Member Info for Edgein

FF,

Take Oilexco as an example. We're not a million miles off their 2P, we're quite a bit off their level of production or their debt. But then when you look at other operators across the PRB and they they've achieved, and in fact what their acreage changes hands for it shows the potential future here. While it doesn't suit a few here to look beyond the bonds that's what's coming. Starting with the BFU commissioning in the very near term. While the current bond deal has undoubtedly brought down the overall multi £ upside its not totally gone though.

Regards,

Ed.

Douggie,

Nice to see your red mist has cleared from earlier, I was getting a little concerned about your blood pressure. Now don't be going into too many assumptions again. I wasn't comparing UKOG to COPL in that previous post, it was just an example of how companies with many more shares in issue can move when sentiment changes. I could also have used EUA or PREM as other examples, both of which multibagged with considerably more than 681m shares in issue. No reference was made to their management styles etc. UKOG and COPL are very different, UKOG got there on hype and interviews, COPL already has the 2P reserves and the elephant in the room too (Frontiers and Dakota).

Don't forget (c) Douggie, their motivation. Perhaps some bond holders have now derisked sufficiently ahead of the BFU upgrade. One thing for sure is that they'll make much more money once the share price is above the principal, perhaps multiples of the principal than they're making now.

Regards,

Ed.

Doug,

Nothing clouded at all. just to clarify for you that I was pointing out that a company with billions of shares at the time multibagged from 0.8p-14p and that COPL has many less shares currently in issue. Hope that clears that up for you. What is very clouded though is speculating on the outcome of the remaining bonds for 2027 and 2028, something that you quite happily do. Even though you don't factor in what may occur between now and 2028. Which is a bit like arguing on the length of a piece of string. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Doug,

You have a strange habbit of living in the future or living in the past. Here is the reality for you from today's announcement:

"Following these issuances of common shares, the Company has a total of 680,828,895 common shares issued and outstanding."

You can accept that or otherwise, most folks have gotten over the previous consolidation. I'm not here to deal with your issues though.

Regards,

Ed.

Douggie,

That looks like a very factual statement to me. Once you wipe the tears away you will realise that 690m is in fact much less than 3.4bn. Why not rehash one of your theories about how many shares there are going to be in issue between now and 2028, that'll make you feel better, I like your speculative efforts.

If you are also insinuating that it was me that reported your post then that's just something else that you are wrong about.

Regards,

Ed.

FF,

Strong buy isn't advice its an opinion, that's what's asked for when you select your opinion with every post. Why is it a strong buy? Well because its assets are worth hundreds $m as they have a field that's already developed hence the $130m approx of infrastructure, $70m+ of injected gas, butane and condensate (at last count about 1 year ago and an NPV10 on our 40.5mmbbls of 2P of close to $500m. A cap of about £13m and we can churn over 72m volume per day so I'm not the only one that has an opinion that its a strong buy. Lets see what happens demand here if the BFU upgrades are successful and we finally get that production incline or JV completes. Likely a new account for you. :)

Regards,

Ed.

JB,

Yes, pretty much. They need two things to stop the bond conversions in their tracks, increasing cashflow from the BFU and a cash payment/near term production as a result of the JV. We're likely to be very close to the increasing cashflow part from BFU, upgrades to be completed imminently. As Art stated target is past peak and an inclining production profile, previous modelled target for 8.5mmcfd injection rate was 5000bopd.

The JV part could happen at any time and we're not giving away some part of an exploration licence, oil has been discovered and produced from the areas in question (Frontiers and Dakota) CCU has 2P reserves. So it will be interesting to see the terms of a possible JV. Negotiations have apparently been going on for almost a year now, so hopefully will reach a conclusion soon.

Regards,

Ed.

Roxi,

Not sure if they'll squeeze in any more promotion between now and completion. Its almost show time with commissioning due this month and then our 9 best wells will be connected and ready to go. The launch pad has already been prepared and the countdown is about to commence. Best thing to do is get strapped in, the last thing we want at this stage is any more chair falling incidents.

