Member Info for Edgein

Shaa,

"For me, million dollar question still remains - who is buying?"

The answer to that is every man and his dog, even the ones that are on here every day trying to convince others that they're not. Duster's £100m barely covers the upgraded infrastructure. Not the reserves nor any other discovery, large or small. These could multibag and still be cheap. Roll on the commissioning, this month all being well.

Regards,

Ed.

Roxi,

Proving up isn't exactly a term I would use about the BFU. There's already something like 34 wells there, so its already been puin cushioned. For those that have been here for some time we already know what happened the last time they tried to inject 8.5mmvfd. Production and pressure both went through the roof. Personally that's all the proving up I need where BFU is concerned. New improvements will mitigate the pressure issues.

Proving up the CCU, ok but they have historic oil producing wells there with 2P and contingent, they need modern drilling and fraccing and potential MF or Co2 injection, but not exploration either. BFFDU certainly at the exploration side of things but the well COPL drilled did encounter oil in all target formations (only tested the Dakota).

Regards,

Ed.

The presentation does make for interesting reading for sure! Multiple targets for acquisition onshore Brazil with the main target as gas production. Acquisition focus in Brazil and further acquisition in Angola up to Q1 next year. Even better than that though is that the first well will be drilled in Angola this Q. Field depth is just 700m so pretty shallow, looking forward to them getting their first production. Perhaps then be capped at more than £3m. Sounds like the expo targets are large.

San,

Mining is all legacy stuff now. They're selling both Mambare and Wowo gap and even count the other mining in as legacy now too. Canegrass could be interesting too so I wouldn't mind at some point (once they get production from Angola/Brazil) seeing a few holes drilled there. But the current strategy of oil and gas redevelopment is likely to see them transformed much quicker. With talk of drilling in Q3, not long to wait, might get another update by the 19th July presentation. Hopefully they'll post it online afterwards.

Regards,

Ed.

Pilot,

Well we have different views on the structure of the potential JV. I believe with reimbursement of past costs and current reserves on CCU there will be both a cash and carry element. I also differ to Tiburn too as I think they'll be offering up a more material % to begin with. So it will be interesting to see what happens. There are thing in COPL's favour such as Frontier reserves on CCU, its not some prospective wild cat play like some on these threads like to make out. Also significant and upgraded GGS sitting right above the BFFDU. These talks are going to be complex indeed, hopefully see the outcome before year end, I'm sure there'll be lots to discuss.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

I sure do and am counting on it. Today's news suggests we're about 2 weeks (21st July approx) from commissioning the GGS, pipeline has already been tested. Our best producers have their own separators and well site equipment and winter rated Albertan gear all ready to be unleashed. Nothing then to stop them from getting back on track to where they were before the pressure restrictions as suggested by today's news. Therefore circa 2000bopd and pushing into the incline curve (previous targets suggested 5000bopd). It'll be interesting to see the outcome by the engineers for the new production profile as that will also likely include 12mmcfd injection. So I'm looking forward to seeing new peak rate projections above 7000bopd, but lets see what that report says.

Yes we're likely to have a very exciting year end as production builds as a result of today's progress and that cashflow builds as a result. I'll stick with my 3000bopd year end target as the pressure builds field wide, but will review that as the company progresses. Yes 5000bopd has implications for both cashflow and the JV, negotiating from a position of strength is always best from the companies concerned. Going to be an interesting H2, if JV completes, an unrecognisable one at that.

Regards,

Ed.

Pilot,

That all depends on whether or not you think the SL will exist by the time they get to 5000bopd. Imo it won't, I'm of the opinion that the JV will have taken care of that before then.

Regards,

Ed.

Pilot,

At $40/bbl netbacks (seems very reasonable for 5000bopd) that sort of free cashflow makes the current debt and bonds seem rather modest, that's of course assuming no JV during that build up in production.

Regards,

Ed.

