Member Info for Edgein

Portsmouth,

I think its just rebounding after the capitulation from Spreadex topped off by Anavio selling. Big disconnect between the share price and the assets. I'm not expecting material increases in the production before GGS is commissioned, hopefully this month. After that and with the new pipe, new separators, heater-treaters and all ready for operation he can then let rip. Imo biggest rise in production should come before year end as a result of the GGS, more so than the CCU recompletions or the well conversions. Hard to guess right now about all of the well conversions though that could prove to be an unexpected gift, lets see.

Regards,

Ed.

Also imagine if the third CCU recompletion of the Frontier-1 has flowed oil and they can start to book reserves over that 8000 acres. I hope that potential JV company brings a large cheque book with them.

Regards,

Ed.

They have completed all of the well conversions and are within weeks of commissioning the GGS.

Regards,

Ed.

Speel,

Hopefully you should still be ok, the value of the BFU infrastructure (not including the oil reserves and injectant) is currently around 19p per share. The current 2.4p is pretty much ignoring everything the company is doing apart from the bonds. This situation could change significantly on a successful GGS or JV. Hopefully time for a well conversion update or GGS update. Have all the well conversions been completed, don't tell some, tell everyone Art.

Regards,

Ed.

Mcadder

How rude, you should at least have ended your post "have a good week". :) I know what would make a good week, is if we got an update on the well conversions. The last one showed a 110% increase to prior production. That should make June numbers stay on the May trend. GGS in July should hopefully put us on a much steeper sustainable trend though given what MF previously did.

Regards,

Ed.

Billy,

Oh I know, all of that should be released via official channels. When the well conversions were complete it should have been updated to market. As the GGS made material progress it should have been released to the market. He's still inclined to release the bare minimum.

Regards,

Ed.

Duster,

They'll likely update on the JV when there is a material change on the JV. They should by all accounts update on the GGS, which according to whatsapp posted here has made significant progress since the last update. That would be nice to see through official channels.

Regards,

Ed.

I'm not quite sure why anyone is expecting a different level of production for May than that given in the 5th June RNS. I'm not expecting it to be any different to the 1330bopd given and the reasons for that. Hopefully June will show an improvement as someone got a whatsapp the other day to say all of the well conversions had been completed and the GGS was almost complete. So June will possibly show an improvement over May and if the GGS and wellsite is commissioned mid-July we may see an even greater improvement then from July onwards.

Regards,

Ed.

Unnd,

Why not look back at all of the bond conversion releases? You will clearly see its only the fees and interest that gets converted at VWAP5, principal doesn't.

Regards,

Ed.

LLP,

Way too many variables to work out the fees and interest between now and 2028. Like oil price, average bopd production. JV with perhaps cash or possible JV production, sale of assets etc etc. But those that are claiming that the BH are somehow making mountains of money at this share price are simply wrong, also those that are suggesting that fees and interest are comparable to the principal also have no evidence of that as the shares converted so far at VWAP are a small portion of the principal converted.

Regards,

Ed.

Unnd,

Well go back even further then, say Feb this year (previous 2024 and 2025 bonds were similar), the vast majority of converted shares are principal (6.75p) and not fees and interest (calculated at VWAP). Unless they draw down further on the bonds then the maximum bonds to be repaid are 131 which will have an unknown amount of interest attached due to not knowing when they'll be converted or paid off. Its a bit like trying to guess what COPL's cashflow will be between now and 2028 when the last of these become due.

Regards,

Ed.

Unnd,

That is the mistake you are making:

the issuance of 44,063,646 common shares at a price of US$0.0817 per share pursuant to the conversion of $1.8 million principal of 2027 Bonds and $1.8 million principal of 2028 Bonds by a Bondholder. Following these conversions, COPL's outstanding bonds include:

2027 Bonds principal outstanding: $12.6 million (63 bonds)

2027 Bondholders: 5

2028 Bonds principal outstanding: $13.6 million (68 bonds)

2028 Bondholders: 5

The Company will also issue 14,103,578 common shares pursuant to the share settlement option exercised by Bondholders for settlement of $0.4 million of Conversion Payment amounts (and related accrued interest) due pursuant to previously converted 2027 Bonds. The number of Shares issued for settlement of these Conversion Payments is based on the lowest 5-day VWAP following election of the share settlement option for the Conversion Payments."

Above is the recent conversion of bonds. The principal amount is at 8.17c per share these principal bonds so 44m shares were issued for these 18 bonds. For the bondholders to break even on those they require a share price of 5.4p, that's just to get their own money back. With these bonds there were 14m shares issued for fees and interest attached to those bonds, only those shares are at the VWAP or about 2.85c. So in other words of the $4m issued $3.6m in principal and about 10% or $400k issued in fees and interest. These converted bonds no longer accrue fees and interest. I hope that clears it up for you.

Regards,

Ed.

