Member Info for Edgein

Doug,

The Special meeting document says that 2/3 of the vote is required to pass the consolidation.

Regards,

Ed.

Duster,

No I was referring to buying back shares not bonds, but he could potentially do that too with the bonds (again check out Pharos if you don't know what share buybacks are). It depends on what you see as a long way. I reckon they may be able to get up to 5000bopd by middle of next year. I think they may have even hinted at up to 7k bopd at a higher gas injection rate. I don't think I've ever seen a production profile for 12mmcfd for the BFU, that would be more interesting.

Regards,

Ed.

Y99,

Don't mind you asking, but don't need anyone to speak on my behalf. I've done my talking through my vote, I think its the wrong time for a management change so late on in the JV. But its certainly the right time for me to vote no against that consolidation. So I've already made my voice heard and we only need 33.34% of the vote against the consolidation to bin that and get Art to focus solely on operational success to get the share price up and list then wherever he wants. Name change is suitable now that Nigeria has been scrapped. I hope you syndicate guys have made your voice heard in the voting though and its not all letters to the board etc.

Regards,

Ed.

To get the number of shares in issue down. If folks think only massive companies do buybacks then take a look at Pharos Energy (formerly SOCO). They're currently on around 5-6k boepd and are constantly buying back their shares. If Art manages to get the company up to 5k bopd net through either BFU or JV no reason he couldn't do the very same thing here removing any need to consolidate. Share buybacks have even higher impact on low or wrongly priced companies too. Also the potential here starts imo around 5k bopd, even higher production leads to even higher potential for buybacks. In fact if we saw an RNS stating at production milestones buybacks would commence (and no consolidation) the share price is likely to rise.

Regards,

Ed.

Steve,

It depends on which market maker completed your trade. Some of those operate more on AQUIS, WINS used to report trades on that exchange on some stocks in the past, don't know if they still do. It just so happened when you placed your trade a certain market maker was on the ask at the time. I think some of my previous crcl buys were also reported on there too. No big deal really.

Regards,

Ed.

Tran,

Why am I here and am expecting lots of bags? Well providing the consolidation gets voted down there's still lots of potential bags up for grabs. This one has some of the best assets of any small oil and gas company. They have a clear path to get production up from the BFU from the GGS upgrades. Previous production showed what the BFU could do before the pressure issues and they have 40.5mmbbls of 2P there and a possible 50mmbbls recoverable. That alone is enough for a small mid cap company. Then we have proof of mobile oil in the Frontiers and Dakota over a large area. This is not unusual for the PRB, that has attracted JV interest. Concluding that and the fate of the massive discovery would be in the hands of a large successful company and we'd get carried along on that wave. That's where the real multibags lie imo. So there is enough to keep any long term investor happy.

Why are we where we are now? Well Art so far hasn't gotten the BFU upgraded and almost had the company run out of money Feb/March so obviously the market punished the company for that. But these assets are almost too big to fail so my faith remains in those. We need Art to focus on those and not some quick fix consolidation at the cost of actual holders. Get the JV done, get the production up and the share price will follow, the bags remain even including the discounted bonds, so worth while hold for long term imo. But need to get rid of the short term uncertainty for that to remain the case.

Regards,

Ed.

Leeman,

There have been very few Tr1's , a couple of recent ones from the companies law firms and from this new investor. This one is mainly PI held currently so there should be more than enough voters out there that can make a difference and have their say. They should by now have decided which way they're going to vote and have a very short time now to do so. We'll know by 30th if shareholders have made a difference.

Regards,

Ed.

Leeman,

Its certainly not too late to do something about it. Folks have now had adequate information, all the information they're going to get from the looks of it, to make up their minds (special meeting document) and still have time to vote even though they have left it pretty last minute unless their brokers are quite good. For those that have voted at least we've had our say. No point in complaining for those that haven't voted. I voted no to that consolidation and its not over until the 30th and I'm still hoping that the consolidation vote is no. Past AGM's had a low vote, I don't expect this one to be low. :) Yeah I agree though if approved I'd expect something towards the top end of the consolidation too, even 100-1 isn't acceptable in my book for reasons previously pointed out. Its not necessary to get the production up or JV done, do those instead.

Regards,

Ed.