FG,

Hard to say. What we do know is that its possible should they hit 5000bopd on the BFU to start doing share buybacks like Pharos etc are doing and certainly we would expect the fees and interest for those bonds to be paid off as they arise. We may be finally very close to the change of fortunes (this month) according to the RNS. Market still not recognising the significance of today's news, but it will sink in or get hammered in one way or the other.

Regards,

Ed.

He does seem rather irked this morning for some reason. I guess he knows the writing is on the wall now once the GGS completes as we head to peak production AND a production incline as noted in today's news. He's going to be fighting an uphill battle to stop this as pretty much nothing is priced in let alone a production profile pointing at 5000bopd+ from the BFU alone.

Regards,

Ed.

Tranny,

How dare you! I workout multiple times a week! I guess if I'm Art I must be on the night shift then. But then again you do like your crackpot theories don't ya.

Regards,

Ed.

Geng,

Yes its good to see the initiatives for the netbacks as well as production. This update and its significance will sink in to the market over the rest of this year and even more so when we get the commissioning RNS. We've now gotten winter specific separators in too for our key wells so the company is adopting to the past. With all this new kit installed and the final parts very soon to be installed I'm looking forward to the production incline. As that chap at the gas hearing said there could be as much as 50mmbbls recoverable from BFU alone, going to be an interesting H2, AM needs to keep drilling this message home until it sinks in.

Regards,

Ed.

"Oil production from the BFSU is a function of injection volumes. It is the Company's intention to resume injection volumes to a level to return to its previous oil production peak in late 2021/early 2022 before injection volume reduction."

"With the required upgrades to our field gas gathering system nearing completion, we are focusing our attention on a revised injection strategy to return the field to its designed depletion strategy which should result in a return to the previous production peak and an increasing production profile."

GGS equals a return to peak and an increasing production profile. Something some of us have been looking forward to since they acquired Atomic.

Regards,

Ed.

Charlie,

Very true, we've the vast bulk of H2 to see the impact of the upgrades on our 9 best producers and this time as the field hits a new peak we've got 85% wi so we should finally see the positive impact of getting Cuda. Its a crucial time to be getting the cash flow up too. They need to get to the point where they can at least pay those vwap bonds from cash. Hopefully not long now. Even though GGS is second fiddle to the JV, its almost as equally important. So to see all going in without glitch is awesome, commissioning within a few weeks too. Good to see AM give a focused update on the GGS though, was much needed.

Regards,

Ed.

Charlie,

Yeah great to see good progress being made and on time too. Previous schedule was 2-3 months from the end of April. Great to hear that the pipeline is in and they're just waiting for the well site equipment to arrive. Upgraded separators from Alberta too to deal with any future weather related downtime. Looking forward to seeing the impact of all these upgrades from late July onward, as you suggest its very positive to see all this going on without delays etc and will likely lead to significantly increased production in the near term.

Regards,

Ed.

Trans,

You're in luck as they've been already released in an RNS:

5th June:

o April 2023 average gross production: 1,170 Bbl./d

o May 2023 average gross production:1,330 Bbl./d

From April update:

"The Company's crude oil production averaged 1,200 Bbls/d in Q1 2023 (gross). During the period severe winter storms caused multiple field shut downs due to high snow accumulations and low temperatures. Oil production on April 17th was approximately 1,000 Bbls/d (gross), with 350 Bbl./d (gross) shut in at the BFSU for a flowing to pumping-flowing well conversion and production facility repairs. These works have been completed, with the wells being returned to production in a staged step-up manner. In addition, there is a similar production volume (>300 Bbls/d) restricted due to pressure related facility constraints."

If they achieve that just from the well conversions and the GGS upgrade we'd be looking at 1650-1700bopd and that is all from the recent RNSs. Increasing gas injection rate from July-Dec should be in addition to this.

Regards,

Ed.

