Member Info for Edgein

Nige,

Absolutely. The 16mmbbbls of contingent and 297mmbbls of prospective is a good place to start. First acquisition in Brazil scheduled for H2 23 or early H1 24 according to the latest presentation. This place will get a lot busier once they spud their first Angolan redevelopment well.

Regards,

Ed.

Shaa,

I don't think anything can be 100% definite in any sector, but it should fix the issue. At a guess I'd say 95-99%. A lot of fields have pads with multiple wells on a single pad with several pads then connected to a separator and then that flows onto the storage and sales tanks. What COPL are doing is a great deal of precaution with each of our 9 best producers getting its own high pressure separator and winter gear (the port-a-loos they can be know as too it seems). Each well will be able to operate under high wellhead pressures and be able to be accessed during heavy snow too. So there shouldn't be any more pressure related issues, nor need to flare gas to bring the wellhead pressure down. All of the upgrades are rated to handle this, that's what they're designed to do. So I'm pretty confident that the next time they try to inject 8.5mmcfrd the pressure from our best producers will be manageable. Other wells can be upgraded or added to the new system as necessary. So it should be a permanent fix to our previous issues. Also further upgrades to the GGS, including more gas compression (up to 12mmcfd), should be straight forward and paid from cashflow.

COPL did get petroleum engineers to model these fields before development and we saw those charts to 5000bopd. It just turned out in practice that the gas flowed better through the reservoir than expected, as a result reservoir pressure, wellhead pressure and production skyrocketed and had to be shut in to prevent gas leaks all over the place due to the plastic pipes. I'm pretty confident that the solutions put in place, the new steel pipe, the new high pressure rated separators and heater treaters will do the trick, that's why I was boot filling over recent weeks. The past issues are almost behind us, we might also have a JV to boot, lets be avin some of these updates.

sub-£30m market cap just doesn't cut it for hundreds $m of infrastructure and assets. So the waiting continues as long as it takes for this to get a realistic market value, same strategy worked very well with EUA.

Regards,

Ed.

Good afternoon Shaa,

Yeah its just treading water today so far. Volumes are starting to return to normal levels again but we couldn't keep doing many more days of 50-100m traded as some of COPL shares don't get traded. :) Lets see what it does when we get our next update, momentum traders likely to return. Hopefully get another few bags towards fair value on the next ops update. Market is still not grasping the significance of the GGS upgrades and what that means for handling the unexpected pressure related to the better than modelled permeability in the Shannon. Once that is sorted onward and upwards.

Regards,

Ed.

SZ,

Yeah agree, there's likely to be those that rush in expecting an imminent update. Bargain hunters are around today sweeping up what remains of the momentum traders.

Regards,

Ed.

NtD,

Yeah no rush, some will be here for the asset value to be reflected in the share price and for the development of the large discovery. Its quite possible that Art is allowing the production to stabilise/tweak after all our best producers are brought back onto production. Obviously the incline curve beyond that occurs as pressure builds field wide when they increase back to 8.5mmcfd again (as we know what happened last time, pressure and production going through the roof).

Regards,

Ed.

Shaa,

Good find, thanks for posting that video, it sums up things for the newcomers. It'll be interesting to hear what he thinks about the COPL price in the next video. Will it be along the lines of 35-40p or will he also add in the potential for the large discovery too.

Regards,

Ed.

Already over 20m traded in the first hour of trading. So the looming news is still bringing in the buyers. It'll not just be the $200m of infrastructure and injected methane/butane that's grabbed their attention, nor the 40mbbls of 2P reserves mainly currently at BFU (even at a Colombian style $5/bbl in the ground for light oil is a lot of money, Wyoming isn't Colombia!). But also the activity at CCU and BFFDU.

Someone talked about a lake of oil earlier, like some sort of underground limestone cavern full of oil. These are sandstone reservoirs at BFU or Frontiers and Dakota so more like a large solid oily sponge rather than some massive cavern or cracked/fractured limestone. From what AM said in past interviews and updates, the Frontiers like the Shannon (at BFU) is low pressure. The recompletions at CCU aren't game changing because they flowed low bopd, they're game changing because they returned live oil at all. In fact since then they have increased their confidence in the large discovery and now got a LOI from their preferred partner.

These wells need modern horizontal wells and as the reservoir is low pressure may need stimulation but certainly needs gas injection or miscible flood just like BFU. What the old wells do is that they show they can get live oil to surface from damaged reservoir and through a thick layer of sludge/emulsion (lots of water based drill fluid lost when drilling to Frontier 2, below Frontier 1.

So given the large assets and their value at BFU alone we'll continue to get these very healthy volumes of churn, but solid news on the GGS upgrade or JV position should set us on a firm trajectory.

Regards,

Ed.

OTB,

There was some selling, but since they've dipped it there has been even more buying. Folks are starting to realise the gap between the value and the assets here.

Hopefully the company will soon in be a position to say more about these CCU recompletions as some people may misunderstand what is happening with the few CCU recompletions. As the company last said, the wells will be stimulated in conjunction with the JV.

