Member Info for Edgein

DC,

There is a weak market at the moment and people took profit, also CRCL has not been well followed since I bought in the 0.2s, some days with just 1-2m traded. So its picking up after getting Angola. The more successful wells they drill the more others will become aware. Its not just CRCL by any means, look at AET today, Angolan government approval for their large acquisitions and its just up 7%. The more success CRCL has the higher the cap will become and gradually more will hold rather than trade. Align selling a block didn't help but hopefully they'll be replaced by other holders. I ended up holding EUA for like 3 years before it went from 0.4p-44p. CRCL too will be about patience while the quick buck merchants come and go.

Nige,

Carbonates won't be evenly fractured, there'll be some of that 120m that's more naturally fractured than others. As the company said the porosity of the wells varied between 4-14%. So there will be zones or intervals within the Binga that are more fractured than others leading to those potentially productive intervals described. Those natural fractures are likely to have given the strongest oil shows to surface. They'll do the geophysical analysis looking for the fractures and areas of highest resistivity and those will be the zones they perforate and flow test.

Regards,

Ed.

Spot on Nige. Yes from the drilling and logging the well they know the entire Binga primary target has oil shows throughout the 120m/393ft, they were also able to tell there were multiple intervals with potentially productive zones within. That was enough for CRCL to label TO-13 as a cornerstone well for the EPS and Sonangol to straight away move the rig to the next drilling location. Absolutely its a very professional operation so far, done exactly what they said they were gonna do.

Yeah the sale of Mambare and wowo gap pretty much covers our current market cap so Angola is pretty much all upside. Given the results of TO-13 and the significant oil remaining mentioned in the RNS looks like that money will be put to very good use in Angola. Won't be a £7m market cap forever and it seems some are taking advantage of that.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

You're welcome. Yeah the move to second well is very telling without the flow test of the first. We know from what the company previously told us, one or more wells were dependent on the outcome of TO-13. The fact that they found a substantial oil column downdip of the previous wells is very telling of itself, this oil wasn't drained or depleted. Also Mr Karam's comments are also very telling about the outcome of this well and its importance from what they've seen to this point. No need to waste time and money keeping the rig in place as its done its job, straight onto one or more wells as previously notified. They can get a workover or completion rig in to test the well once they do the full geophysical analysis.

It still look like profit takers, most of the traders are well within PI range as they're all less than 2m. There was another 5m roll the other day too, again that could easily be PI money. They'll likely all be back again for the results from TO-14. But they may get caught out by some other news in the mean time. Lets see.

Regards,

Ed.

Should be imminent spud, I should proof read some of these messages! :)

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

It should take long for the de-mob and move to the next drill pad. So we'll all have our eyes peeled for next week, I'd expect Sonangol will do another excellent job on the next well too. Be interesting to see what the modern logs show on this next location, will it also be circa 120m oil column.

Would be nice to see a few proactive or investor meets company videos after the drilling for the EPS completes and a new presentation too. Hopefully something that Mr Karam will consider.

Yeah I would imagine that we'll get a further detailed RNS on the results of TO-13 as well as potentially more on the mining assets sales, EGM etc. There's going to be lots going on through to first production. Looking at the presentation again Angolan consolidation and Brazilian acquisitions could come anytime between now and early next year, that'll be top secret until we see the RNS' though.

I would guess that the main thing they are waiting on is the upcoming geophysical results from TO-13. I would imagine that the PR will be in full swing once they've drilled enough wells for the EPS.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I would imagine that the locations have been pre-planned. There were pre-drill studies and also well pads need to be prepared before mobilization. So the pad for TO-14 may have been prepared during TO-13 drilling. I would imagine that they finished ops on TO-13 close to Friday, perhaps finished logging and casing the well last week would be my guess. Sonangol not hanging around with the rig, its straight over to the next well. demob of rig at TO-13 had started on Friday. They said before spudding TO-13 that one or more additional wells including horizontals may be required depending on the results of TO-13 so this outcome was planned for. I reckon Sonangol know exactly how many wells and their placing for EPS. There may also be a phase II of developmental drilling at some point in the future too imo, this is a very large field, getting larger by the well it seems. They'll need multiple horizontals to drain an area that size.

Regards,

Ed.

"rig mob" :)

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Yeah agree, likely lots going on in the background as you say like the acquisitions and plans for the remaining mining assets. As well as all that is going on right now like rib mob just 1.3kms and the interpretation of TO-13 results. Yeah madness right now that we're valued at roughly the sale price of the Ni assets and pretty much nout in for the oil and gas assets. Once we clear these short term sellers common sense should prevail.

Regards,

Ed.

I know you've all been thinking since Friday what the geophysical analysis may contain, here's an example of the types of log data that a company would do on a well like this:

https://data.wgnhs.wisc.edu/hdv/GeophysicalLogInterpretation.pdf

Be interesting to see the results of their analysis of TO-13 over the coming weeks.

Regards,

Ed.

Yeah very experienced and successful guy they have landed today, certainly has some M&A experience under his belt too as well as experience running large production assets. Good stuff.