Charlie,

A hostile bid can come on any company at any time. A bidder can build a position under a notifiable position. but shareholders would have to vote and accept/reject any offer made so it can't be that low-ball an offer. I wouldn't accept anything below 50p/share and I would see that as cheap for the BFU alone. But the transactions that are taking place in the PRB are at many times our market cap.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

Interesting information that you posted on the acquisition of Northwoods by OneRock Energy. While the price they paid is undisclosed, the price Northwoods paid for 112,000 acres wasn't in another article:

"Northwoods added more than 112,000 acres in the Powder River Basin through a $500 million acquisition from SM Energy Co. in 2018."

These are large sums being flipped around, COPL is in real danger of being bought out with our minuscule cape (a fraction of what COPL paid for these assets)

https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/pe-firm-acquires-powder-river-basin-ep-northwoods-energy-205629

Regards,

Ed.

Tiburn,

We have limited information to date as to the pressure in the Frontiers from our acreage, but its likely low ambient pressure. Because the only well COPL drilled to below the Frontiers lost drill mud through those reservoirs. That suggests that the drill mud was over balanced and therefore could enter the reservoir. That doesn't suggest its overpressured or oil and gas would have more likely entered the drill bore. Also CC needs pressure support like the BFU does to get the oil out, its not naturally highly pressured or it wouldn't need pressure support from the get go.

What happened to COPL was that the Upper and Lower Shannon was similar, but because the permeability of the reservoir was higher than expected the injected gas worked better than expected. Way better sending oil and gas to the production wells and rapidly increasing the pressure, both down hole and at the wellhead it seems. This could happen again at the Frontiers, but fear not, a new JV partner would likely put in a high pressure system from the start (no plastic pipes). As an operator of production in the PRB they'll know exactly how to design the CO2 or MF, whichever they decide to go with. So to summarise, we're not likely to encounter the same issues with the development of the Frontier as seen in the Shannon. Fingers crossed if/when JV completes cash shouldn't be a problem either.

Regards,

Ed.

Fwit,

I didn't say no more conversions but I did say they would have less impact when demand increases due to ops performance, also 4 small bond holders no longer hold a material amount (just 23 of the 131 bonds). There's certainly some straight forward gains to be made by COPL. These 4 wells to be converted were restricted by wax since 2022, so the dewaxing and converting those wells should make for easy gains as should the completion of Phase1a of the GGS. Once COPL show they are a going concern that should not only impact on Anavio's risk assessment of their bonds and their willingness to sell those at a loss, 18 bonds converted and sold for just over £1m between March and June.

Wouldn't make sense for them to continue to do that if/when ops turn around. Again with ops performing there is no reason then for the massive discount to our current assets let alone future potential. There are companies scratching around trying to find commercial gas in North Africa worth many time what we are which is madness given the assets here. So given what I expect from the speed of the turnaround here, I expect the share price to follow suit. That's the reason I've been adding.

Regards,

Ed.

Fwit,

Don't agree with that at all. There's about 300bopd restricted pending those well conversions to pumping flowing. With the high pressure wellsite upgrades (separator and heater-treater) it should prevent those wells from waxing up again, so building a firm production base. Also as previously reported there's another 300bopd restricted due to pressure. So imo the production build up from these issues alone will make for a rapid recovery. Once this trajectory is established there is no reason for there to be a massive discount to our current reserves. We've 40mmbbls of reserves, similar to some of the smaller mid caps like JSE etc. Market cap just circa £12m.

It was the selling at any price from Anavio and Spreadex that did the damage here, there's only a small number of bonds between the other four bond holders so that will likely to be coming to an end. If Anavio see progress they may stop converting and might actually make a profit on those 6.75p bonds and warrants. But that's not the be all end all for sure. Once ops are working there should be enough demand for the shares that the bonds become irrelevant. Weak ops and mass selling has gotten us down here, a reversal of ops and high demand will imo get us back up just as quick. I'm expecting COPL to look like a different company by year end just from the BFU. In fact I reckon they'll pass the previous BFU peak production this year and the market will have to start pricing in some of our large reserves.

Regards,

Ed.