Member Info for Edgein

Nige,

Yes from memory its next year for the Angolan bid round close.

Regards,

Ed.

Pilot,

Yes agreed the COPL "discovery well" is likely an extension of the Frontiers and Dakota below the BFFDU. The company now certainly believes its one big field. Since the RS resource report covered the western BFFDU it seems that they do too.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas20,

Absolutely, a lot of time and money has been spent on evaluating this discovery. Right through from the initial discovery well drilled at the BFFDU which discovered oil in Frontier-1, F-2 and F-3 as well as the Dakota right through to the DD, RS report and recompletions. The JV approached last September so over 1 year now, so I agree time taken is leaning more towards M&A imo rather than JV, but lets see, its likely a complicated deal, reserves/large discovery/carbon capture potential. LOI has been signed for the JV over CCU, but its clear from the discovery well and the RS report (which covers CCU and western BFFDU) that the oil extends beyond that. The fact that the industry leader is still in there 13 months later suggests they still like what they see. If it is M&A then Anavio still need dealing with and likely would be in parallel with the discussions. As they're not a significant shareholder (just warrants and convertibles and no TR-1 they'll have little influence at present on the outcome).

Certainly those large companies in the PRB are not only successful, but also very well cashed up. As well as falling off his chair etc Art also let slip that the industry leader wants it all. None of our 40.5mmbbls of gross 2P is associated with the Frontier-1 so very much in addition to the large discovery. So it will be interesting to see what the industry leader does over the next couple of months, if its at the subsidiary level or at the parent company level, whether its a JV or buyout. JV would likely leave the BFFDU as an unanswered question and would an industry leader want a smaller company operating on part of what looks like a continuous discovery or will they tie up all loose ends with M&A. Looking forward to seeing the outcome of the negotiations. Yes I would imagine that all of the Atomic/Cuda assets are under COPL America.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

The company has said they want to consolidate in Angola so I would imagine they will apply for licences in the current onshore bid round. The blocks for grabs surround our current assets there. As that would be commercially sensitive the company may not say so until the results of the bid round are known.

Regards,

Ed.

$50-100m in cash would be superb as the company is only valued at £14.7m! That would drill a significant number of wells in conjunction with the JV and likely lead to the completion of drilling at the BFU where much cheaper vertical wells are planned. That deal would only really be comparable to the recent joint venture between LBE and the Japanese. LBE however don't have a 993mmbl discovery (with 50% estimated recovery with EOR) or anything even close to that. So you really have no idea what an industry leader may offer for something on this scale. The industry leader is throwing around $bns at present. It would be an ideal time to have a report from a highly experienced reserve auditor like RS, and for CCU that's exactly what they have.

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

Fingers crossed! Hopefully it will come in as planned and that would lead to a lot more activity on Tobias. Even if Tobias isn't successful they'll have Galinda and they've lots and lots of expo targets as well as potential acquisitions in Brazil. currently well funded too. Its always best though to spread your funds just in case. Saying that with Sonangol being the operator and the importance of bring Tobias back to production I'm happy to hold for the result and beyond.

Luke,

No worries you can repost whatever you like. :)

Mike,

Most of my of and gas investment experience comes from North sea oil companies, one of my first was British gas in the early 1990's. Lots of others since. Been in others with assets in North America, south America, Europe and south east Asia a few with African assets too. Most wells to this depth would have been finished long ago, its only about 800m with the reservoir starting at 700m. What is different about Tobias is that it has offshore flow rates for a shallow field onshore. Wells at this depth usually flow at 100-200bopd and would tend to be heavy oil (closer to surface usually means more water and bacterial degradation). Tobias is light oil and under high pressure that is why those 7 production wells peaked at 17,500bopd. That is more typical of a much deeper offshore field.

The reservoir is also carbonate rather than sandstone so marine rather than alluvial, so its behaving more like an offshore field. Also there is a lot of uplift as the Binga is much deeper offshore and at Galinda. All that can add to pressure. So while most wells that I have been invested in at this depth have taken about 3 weeks there's definite differences with how Tobias has performed in the past. Add to that the fact that Sonangol wants Tobias to promote the onshore licence round that is ongoing (Oh look what we achieved at Tobias etc) then that puts added pressure on a good well. A lot of issues with wells comes from human error, the slower you progress the less chance of that. Sonangol from recent disposals and their large production base have an unlimited budget.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

True, all we know is depending on the outcome of the well they plan on drilling one or more wells including possible horizontals. Hopefully get lots more details in the upcoming RNS. We're into week 7 of operations now so bound to be getting close to some sort of conclusion. Yes exciting as it could be the transformation that we've been waiting for. Also success in Angola may allow a scale up of acquisition in Brazil (RBL etc). Depends on timing, but if Tobias is successful they could eventually leverage off those possible reserves.