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

We're priced barely above where these were pre-TO-13 results so who know when it'll pop. What we do know is that they are working on the analysis of TO-13 and TO-14 is due to spud mid-November. So likely news next week.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

Yes very good point. Mr Karam is a one man band at the moment, love the tune he's playing though. Apart from Mr Karam we just have the lady appointed as MD Angola. So yeah there's still more appointments to come to fill out the technical side. Will be interesting to see who joins up as operations progress in Angola. As NOP for most of the current blocks CRCL just have to go with the flow from Sonangol. CRCL do operate KON-16 and may do with some of the new pending acquisitions, perhaps then we'll get a larger team brought in. Mr Karam doing a cracking job so far though.

Regards,

Ed.

DC,

All we can tell at the moment is how much they would get per bbl. That would be priced similar to other West African producers i.e. Bonny light. How much would they make per bbl of production or netback per bbl is virtually impossible to guess at the moment. It all depends on how much the EPS produces, the more bbls per well the lower the costs per bbl. So its almost like how long is a piece of string type guess. Will they use EOR like last time Tobias produced or will it gush from the additional down dip oil column. All of these are likely to be answered over the next few months. Also horizontals would give better netbacks due to increased productivity. Lots for the company to get on with before we try to estimate netback.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Jonny,

Its certainly starting off that way. Start of the year this one had a few stranded mining assets that were potentially going down a jv route. Now hammer and tongs into an oil field redevelopment since Mr Karam too the reigns in March with the reorganization of CRCL. Progress has been relentless since, now with the second well going in and they did say one or more including horizontals in a previous release. Transformation firmly underway now and its got a long way to run from the looks of it. Consolidation of Angolan assets and acquisitions in Brazil still to come, but what a start at TO-13.

Regards,

Ed.

Jonny,

Volume will be interesting next week when TO-14 is due to spud, no flies on this lot that's for sure.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I'll keep that in mind! lol

Yeah there's lots of hints in there as to what they have found with this well. Sonangol straight onto the next well being one of them, they had previously said that would be dependent on the outcome of TO-13. We got our answer when they straight away moved the rig. Cornerstone comment about the EPS and revenue generation also very telling as to what the logs have shown.

Sellers are inevitable as in the last couple of months we were in the 0.2s, even back at the spud we were in that range. So only natural that some will take profits. Others will hold for more wells and acquisitions. Its only the start of a long journey. Tullow for example didn't become mid cap off the back of one well. CRCL already are targeting 16mmbbls net contingent approx from the first two redevelopments (that may get bigger) and have 297mmbbls of net prospective targets. So plenty of room to grow our £8m cap. Still a 3-5 year outlook on these from me. Roll on the news flow.

I agree risky time to sell even some as this one could start to reflect Friday's news at any time.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

That's the plan later this week! More tidying up before Christmas, yes hedge cutting again, part of it is more like hedge sawing! :)

Spot on, welcome to the new Corcel! New cornerstone well for the EPS and the next one about to be spud as you say. This weakness in the share price won't last long. Definitely agreed TO-13 came in much better than expected with lots more news to come. It'll be interesting to read the results of the geological and geophysical testing of the well, likely from the logs, mud cuttings etc. So lots more to come out about TO-13 yet let alone TO-14. But the fact that they're straight into drilling TO-14 without testing TO-13 first tells me all I need to know about how good it is. Also Mr Karam's comments on the EPS and the early revenue generating potential.

I'm hoping that SRSP comes in with a cash bonus this side of Christmas so I can add some more millions to the pot. Gotta keep that Luke fella in my sights!

Exciting times for sure, lots more news flow from Angola and elsewhere to come. Be interesting to see what makes these pop next.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Luke,

No worries re-post wherever you like. That's a nice but very long drive for sure, but at least you had the weekend to recover and take in the stunning news.

Once the significance of the news sinks in this will be much higher, not just over the coming weeks but years. Not many commenting on the fact that the large oil column with shows through out was downdip of the previous producing wells. Oil migrates upwards and in phases with gas above oil, oil above water. No mention of all of any formation water in

Friday's release and this oil column was downdip of the previous oil, meaning likely lots of oil above this point too and the oil would be migrating up the structure. All points to a highly likely increase in oil in place and recoverable numbers. Really looking forward to more updates on TO-13 and the spudding and drilling of TO-14. The market will eventually twig on to what Sonangol/Corcel have encountered.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Yeah definitely, Sonangol already in the process of moving the rig. We were all warned that depending on the outcome of the first well they would drill one or more additional wells perhaps including horizontals. We'll know more mid this month when they spud TO-14. Hopefully see the word horizontal in there, but it may just be another vertical, not long to wait. But everything the company has said has happened to date, with Mr Karam at the helm, with the next well now imminent. We're still pretty much right at the start of the transformation of CRCL with this key announcement. It'll be very interesting to see where we are this time next year. I expect that TO-14 will be vertical, but will then then reenter one or both of these wells to horizontal sidetrack, lets see.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Yeah one of the biggest issues when drilling any well would be human error. Entering the reservoir with the wrong mud balance can end in reservoir damage, loss of mud into the reservoir or the BHA getting stuck. That would have been embarrassing for the state oil company. Initial wells tend to be drilled slowly until the operator gets to grips with what's down there. So its all bells and whistles today that we've made it to TD, no issues, large oil column encountered in the primary reservoir with lots of potentially productive intervals and TO-13 now being called a cornerstone well for the EPS. So awesome stuff. It may take a little while for this to filter through to our £8m ish cap but it will eventually sink in. It would have been approved by Sonangol and now straight onto next well on the field, Sonangol as professional as ever. Imo only a matter of time now to first production.

Regards,

Ed.