DC,

Well they already have made a profit on Mt weld. They bought it for £200k of equity, farmed it out for a carry of A$500k and sold some down for a further A$1m in cash. Well done to them already. So if they find something commercial then what a bonus. There's plenty of other stuff going on too now that the focus is on the first oil and gas acquisition, then perhaps Mambare, jv and Canegrass too. Lots of pies going around, I just hope they have enough fingers. :) Second tranche of the cornerstone investor funding in about two weeks.

Regards,

Ed.

Yes both Atomic and Cuda were loss making companies. When BFU was brought onto production it was doing circa 200bopd but at its peak during MF it was doing over 2000bopd, that's when they encountered the pressure issues due to higher than expected permeability. They didn't pay top dollar for either Atomic or Cuda, they paid from memory circa $2.18/bbl, I've seen North American PDP change hands for around $20/bbl. So they got the assets on the cheap, the funding methods since haven't worked out to be as cheap though, especially with events this year repricing those convertible bonds. Yes COPL never got far past their hedged oil production, but they've 85% interest this time.

The MF did work though, no reason to think when they get back to 8mmcfd+ injection rates that the performance that they got at the start won't return. Also they have flowing vertical wells from the Frontier 1, 2 and Dakota so it will be interesting to see if your theory that horizontal developmental wells won't flow lives up to scrutiny. That is a big contrast to all those other operators in the PRB that have drilled many successful wells.

Since production wells in the PRB cost $4-6m, one operator had brought their costs down to just $4.1m per well (lets take an average of $5m per well) You'd need to have a pretty pessimistic view to think that a potential 50/50 JV for about $40m of drilling ($20m free carried) wasn't an option. In fact I would think that a $20m free carry for example would be below my expectations of a possible JV given what LBE recently received for much lesser assets.

Regards,

Ed.

Pilot,

The flaw that I see in your theory is that they're already funded for the GGS upgrade with the $10m+ in the bank and the construction underway. That will end up with 8 wells tied in with more to come and you can bet its their best producers that they'll be tying in first. That should lead to stable and increasing production, it was only batches of wells that they were flaring (the highest pressure wells).

The way I see the future going is that after they get the GGS upgraded production goes pretty rapidly to at least 2500bopd, perhaps 3-5kbopd before year end. Netbacks transformed, certainly $40+ at $70 WTI and $2-3/Mcf at 5kbopd. JV completes giving a cash or carry element, COPL fund their costs from late 2024/25. JV potentially starts drilling horizontal Frontier CCU wells by late 2023 or early 2024.

Consolidation voted down (fingers crossed), less uncertainly for long-term holders.

Regards,

Ed.

Shaa,

Yeah we saw last time what 8mmcfd did to our production profile before the pressure issues became apparent, that was gross production, this time it will be mainly net (85%)! Yeah it sure has been a precarious run at times but hopefully behind them once they get the GGS upgrade done. Beyond that additional phases should be much more easily funded through the enhanced production. They now know what to expect when they have the gas injection going continuously at the high rates from the past reservoir performance. Large discovery is just a very big bonus, sounds like they're seeing oil in the latest CCU recompletion too, probably needs a while to clean up like the last one.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Shaa,

This is what we got recently from the company:

"Construction of the BFSU Gas Gathering System Upgrade is to commence on April 29 subject to weather. Construction to commissioning is expected to take approximately 2-3 months"

So even if there were weather delays the timetable will be roughly the same putting completion perhaps into early Q3. That's why its close to the turning point for COPL. We know from the past what the field was capable of from past peaks in production. We still have to see what continuous 8-12mmcfd can do, but that will come after these initial upgrades.

Q1 not as bad as I was imagining though, some green shoots in there of what can be achieved in terms of netbacks once they get the production volumes up, like they did to some extent previously.

Once the madcap consolidation notion has been kicked to the kerb its certainly got recovery potential with or without the JV. Concluding the JV obviously would help immediately. Strangely no comment from AM in these results about what's going on with the special meeting etc. Also seems sub Sahara being wound down which i also see as a positive as the company has enough going on in the US.

Regards,

Ed.

R Dunc,

You're struggling to see the uproar about the consolidation. Firstly institutions will look at the company performance and not the shares in issue. Not running out of money and getting the production up are the best ways to attract institutions and get rid of these mystery shorting cabals that are apparently going around. As mentioned previously I3E didn't have any problems attracting institutions with 1.2bn shares in issue so that's just a red herring. Then we have the special meeting document and that states the reason for consolidation as to facilitate fund raising. So of course the consolidation doesn't prevent dilution, with the budget discounted convertible bonds that's inevitable , what it does though is compound it. LTHs would have a shrunken % of the entire company especially when the first waves of dilution come. I'd much prefer to be diluted here if necessary rather than be consolidated up to 1000-1 first.