Regards,

Ed.

TLM,

The acquisitions they talked about in Brazil were production assets, now we know the target is gas. They'll pay more for 2P than they did for the contingent resources from Angola. But I'm hoping there will be an RBL element to the first Brazilian acquisition and is imo what Mr Karam has been brought in for (and he was willing to come in at this stage as cornerstone investor). So it'll be in his interest too to get the right funding terms.

We have 18-20% of those two redevelopments and about 30% in the expo licence in Angola. If the first well is successful this year development comes next year. I'm hoping in the mean time that they conclude the Brazilian producing asset and therefore cashflow from that would contribute to our share of redevelopment costs. As the first target in Angola is shallow well costs at 18% won't be that prohibitive. But lets wait and see what happens in both Angola and Brazil. If they get drilling underway this Q or next in Angola I would class that as a flying start. Oil and gas will be around for decades to come, Shell boss recently highlighted the dangers of ignoring that.

Regards,

Ed.

Confounded,

Unfortunately I'll not be able to make it on the 19th July, but I'm hoping they video it and put it on youtube. I'd like to hear more about their plans for Angola (even though we did get the recent presentation on their website). Also I'd like to hear what mention Brazil gets and how close we may be to our first acquisition there. We know its likely gas from the recent update. If that comes with production it could be immediately transformative for us. Even if it gets funded through some of Mr Karam's contacts we're likely to see some dilution but as long as its accretive its all that matters. Redevelopment and those large expo targets in Angola give us great upside on our first acquisition so its not a big surprise that money was raised at a premium. I expect those in at 0.4p+ will do quite well from Angola alone.

Regards,

Ed.

New Lunar,

Yes someone(s) have been block buying for sure. But I'm far from convinced that anyone has more than 29.99% required to make a compulsory bid. Sure they could build up through more than one party, but I cannot think of the last time a major or super major went hostile after a tiddler. Yes we have an NPV10 of circa $500m, $120m in infrastructure and around $65m in injectant so we know how bizarre this market value current is. So going hostile its unlikely imo, but a straight down the line cash offer may not be. AM most likely won't want to sell as he'll have a good idea imo that he's on the verge of turning around the BFU and that full development of the Frontier would make him a legend. That to him would be more important than the cash or our current share price.

If you take for example the majors that farm into much smaller companies exploring offshore west or south Africa. They could buy some of those companies for a % of the cost of one well, yet they tend to farm in instead.

Regards,

Ed.

RD,

Yeah its possible. In a previous update they did say that they were ordering in two fire tubes so I had assumed that it would be several heater treaters rather than them built in. But with the Albertan gear its possible. I had assumed that the wax in the wells would be dissolved by the condensate and therefore not really be a problem from the separators to the heater treaters and eventually into the sales line. But if each well has their own heater treater too then even more cautious. The cautious approach at this stage is a big plus as we all want this production increase phase as smooth as possible (well most of us do anyway).

Regards,

Ed.

Pilot,

Yes but I doubt any of the 9 will include those two already connected. These 9 are to be connected to the new pipe from what I gather. Will one of those 9 share a separator closer to the main infrastructure, possibly but speculation. It will be connected to some separator for sure as it has to be to remove the gas, water and emulsion from the oil. But for sure the other eight are going to have their own.

Regards,

Ed.

Fwt,

That seems a bit extreme to have one separator per well. If you search online you'll normally see large separators that have batches or pads of wells all connected to it. But I see the current separator overkill as a very cautious approach, don't want individual wells interfering with others. Some might produce more wax or emulsion than others, also more separators or heater treaters could be useful when some wells need condensate injection or dewaxing and also would make it easier to get to each well in snowy conditions, access to those separators in those little sheds.

Gas injection can be controlled to field wide or specific areas as they have multiple wells converted to injectors, that's the luxury of having so much wellstock already drilled into the BFU. They can shutin or open up as many injection wells as they choose. Inject in one area of the field and not another, inject through all injectors if they choose. As they need more injectors in the future they can drill or convert a few others. I think from previous update there were just 9 further wells planned for full BFU development, so not many compared to the wells already there (34 producers if I'm not mistaken).

