10 around $500m. Around $120m of infrastructure (not including the upgrades), about $70m of injectant and a £14m market cap. :)

Regards,

Ed.

FF,

Yeah I agree to an extent, Art's timing and financial handling over the last 12 months has been poor culminating in the Feb 1st announcement. But I disagree, the MF has shown that the oil comes out quite easily indeed. In fact the gas is traveling through the reservoir much faster and easier than first expected (higher permeability than modeled). What happened then is that both oil and gas production rocketed ( I guess that's your rocket science part) before the old GGS started to creak etc. Shiny new pipes should get that under control and we'll be left with the high permeability and the previous issues of the rising pressure as more and more gas and oil gets returned is dealt with. We saw how easily the oil came out when production peaked at circa 1900bopd when they were doing intermittent injection of 3.5-8mmcfd. We've yet to see what continuous 8mmcfd, let alone 12mmcfd will do to the production profile.

Regards,

Ed.

FF,

Debt won't stop the completion of the GGS and by all accounts the wells that have been tied directly to the plant and those being converted and upgraded have sent the company up from less than 1000bopd at the start of the year to over 1300bopd today. If that trend continues with more conversions (last one went up 110% production wise) then growth is very much there. Their 9 best producers are going to be tied into the new 5 mile GGS pipe, that's due to be commissioned 2-3 months after it started. GGS phase 1 upgrade started late April so if all stays on track that's end of June or end of July completion. Again current debt won't stop that or the JV talks. If that JV completes BFU would only scratch the surface in terms of future growth potential.

Regards,

Ed.

Doug,

I can understand complete why there are not more shorting this as they could be wiped out EUA style. Coincidentally when I first bought EUA it also had a market cap of £12m and its assets weren't reflected in its market value either and there were many with the same type of posts as yours. But once the market realised that EUA could potentially sell those assets for way more than £12m it hundred bagged. Again to short is to expose yourself to a potential company making JV announcement and a subsequent short squeeze, folks have previous suggested the shorting percentages on Spreadex and IG etc. That's a massive risk or gamble to take.

Regards,

Ed.

PS. the ship isn't sinking yet that's for sure. Hedge isn't nearly as bad at $70 compared to what it was at $100+ and production by all accounts is going up before GGS commissioning.

Nige,

Agreed, they did say it was going to be an exciting 2023. I'll be interesting to see what they've concluded by year end, although I'd expect the rebrand/Angolan presentation long before that. Focus is certainly on the new strategy, hopefully the Brazilian production is just around the corner.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

It will clearly have been JP behind the new direction and it makes perfect sense for him to come in to lead the oil and gas strategy. He'll know what they've been spending their time and money looking at so to see him further commit to his large holding is very positive (even though he's getting them cheap at 0.4p). It'll be interesting to see what they acquire in Brazil as SK's previous interview he kept mentioning production. Hopefully our new chairman's contacts will step up to acquire this production and reserves. With JP still buying, that is still my intention too as and when other investments come in. With the new pan Angola/Brazil oil and gas strategy, we've seen some Angola, lets see some Brazil. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Agreed guys good to see the new board coming together to focus on delivery of value from the new oil and gas strategy, JP still keen on receiving paper at a premium rather than cash. Our new cornerstone investor in as chairman and even the Chinese investors are still in after the change in direction, clearly they also see the upside in the recent moves. With JP now at the helm and making the decisions it'll be interesting to see what comes next as they're off to a great start with the new Angolan assets.

Regards,

Ed.

Trujack,

Given how close the consolidation vote was then there would likely be those that want to push to expose whether or not all votes were counted. People can do as they please, but they'll need to prove that the actual vote was higher than those recorded. That will require the supermarket brokers to admit that they didn't get the votes recorded and there is a reason that people are paying £5 commission per trade etc. A bit like that chap that folks on here kept referring to who was selling the cheap jewelry. Thinking something is one thing, proving it is another. Should the company have put the special meeting document out in an RNS, absolutely.

Regards,

Ed.

Tiburn,

We'll just have to wait and see. the only times that I can think of where large companies or majors came in for % ranges between 10-20% tend to either be on very large producing assets or deep offshore exploration ($100m per well). I don't believe that a large company like the one that folks are thinking of would acknowledge that sort of % for what is largely exploration/appraisal at this stage. But lets wait and see. I do accept though that if they complete the JV and the first phases of drilling goes well they might buy COPL out.

Regards,

Ed.

Trujack,

Well they did have their vote, whether or not it was counted was another matter. If people don't want to pay commission they'll get the service that they pay for, s***e. :)

I do agree with Stas though on the point that transparency was also an issue as the AGM and special meeting document was shuffled away on Sedar rather than getting a UK RNS. I hold another UK dual listed company that is about to do a capital reduction and they released that on LSE rather than shuffling it on Sedar. Management are like chalk and cheese. But for those that are here for the JV and development of the large discovery folks have to accept it with warts and all.

Regards,

Ed.

Trujack,

Well then perhaps they should get themselves better brokers rather than those cheap supermarket style brokers. I voted and it counted and if it happened again would they not be using those same brokers, therefore same outcome.

Regards,

Ed.

Tiburn,

Well I'd imagine that the large company wants at least 50% and operatorship of the Frontiers. I don't think that there was ever much doubt that the JV would be after the CCU as that's where the bulk of the RS report covers. That presentation was based on CCU and western flank of the BFFDU. They'll need to delineate the BFFDU more to increase that area. But when you include the reserves and contingent of CCU into this deal it makes $50m look a bit modest when the upside they also get is that 993mmbbls prospective. I reckon we all know just how prospective that is with oil flowing from Frontier 1 and Frontier 2 anytime its perforated (included from damaged reservoir). Again if folks check out the deal that LBE received recently for much lesser assets they'll start to realise the scope here.

Regards,

Ed.