Also it makes things much more uncertain for long term holders, that threat of consolidation will remain looming if approved. That increases uncertainty for anyone that plans to hold as it can be triggered on a whim. Looking at performance here it certainly doesn't build confidence that's for sure. In fact the share price looked as if it had a chance to recover before this consolidation was slipped out on to Sedar. Now we're just about hanging onto the 5p.

Best way to get the right institutions in is to build the company through the GGS upgrade and JV, get that done and there's absolutely no need to continue the cycle of consolidate and dilute. Perhaps then AM can earn that salary. Do it like successful oil and gas companies do. The consolidate and dilute tactic didn't work last time, not likely to work this time either as production still isn't any higher, still no RBL or JV. Make progress equals higher share price, success brings in institutions.

Regards,

Ed.

Eazy,

No not at all, I believe that the large Frontier oil discovery is every bit as real as the proposed consolidation! lol It just seems old Art is choosing to promote one more than the other. :)

I wonder why that is, the company silence on the proposed consolidation continues........

It might also cause him to fall off his chair on the 30th, fingers crossed.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

Surely the evidence via RNS suggests that the large discovery is there and very real. Why? Because there's been oil produced from the frontier by the current CCU wells, the recompletions are also delivering decent production from damaged vertical sections of reservoir over a potentially large area (pending more recompletions). None of these have yet been completed with modern fracced wells which should produce way better. Also RS have been referenced in RNS as suggesting a large oil in place resource. So all information released through official channels suggest a large mobile live oil discovery.

I can understand then why a large recognised company would then be interested given success of others in the PRB. So I don't follow the whole scam theory at all.

Regards,

Ed.

Andy,

Yes some don't want to believe that's the basis for the consolidation even though there's a lot of convertible loans still to deal with over the next few years and the SL has an equity element to that too, moreover the legal document for the special meeting also states reason for the consolidation. But anyway they can deny all they like rather than face facts and the facts are all there.

Can he possibly minimise dilution by getting the production up or JV done, sure, lets see what happens if he gets on with running the company and some progress on production not some quick fix solutions to the share price that have failed in the past.

Regards,

Ed.

Alfresco,

Why do people here think its dilution. Well those of us that have been here for more than five minutes know that this wasn't just proposed before it was done before. The last consolidation was done before at around 0.26p or 26p equivalent. That brought the shares in issue down from 16.5bn to about 160m. So the company has a history of diluting then consolidating then diluting again (convertible bonds, outstanding debt SL etc etc). So its just history repeating itself yet again. That means those that were in previously for example 1m shares became 10,000 shares now the proposal is to take that down to just 10 shares! Luckily some of us held way way more than 1m!

Now the share price is 5.5p the equivalent pre-consolidation of 0.055p so it did nothing to increase shareholder value, its been decimated since the previous round of consolidation and dilutions. The basis for consolidation remains the same though to facilitate further fund raisings. Therefore same tactic to be used yet again. Just look at the history of the company and you'll realise why this doesn't sit well with actual holders in here. Blow ins won't mind this as it'll be just their first time, they might now be as happy on their second or third consolidation.

It doesn't have to be obliteration of existing holders though, the assets are great, all he has to do is use that $15m in discounted budget bond cash to develop the assets. That should be more than enough to bring these assets to full production apparently, just $4.5m to upgrade the GGS. Do that get the production and share price up and then list wherever he wants. Does he not have faith that the GGS and JV will get the share price up?

Also the basis for consolidation document doesn't mention any other listings, just further fund raising.

Regards,

Ed.

It wasn't me that brought it up, I just replied, before that I was too busy reading all the bile directed towards long term holders.

Regards,

Ed.

Jiving,

Yeah something has to be done about it. The 100-1 the last time didn't do anything to create shareholder value but then again it gets proposed. We're now at a fraction of the shareholder value since the last consolidation, but that doesn't seem to bother some of these new blow ins. Ironically as soon as they get their 10-20% they'll probably be gone so don't really care about the consolidation.

Regards,

Ed.