So I think its just being very cautious to maintain and grow production and control each well as an individual.

Regards,

Ed.

1509,

There are 9 wells to be tied in and 8 separators ordered. I guess one of the 9 wells is quite close to the main plant and therefore can use an alternative separator. As these are the 9 best producers on the field I'm not surprised each is getting its own separator as these are important wells for our future cash flow. The remaining separators are to be delivered approximately next week and the whole lot to be commissioned this month. After which COPL can increase the injection rate and produce from these wells unrestricted. So the company will look totally different over the coming few months, but it all starts this month. No surprise then since Spreadex and Anavio sold some that the volumes have been going through the roof (50-100m daily volume), there's a lot of boot filling going on since we got this massive discount to the assets.

Regards,

Ed.

TLM,

There are companies with far more in issue than this. Imo this one is more than capable of multibagging on Angola alone, without those placings at 0.35-0.4p they wouldn't have been able to acquire Angolan assets. Now they have the potential to be in production next year, that wasn't going to happen with the mining assets. JP sent SOU from a microcap to a £1bn company, all he has to do is a fraction of that here. So far expo potential, let alone the two field redevelopments, could see us at a substantially higher cap than £3-4m. It won't take much success to improve on that.

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Good to see the company in a position to pay that signature bonus for the three blocks. Also very positive to see those placings at a significant premium to the current share price also complete. With drilling scheduled for this Q or next the action is near term, also be interesting to see what they say in the presentation next week (hopefully they'll post it online afterwards).

Regards,

Ed.

According to the last ops update until the arrival of the last of the separators to get the 9 best producers connected to the upgraded GGS. That is what folks should be focusing on. Commissioning due this month, then onward and upwards.

Regards,

Ed.

We should get another ops update in the next couple of weeks. We had quite a detailed one on the 6th of July which clearly pointed out just how close we are to transformation of the BFU:

"Construction of the BFSU's $4.5 million high-pressure gas gathering system upgrade is on target for completion this month as previously disclosed.

o The high-pressure gas gathering pipeline system has been installed, and tested and is awaiting the following:

Ø Delivery of the first three of eight high-working pressure wellsite/production separation facilities required for the upgrade is anticipated by week's end, with the balance of the units being delivered over the following two weeks. Six of these units were fabricated in Alberta to specifications for winter operations common in Alberta, Canada which should mitigate the issues experienced at the BFSU during the winter of 2023.

Ø Upon installation of the wellsite/production separation facilities, the system will be commissioned."

So we're all on schedule for commissioning this month with the last of the separators to arrive by around 20th of July or just two weeks now. Then with the 9 best producers connected we should see that production incline for the rest of the year and beyond as the gas injection rates finally reach their max. As the company stated further wells and pipes can be added incrementally as needed. We might also get a game changing JV at any point too.

As Stas stated this morning, we're trading at just over half the price we paid for Cuda, which in turn was only half the size of the Atomic acquisition. Both of these acquisitions were made at rock bottom prices, so when the cork comes off this bottle its hard to imagine how high it will go.

Regards,

Ed.

Shaaa,

Yeah the smaller bondholders are almost down to about 10% of the remaining bonds. Hopefully some of them will be sticky. I'm sure some of those bond holders would prefer the share price to be above 6.75p when they convert. We know that Anavio got over £1m in from the conversion and sale of 18 bonds or $3.6m principal. I'm sure they'd prefer to be converting at 6.75p when the share price is 10p+ or 20p+.

Possibly, now Anavio have 27% exposure through the bonds. There may be some justification to your reasoning. I too prefer that more of the shares are in the public hands rather than give too much power to one holder. We'll see in due course if Anavio do become a cornerstone shareholder, time will tell. Lets see if they can be convinced by the GGS upgrades and possible JV. :)

Regards,

Ed.