Regards,

Ed.

As for your second question, there would be regular meetings before and during the drilling, including the payment for long lead items and materials. The work programme would be agreed between the partners and it then is up to them to meet the cash calls. Things will operate to suit the operator therefore mainly at their pace. So if Sonangol decides to do several more wells with this rig it'll be up to the smaller partners to fund their share. Lucky for us Mr Karam has CRCL very well funded including the recent interest free loan from the sale of Mambare. Also the financing that's in place at 0.8p. So all to play for right now and it looks as if CRCL are very well funded at present through to first production.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

I'd like to think so. Its almost been two months since the well spud and we already had hints of what may come from the previous news releases. So probably give details of the results and what's gonna happen next. Some of the articles posted suggested targeting another reservoir, so we need official confirmation if that's an expo well or Galinda for example (although I think Galinda is also Binga formation). Are Sonangol going to keep the rig on site for another well back to back? etc we need to hear more on that once we get TD and results. Horizontals depending on their length could do 2-4 times the vertical flow rates so I'd like to know if they're doing a couple of those before first production. :) But lets not get ahead of ourselves, hopefully get this first test result soon.

Regards,

Ed.

Guys it sure does make for some interesting reading to see all these very large successful oil producers surround us in the PRB. It kinda makes this tiddler look a little out of place, well for now at least. Big reserves here currently, CCU could add multiples to that, lets be having a suitable JV/M&A.

Regards,

Ed.

FWT,

That jut goes to show how oversold some of these little oilers have become. UPL's assets are quite good, but tiny in comparison to COPL's current assets. Hopefully some M&A will occur here too in the next few months.

Regards,

Ed.

Joe,

Most of our market cap is now covered by the sale of Mambare and Wowo Gap. So Angola and Brazil (when it happens) are pure upside now. Angola in the relatively near term could see us to £30-50m market cap on successful development of Tobias and Galinda. Next RNS should hopefully give a good idea of forward plan, fingers crossed, drill programme etc. Once they have established a production base in Angola and Brazil then sky's the limit in terms of upside on our current Angolan blocks.

Regards,

Ed.

TLM,

Spot on, there will be regular meetings between the operator and the NOPs. Once there is info to be released we'll be among the first to know.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

All we have to go on at the moment is the fact that the company has said that the results are due October. They also said depending on the outcome of this initial well that they would drill one or more wells including horizontals. They are still likely to be on the original well as we've not been updated as to any other scenario. I'm sure we'll get a full run down of the details in the next update. Hopefully that will include flow test information and the forward plan. Not much left of October, therefore expectation building that we'll hear soon.

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Nice to see Sonangol take that prize as they're operators of two of our blocks. Good company for CRCL to be partnered with. Beyond Tobias there's lots of upside on these blocks. With Mr Karam's funding package and the sale of the Ni assets we're fully funded for the foreseeable too. Roll on the results of T-13, hopefully early next week.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Nice one, lol I'll have to remember that for the next time I'm tackling the hedges!

Yeah we're still in the middle of the transition of the company from selling the mining and getting the oil and gas assets. The company has made clear that they're looking to consolidate in Angola and acquire in Brazil. As they develop their assets and progress down these routes then our rebranding should be complete.

Yeah its still early days yet for CRCL to complete the rebrand and develop into a fully fledged oil and gas producer. As you say its great that our CEO and his company are our largest shareholder, all aligned for success. We'll just tag along. Hopefully all about to kick off with the results of T-13.

Regards,

Ed.

Yrab,

Yeah its a good deal for sure. It could fund either multiple wells over the next 24 months or the minimum work commitments on all three blocks over that period. An enviable position for many a small cap AIM oiler. Add in the financing that Mr Karam organised at 0.8p recently and we're currently funded to several times our market cap if necessary. He's even talked IBM into giving us $1.6m interest free loan to be repaid on asset sale. So cashed up and currently drilling.

