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Short Seller Observation 1: Convertible Loan Note Dilution
There is going to be huge dilution from the £1.4m Convertible Loan Note due in April 2022.
That is at approximately 1p level so 140m additional Shares
Actual Reality Observation 1:
Angus Energy have managed to defer the maturity date by a full year and now final payment due in April 2023! Yes there has been 11.2m issued for nil value diluting existing shareholders by approximately 1.15% but they have also pushed convertible date of any amount by Loan Note Holders forward by 6 months to July 2022. The Short Sellers can argue that it’s a bad thing that they have done this but actually a welcome relief because if Angus Energy are able to pay off any chunk before the final payment date then Knowe Properties can have 1 warrant exercisable at 1.30p (a decent chunk above 0.80p level). Warrants are good for Angus Energy because they are cash directly into the hands of the company and not Market Brokers et al who get a fee for placings!
Short Seller Observation 2: Angus Energy will never make First Gas before July 2022
Actual Reality Observation 2: An INDEPENDENT Competency Persons Report has highlighted the potential First Gas date of mid-March 2022. Given that any project may have issues, I would say that the First Gas date could indeed be post March but that gives them 4 months including March 2022 to address technical issues/complexities. This is an open call for all and I am not with Shorters on this target being missed.
Short Seller Observation 3: Angus Energy will need a placing before First Gas
Actual Reality Observation 3:
The Placing question can only be answered by the real Angus Energy schedule for commissioning and First Gas. Until they know the precise plan which they continue to fail to address (Mid Nov 21) then this is an unknown. Even if they do conduct a placing to pay their fat salaries I would hope it isn’t a large one because when the Gas flows there is anticipated to be decent cash flow that could more than cover liabilities.

Short Seller Observation 4: Angus Energy will need £4.4m for payment to £12m Lenders in July 22
Actual Reality Observation 4:
I think it is fair to say based on a number of communications from the company the debt is likely to be shared somewhat by both Parties (Saltfleeby Energy Limited). This worry bead completely writes off the possibility that Angus Energy would be able to produce pre-Hedge (fixed gas price levels a lot lower than spot prices). If they can get decent Gas flows 4mmmcfd+ pre July 2022 when the hedge kicks in, that would help them considerably generate cash between the two parties. This is also writes off any possibility warrant holders would choose to exercise their rights for 165m shares at 1.36p average

Short Sellers Observation 5: Angus Energy will always need placings to fund their General and Administration Costs particularly with First Gas being late

Relax you shorters

ress2003
Price: 0.875
No Opinion
RE: Another Tweet and Another Element of the Project Being ProgressedToday 22:44
Also I wouldnâ€™t be surprised if angs actually go down the route of anaerobic digesters!!, as itâ€™s going to be very simple for them to do that if they got planning and EA approved,, as they would have all the infrastructure in place for the gas, itâ€™s a easy 10k a day for them plus a CHP too, and itâ€™s green energy too
ress2003
Price: 0.875
No Opinion
RE: Another Tweet and Another Element of the Project Being ProgressedToday 22:38
Like I said mid January is when your will know if there in front or behind, depends on contractors and
Suppliers
ress2003
Price: 0.875
No Opinion
RE: Another Tweet and Another Element of the Project Being ProgressedToday 22:37
The side track would be in a different location to where the gas line is, and then added to the main gas line to the Compressor
WG818
Price: 0.875
No Opinion
RE: Another Tweet and Another Element of the Project Being ProgressedToday 22:36
Thanks for the reply. So possible by Xmas then.
Itâ€™s going to be interesting watching the Twitter updates!
ress2003
Price: 0.875
No Opinion
RE: Another Tweet and Another Element of the Project Being ProgressedToday 22:35
Sorry I will answer , in my option I canâ€™t see the side track happening till they go gas to grid, as in my opinion they will wonâ€™t to prove the concept of what they have first and that itâ€™s all working as it should be without adding a side track into to this, but in all honestly they could to as it wonâ€™t effect the gas flow neither, it depends on how confident they are, see gas will flow through none return valves so there wonâ€™t be issues with a side track, itâ€™s more about seeing how everything works once flowing,
ress2003
Price: 0.875
No Opinion
RE: Another Tweet and Another Element of the Project Being ProgressedToday 22:30
Hiya,,
Well the pipe work can come in 3mrts lengths and use a thing called sanpress, but most likely normal pipe work, flanges, welds etc, and pressure test,, the foundations donâ€™t take that long itâ€™s just a concrete bed, a bit of strutting etc and rebar, and frames, for the pipe work, nothing major at all, there will be say a few gas monitors analyses, and flow meters, so some minor electrical works, or 4 to 10 signals, or 24 volts maybe 240 volts depends on dpec really, but without reading there functional design specification I donâ€™t know what they have spec, so hard to say, but itâ€™s all relatively the same, but my guess would be about two weeks for concrete and two weeks for pipe work,, then test with nitrogen for pressure testing etc,,it comes down to the grid pressure tho too , and what they can go too, so pipe size for optimum gas flow and CV value too, CH4 tends to be around 95 per cent plus so a little too up and jobs a gooden etc,

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