To sell before the GGS upgrade commissioning or the possible JV update, brave is one word for it!

Regards,

Ed.

Also should read perforations not performations! I should proof read some of my posts, :)

Regards,

Ed.

Sorry not oil based mud, water based mud, they should have been drilled with oil based fluids.

Regards,

Ed.

FR,

Sure formation water can be normal but some oil reservoirs produce dry oil. As Roxi pointed out these Frontier wells at CCU were drilled with oil based mud. The F2 is low pressure so the drill mud entered into the reservoir. That needs to be recovered. With the first recompletion the company mentioned the sludge or emulsion that the well was producing as well as the oil. These wells likely need drilled/completion with oil based drilling mud, there is no evidence that what is being returned from any of these wells is formation water. AM did explain what was happening in a previous video. You may find that if these wells only produce dry oil if drilled and completed correctly.

Also as for the guy/gal that asked about a squeeze, an acid or nitrogen squeeze can be used to clean up a well around the performations, it may be used to remove some of the sludge/emulsion that is around the performations of these old wells. The fact that they're getting oil from any of these damaged old wells suggests that not all oil around these wells has been degraded by the water. But lets start hearing some of this from the company.

Regards,

Ed.

Yeah agreed, I reckon we're at least 35p per share below where we should be right now, ahead of the production incline and the possible close of the JV. Once the production incline is firmly established they can focus on getting more wells into the BFFDU and hopefully let the JVP get on with it on CCU. Then start booking lots more 2P reserves.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

It didn't work for him. MM's trying every trick in the book so far today and all they do is get hit by more buying. Latest shake has failed.

Regards,

Ed.

Yeah, looks like it. Great volume already in the first 13 minutes, almost 10m.

Regards,

Ed.

Relax guys the GGS upgrade news is just around the corner. The company could mulitbag and still be cheap, should still be at least 20p/share and that still only values in a fraction of the current assets, let alone progress on the GGS or JV. You could double that if you include our current 2P reserves. So plenty of upside for those getting in early on this journey.

Regards,

Ed.

Les,

It looks like the Geemans are getting ready for the GGS update already!

Turvok,

I like in the barren wastelands of northern UK, the only advice I can give you is at night stick to the roads, keep off the moors.

Regards,

Ed.

Roxi,

It would be nice to see the mother of all RNS releases next week with both the JV and GGS, but even if its GGS only that may also have a production update as wells no longer require restriction or shut in when connected to the new pipe. So there could be some quick bbls to get out as we move into the production incline.

Regards,

Ed.

New folks appearing on the bb some of which may be momentum traders but they should realise what they've stumbled across.

Current market cap circa £25m

Approx $124.5m of infrastructure already in place (BFU has over 30 wells and CCU was partially developed for the Frontier 2)

JV talks on going with their partner of choice for the development of CCU

Injected gas and Butane, in a presentation last year valued at $60-70m. They already injected enough Butane to reach miscible state and were down to injecting small volumes of gas to maintain pressure. Oil production was restricted by current infrastructure.

On top of this the company has 40.5mmbbls of 2P between BFU and CCU (33mmbbls approx after state royalty). A recent gas flaring hearing suggested as much as 50mmbbls recoverable from BFU alone. Again in JV talks over the development of CCU.

So market cap is insane on current assets and reserves. So this is a company with two developed fields, one being upgraded to handle the pressure and oil production, the other poised for redevelopment. The current 3mmcfd injection rates were upped to 8.5mmcfd where oil production peaked but had to be restrained due to pressure. The Gas gathering system was to be upgraded last month to handle this pressure and oil production increase (news imminent).

JV talks

For the up to 1.9bn bbls in place between the CCU and BFFDU are at an advanced stage, tech due diligence has more than supported their view on the large discovery and these companies were discussing detailed financial terms before April this year. LOI has now been signed with their preferred company for CCU redevelopment. This would be the lottery ticket RNS if successful as would help fund CCU redevelopment and potentially much more (as we already have 2P reserves at CCU).

COPL have had an horrendous 6 months or so causing this massive gap in valuation and assets, but that looks like its about to be resolved in the very near term through de-bottleneck of the current production suggesting past peaks of oil production can be met followed by an incline production curve. So get your head around all that.

Regards,

Ed,

NG,

Current volume is over 1m per minute since market open so it will be interesting to see how the mm's handle this throughout the day. We're certainly back on radars again and likely get a strong close as many anticipate news on Monday.

Regards,

Ed.

NG,

We're certainly anticipating one any day now, last updates on the GGS upgrade suggested on schedule to get completed and commissioned in July. Pipe had already been tested etc. So that could literally drop at any time. I personally don't see that as the reason for the recovery, part of it sure. But we were over 4p recently before those two sellers hammered the price, I still see the current price rise as a recovery of that. GGS should really get us moving given what the company has said about the outcome to expect from that. De-bottleneck the production, previous production peaks and an incline production curve etc.

Regards,

Ed.