Member Info for Edgein

Nige,

Those comments made by CRCL were in relation to horizontal wells. This first well is to confirm their interpretation of the oil in place and the 60 odd mmbbls of contingent. So the well is an infill well into the large field, the field covers 3400 acres so its quite big. Tobias-13 is a vertical well, like a proof of concept, given the current oil price and the volume of contingent they'll not need to hit much to get a commercial onshore well. Sonangol will have picked what they believe will be their best spot to achieve that in this previously producing field, so bells and whistles came out with the minerals/oil and gas minister. So imo a high probability of success for the infill location.

If successful and they get similar to the 100m oil column they'll then select one or more locations and that may include horizontal development wells. Its those horizontal wells that may increase the oil in place as mentioned by the company. Certainly not essential though, 60mmbbls odd gross onshore at the current oil price is more than enough. Horizontal wells as you know could do several times the amount of production that a vertical well can do, also suitable for carbonate/limestone as they can hit more natural fractures etc. Its possible that with modern horizontal wells and modern logging they may interpret the pay better than then 90's. An increase in oil in place in combination with modern logging and completion may increase the contingent resource recoverable, in theory certainly. There's been a lot of developments in tech since the 1990s, like directional drilling, logging while drilling, a lot of it is now done digitally.

So I'm not counting my chickens until I see the TD RNS but I'm certainly hopeful that this infill well will be positive. Angola are looking to revive their onshore Kwanza production this is the well they've chosen to do that and we've 18% of it. Lets be avin it.

Regards,

Ed.

Chuggley,

Around July the company was doing circa 1250bopd. From the MD&A of the Q2 production was increasing but not yet stable. Also the company previously said they have around 300bopd restricted. That first 300bopd should be the easy wins for the company between July and September. The gas and butane will now be redirected towards the main production areas of the field since the GGS upgrade. We saw what that did the last time they tried 8mmcfd, current infrastructure is capable of handling up to 10mmcfd. So with the restricted production unrestricted and the gas and butane injection back in business I see 2000bopd as pretty low hanging fruit over the 5 month period from August to Dec. I'm certainly sticking with around 3000bopd peak target over that period, pressure should be looking pretty rosy down there by December. The only thing between the company then and FFD would be a few more infill wells and one injector (hopefully JV money well spent).

Regards,

Ed.

Confounded,

Would be nice if they were meeting in Dubai this week to discuss the future of the Mt Weld asset. No assays have been revealed from the 2nd half of that drilling campaign. Hopefully that's what the cashing in the chips meant! In the mean time Sonangol will be getting closer to TD.

Regards,

Ed.

Art,

The company now class all of their mining assets as legacy mining assets. They didn't even mention Mambare in the July presentation likely because its under right of first refusal. So I wouldn't be surprised if the company cashes in its chips on the mining assets to fund more work in Angola. Canegrass could do with some drilling or they probably won't get much more than they paid for it. But imo Mambare and Mt Weld could potentially pay for several more wells.

Yes true, Tobias given its size is likely to multibag the company and commercial flow rates could secure an element of RBL for future wells, but the mining assets are legacy, not likely to be developed by the company. Wowo gap chopped along with those alt power sites. Mambare looks like next for the chop if they can come to terms. If they have enhanced the value of Mt Weld through the drilling and that can fund another well or seismic then great get it out the door too. That tweet shows clearly that the focus is moving from the legacy mining assets and onto Angola. Great that's 16mmbbls of contingent and almost 300mmbbls of net prospective under the spotlight. Lets see some of that drilled and the multiple bags that the mining assets haven't delivered.

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Yeah the mm's are making the most out of the lower volume for sure. Combine that with the traders and momentum punters getting out. Hopefully they'll be replaced by more sticky hands though, the ones that I picked up aren't leaving my ISA any time soon. I want to see FFD of Tobias and Galinda and perhaps an expo hole or two. By then we should see what these elusive Brazilian assets look like.

Regards,

Ed.

Confounded,

Well done it looks like you took what was left at 0.41p and drove it to 0.42p. I wonder what Tobias-13 will drive it to! :)

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Your numbers are out a little. CRCL have just shy of 16mmbbls of contingent at Tobias and Galinda. If you count that as you owning 0.833% of the shares its more like 133,000bbls of Angolan contingent that you own. I hope they don't ask for those back! :)

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Interesting tweet that one as it hints at possibly cashing in the chips to fund Angola. Then we have this meeting coming up between Mr Karam and Mr Lenigas, all we have so far is positive indications from Mt Weld, perhaps they did find something there after all. We'll know in due course, they could of course sell off Mambare to fund well or two perhaps.

Regards,

Ed.

Good to see the company getting in the last of those funds in from the May placing as that money is now being put to good use now in Angola. Only a matter of time before the next wave of traders come in in anticipation of the well result. Hopefully afterwards we'll get more buying in and holding for the assets.

Regards,

Ed.

F1D,

Yeah that certainly was a highlight of that recent announcement. As it shows that the company expects to be in a very strong financial position as a result of the possible JV. Getting rid of those bonds would be a great leap forward for the company and the share price, its certainly played a role in why we are so discounted to current assets, let alone future assets. But there's lots of positives that others have been mentioning even today but the market isn't factoring in. WTI is soaring, earlier in the year some were predicting $100+ oil this year, looks like they may get their wish. Oil price improves the netback per bbl, combine that with the production increase from the recent MD&A and lack of hedging until next year and it'll make an impact for sure. On top the company expects to have the JV concluded by Q1 next year makes for a very interesting few months ahead. By the end of this year we'll see the signs of what lies ahead for the BFU production.