With the major swing from mining to oil and gas this year I still think we're over looked, most people unaware that this is an oil company now. Many of us have been loading up through the quiet spell so no need to price chase at present. As Dicko pointed out most of our assets are not priced in including Angola. The sale of these assets has greatly derisked CRCL, given it a strong funding position ahead of the first Angolan well result. A great place to be compared to where CRCL was 12 months ago. The more wells they drill and assets they acquire the higher their profile and liquidity will become imo. First well should be fairly imminent now, lets see what happens.

Regards,

Ed.

Good mirning Nige,

I sure did was up to my eyes in the Jungle/back garden! Hope you had a good one too!

Good to hear you're all fixed up again chap.

Well the comoany referenced Angola twice for use of proceed and they're well advanced into ops now. 40 days into the drilling of a shallow well. Also mention of initial well suggests more still planned. There will be regular meetings between operator and the NOPs so I take those statements at this stage to be positive. Selling off the mining assets to fund near term operations in Angola, they're still looking forward to the result etc.

There is an option where they can keep shares in the potentially future listed IBM:

Also at completion, a further US$1.4M payable in cash or the issuance of 1.5M shares of IBM at an issue price of USD1 per share at the discretion of Corcel

o 24 months after completion a further payment of US$1.0M either in cash or in IBM shares (at the sole discretion of Corcel); The IBM shares are to be valued as follows:

o If listed, then priced at the 5-day volume weighted average price on the last five days prior to the 2(nd) anniversary or;

o If IBM is not publicly listed then USD1.0 per share

So the deal is $1.6m in cash and the rest is pretty much as an option for shares in IBM or cash. Likewise Wowo gap is $1.4m cash payments and $1.4m profit share on Wowo gap future production. So yes today's mambare deal has the option to take part payment in cash or shares on top of the $1.6m cash element. It'll be up to Mr Karam etc at the time to decide which to take. I'll certainly be voting in favour of these deals at the GM as over the next 24 months it'll fund a lot of activity in Angola.

Regards,

Ed.

Lovely news to wake up to on a Monday morning! Clearly Mr Karam is a great deal maker, he's even gotten an interest free loan from IBM until these deals complete. Also can be a shareholder in IBM if he wishes too. Sounds like this money is going to be put to good use in Angola too. Clear straight focus on oil and gas. These deals are now so big compared to our small cap that we need a GM to approve.

Now that we're almost 40 days into T-13 ops I like these statements:

"More broadly, this agreement demonstrates our clear strategic focus on our oil and gas opportunities as well as providing key near term funding for the Company's operations in Angola. We look forward to results from the initial well there, while allowing the pre-emption process relating to the Mambare exit adequate time to conclude."

"To ensure the Company is properly capitalised for its near term operations in Angola, upon signature of the SPA (i.e. prior to initiating the pre-emption as outlined below and prior to formal completion), IBM will provide Corcel an unsecured loan of US$1.6M which will be interest free and repayable upon either the completion of the sale of Corcel's 41% interest in ONV or in the event that Battery Metal's Australasia's ("BMA")"

I think we're all looking forward to see what we need to be properly capitalized for in Angola, more wells perhaps. Great start to the week!

Regards,

Ed.

Nige hope the teeth are feeling better!

I'm good Nige, hope you are too! We'll jut have to wait and see, it may be a tested well or it just may say TD and xxxft of oil column or pay. It may be with flow test results over one or more choke sizes. it may still to be tested. Hard to guess right now. But what is clear is that its taken a long time for a well this shallow. My guess at the moment is that its down to a cautious ROP, the slower they go the less chance of human error. Yes the longer the rig is there the more expensive the well, but I get the feeling Sonangol gave CRCL a schedule that matched October, probably mid to late October at a guess. Not long after the well was spud that appeared on the CRCL website (results due October). So I believe that its going to plan at the moment.

Before the well spud I was in Dicko's camp, thought it was going to be 10-14 days to drill and about $2-3m gross. There was the article that was posted on here that suggested that it would cost $8m. I then emailed Mr Karam about that. While he didn't give me anything price sensitive he did give me a rough idea. So I'm hoping the next RNS is to say the well is at TD and the details of what they've done so far. I don't believe that its now taking longer than expected, the company said weeks ago that it would be an October result. Each well is different and each well will have a different approach. Once they get this one down and logged they'll know what its like with modern logs, oil saturation, pressure etc. So if they need to do more wells including horizontals they may be quicker from what they learn from this well. Typically in a large field development the more wells they drill the faster and cheaper they become.

Regards,

Ed.