3LP,

I'd also like to see dougs calcs for these "FREE" shares too, before 1st Feb 2023 conversions were done at about 12-16p and fees and interest shares worked out at about 13% (similar to the new bond terms). If fees and interest shares came in at the principal conversion rate i.e. FREE we'd have a heck of a lot more shares in issue. Again the fee and interest conversions since the repricing of the bonds again at about 13% and those converted bonds no longer generate any interest. Given the price paid of 80% and the interest and fees I get the bond holders getting way above the current share price as only the interest/fees is at the 5 day VWAP not the principal.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Hopefully it won't be as quiet when they announce the first acquisition in Brazil. That may also trigger the presentation that covers activities planned for Angola too.

Regards,

Ed.

Roxi,

Yeah its likely this kit that got a mention back on the 5th June:

"The Company is progressing on all fronts outlined in our last Operations Update. We are pleased with the progress on the construction of our Gas Gathering System Upgrades and are fortunate to have been able to acquire the necessary high-pressure production equipment we require here in Alberta, avoiding supply chain and long lead times in the United States."

Details also given in the 23rd May release:

"The wellsite facility upgrades in the scope of work include installing high-pressure separators and high-pressure fire tubes for each separator."

Hopefully get another detailed update on the GGS in the near term.

Regards,

Ed.

Tuckman,

Yes that is true, we've yet to see what the field can do without the pressure restraints on it and what outcome the continuous high rates of gas injection. But we do know what the field started at back in the Atomic days and what it got to early in the MF not long after they tried 8mmcfd. The new system should be more than capable of handling much higher pressures than those encountered, that's what it will be designed to do. Like you say, according to those last texts/tweets we shouldn't have long to wait. I did a quick check and the last update on the GGS was on 23rd of May where they were they had around 2400ft installed (briefly mentioned in comments in the subsequent ops update but no details given). The rest they've apparently put in around 5 weeks, so hopefully shouldn't be too long until we see these increases in bopd.

Regards,

Ed.

Simmo,

Well done on getting your average down to 7p, I'm currently just above 8p but not sure if I can get it down much further than that. With the size of the assets those in at 20p+ should still do OK. But the company needs to address the news flow issues. There have been ample opportunities to update on the GGS. I folks knew the other day that the GGS was almost done (according to those other messages), would they have sold? This one needs news flow other than bond issues. Once this GGS is us holders will want to see regular production updates not via email!

As to the NDA I can understand that. If you think of tight wells that are drilled, many exploration companies keep the economic results of significant wells tight (its like an NDA on drill results). You'll be very surprised to see just how many manage it, even in African countries. Small companies are much more likely to leak sensitive info rather than the large ones. I've seen many a small cap over the years move unusually the day before a duster or commercial well etc. So I'm personally not expecting any leaks around the NDA if its a very large company in these discussions. Given the scale of the project these would be at a high level, loose lips sink ships.

Tuckman,

Its not guess work though. Look at the information release by the company. As the pressure was building so was the oil flow rates. They didn't achieve the continuous 8mmcfd gas injection rate though as the pressure in the best production wells was going through the roof. That gas safely returned through the GGS upgrade would allow these wells to perform at a maximum rate. Also increasing the injection rate by 50% up to 12mmcfd should have an even greater impact. So its certainly not entirely guesswork. We may soon find out what continuous 8mmcfd will achieve when wells don'y neefd to be restricted. Also when this field was brought on it was doing 220bopd, it peaked circa 1950bopd with limited or restricted MF. Lets see what hammer and tongs MF does. Hopefully start to see the impact of that by July/August.

Regards,

Ed.

Simmo,

I can't speak for everyone but some of us have been boot-filling down here. I agree though he should have been updating all via RNS as the GGS got completed not to a random select few. Perhaps then we wouldn't be at 2.15p. Because if that GGS pipeline is down then its close to 2 months guidance rather than the 3 months. Also we've seen past projections from the company that 8mmcfd would deliver 5-7000bopd so this GGS upgrade is material news from the company and the last official update suggested something like 1000ft of pipe welded and fitted etc. So if the rest is down then we should be seeing that in a news release. If full well site upgrades and some equipment need before full commissioning then he can also say that in the update. But getting that high pressure pipe in well within the guidance should be released to market not via emails text or whatsapp, that would have helped shift some of these shares available.

Regards,

Ed.

Shouston,

Clearly COPL, number 1 obvious reason. PREM are in Zimbabwe and COPL in the USA, geographic risk like chalk ans cheese. Also COPL should be imminent on a dramatic rise in production, also our JV/funding talks still ongoing. So personally I don't see a comparison between the two. Years ago PREM used to be one of my trading stocks due to its volatility. It and VAST were usually all over the place.

Regards,

Ed.

Mal,

That looks about right, I was thinking $50-100m. This isn't some exploration target that they're getting into, Frontiers and Dakota have all produced oil. They just need the horizontal development wells to get the job done now, perhaps stimulation too. But would be interesting to see what MF or CO2 injection would do with or without stimulation. CCU has Proven, probable and contingent, folks would do well not to forget that. Also some folks on here are look at the risk from a small company perspective not a large company perspective. These company that make multiple $bn per Q think nothing of sinking $100m per exploration well in deep water offshore west Africa, even though most of those come up non-commercial. Phase 1 development of CCU Frontier is likely to be a fraction of that.

Regards,

Ed.