I hope that the company takes the time and opportunity though to update the market on the new BFU production profile and recoverable reserves. They only found out that the permeability was better than expected when they had the pressure issues over the past year so that will be taken into account as will the increased injection rates. So hopefully we'll see the new production projections for BFU before year end.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Yeah AET are currently on my watch list so I saw that news appear this morning. Yeah I agree, likely only a matter of time before CRCL is producing from Angola and possibly Brazil too. At least some are getting in at the bottom before these really start to move.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I reckon they're in the process of selling Mambare, if it was agreed we'd have to be informed of the price they got for it etc. But it will go imo, clearly the right of first refusal guys want it. Hopefully Mr Karam will be able to update us on that in the coming weeks/months.

We may even get an Angolan update in the mean time, like others have said today, we may get an ops update on well progress once they hit the oil column etc. But even if its early October that's not very far away now either. Market cap just about £6m, insane!

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

Also the company is talking about producing assets in Bazil, so that would come with production and reserves, opening up the possibility for reserves based lending to at least part fund. Mr Karam has a lot of financial contacts.

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

That's hard to say right now with so much going on. They're in the process of selling Mambare. But there's been lots of fund raising in recent months in combination with asset sales. They got Angola on the real cheap for what it is, lets see what they get in Brazil and for what price, if Angola is anything to go by its gonna be accretive to our market cap/asset value, potentially company making accretive.

Regards,

Ed.

Just to clarify, I meant biggest production gains next Q, as in Q4. We've still a little bit of this Q to get through first. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

Not yet, CRCL have said that if/when they drill modern horizontal wells into this large field it may increase the oil in place, then we may end up with more oil than originally thought. But this first well is another vertical well just like the other 7 previous producers and injection well, it will be logged and completed with modern tech though. So should give a much more modern interpretation of pay etc.

They have yet to acquire their first asset in Brazil as yet, but its listed in the presentation up to Q1. So still pending acquisition currently. Also mention of further consolidation in Angola so things may move quite quickly, in the mean time though most of the focus will be on the drilling and early production from Tobias. I think Canegrass lithium licence got a mention under legacy mining assets.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas20,

I agree the wells no longer need to be restricted or shut in after the GGS upgrade. However we do know that the gas injection patterns changed during the upgrade. They now need to redirect that gas back towards the main producing wells and we've now been told that butane injection comes in again from September (the miscible side of the injection). So pressure and miscibility should be on the increase from September. I'm still expecting some improvement in August, but the real production gains will come in Q4. Like last time it will take a little while for the pressure and miscible front to get on the move again. It look months to get from circa 800bopd to around 2000bopd last time, this time no need to restrict. So I still reckon our largest % gains will come this Q, and hopefully the incline curve will then continue until they reach peak injection rates of 12mmcfd. I'm hoping we see a presentation containing RS' new model for the 10-12mmcfd injection rates this year. I'm still expecting a strong finish to the year regardless of the JV, oil price and no hedge sure helps.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Yeah will be interesting to see where these are capped at the end of this month, £7m cap doesn't cut it. A lot of variables between now and next year as the company has mentioned one or more wells and then there could be the move to Brazil too.

Art,

They're likely to be in a closed period now so close to the TD on Tobias-13 and also Mr Karam has tons of shares and warrants so he's currently well kitted out. Also JP was taking shares in lieu of salary for months too so management are fairly well aligned with the company compared to many other small cap oilers.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Because AET are in the process of acquiring production assets that will give them production and the revenues that have been building up over the last year since the acquisition was announced (effective date). I'm not a holder there, but the combined assets add up to something like 5000bopd or something like that (I would need to check as I've not looked at them in months). Also they're buying 2P reserves.

CRCL at the moment have contingent resources, likely contingent on drilling the appraisal/development wells and reestablishing flow from Tobias. The modern wells may show that there's more oil down there than previously thought. Likely when AET complete their acquisition they're likely to increase in value further as they're still currently be risked that the asset may not complete. Likewise if CRCL proven up the oil flow and reserves of Tobias we'll multibag over time. Given the prospective upside of all three blocks that CRCL are currently involved with one day AET holders may be asking the same question about us! Some of our peers are valued 3-4 times where we are on much lesser assets that's why some of us are here for the multibags and we haven't even seen the Brazilian assets yet.

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

Yeah its likely to have been Angola among other west African countries to boost their oil production again. Nigeria is certainly trying to get back to their previous production peaks now that the majors have been pulling out. Angola have the ongoing onshore bid round (which hopefully CRCL will have a go at too). Also I posted articles earlier in the year where Brazil are hoping to double their onshore oil production by 2030, so as you say right place right time. CRCL did say in a recent presentation that its gas they're after onshore Brazil. So its a case of feet up and watch what happens with these new modern wells on the large Tobias field. Hopefully we'll have a market cap that reflects the assets in due course. JP was right when he said 2023 was going to be an exciting year for CRCL. Further acquisitions could drop at any time too.

Regards,

Ed.