RI thoughts22 Nov 2017 00:04
So, time for a few thoughts on the RI. In the sense of 'do I have the appetite for one last throw of the dice here, with money I don't have?'
Cons:
We will probably have to take the plunge before planning is confirmed (though possible we might get the officers' recommendation before the deadline)
The risk of planning not going through is not 0%
It's quite likely NLR will end up up with majority ownership after the RI, which given his history of taking IG private gives pause for a moment's thought.
The risk of the project not getting financed is definitely not 0%.
Pros:
Even given the outstanding risks, 25p is pretty good value and potentially a last chance to average down substantially for those of us who started this journey at over 500p (in new money).
A £2.65m commitment from NLR is not to be sniffed at. Obviously he's going to end up being in for less than that, but other funders who are looking to see who's got skin in the game will see that as significant - it's a big vote of confidence.
I've only clapped eyes on NLR once, at the August 2016 gold pour. He struck me as the opposite of someone who makes reckless, emotionally-driven decisions. More a case of 1s and 0s scrolling away behind the eyes if you ask me.
The £2.65m makes a substantial dent in the remaining funding gap, and therefore the future dilution from here, especially if the company is able to secure meaningful debt and vendor finance elements in the mix.
If planning goes through, with the £2.65m in the bag to get cracking immediately there should be a decent SP rise post RI even without the remaining finance (which will reduce dilution from future equity funding element).
The huge investment some of the big players - Blackrock et al - have made in Dalradian sets a great precedent and IMO is bullish for our chances of getting finance.
Options exercisable at 40p is a nice little carrot, though I'm still smarting from the damp squib of the last lot.
Possible French/Portuguese news re JV/farm-in.
RI means immediate start to Cononish development work, no further delays.
So, on balance I'm feeling like I'll probably try to take up my full allocation. The potential rewards are too great to pass up, even if the risks remain unignorable. Good old Scotgold. Still a punt after all these years.
GLA
Eck