Member Info for Dulwichman

By chance I caught a part of a debate this week in Westminster on the proposed new gas pipeline to supply Europe ( Some may remember Mr Trump mentioned this during his visit stating his concern on Europe having to rely on Russian gas) I was not able to catch all of the debate,however I did manage to catch some of the issues and it highlighted to me of just how much our potential gas is of both International importance and also just how political it is.A key point seems to be 2020 when the major contracts to supply Europe come up for renewal. Some Countries are concerned that they will loose billions of euros over the period of any new contracts over the contact lifetime and if our gas becomes commercial and is connected to the nearby gas connector (which we have been told we can) then Europe as a whole can save billions and reduce the cost of gas to consumers - It was particularly mentioned the benfit to Germany due to atomic power coming off line and the need to reduce it's use of coal.

I can not help but think the the pressure on all Companies that can get the gas out of the ground in Georgia is on big time. At the end of the day this has to good for us but quite how this pressure directly affects us us is not clear to me but it it is certainly there given the 2020 renegotiation is not that far away on such issues.

I will try to watch the whole debate on catch up later and report back if I can gleen any further useful information .

At least somebody is positive!

Th PM was giving an update on the Nato conference. The Ukraine and Georgia were mentioned as being of importance along with extensive UK support.

Further to a previous poster highlight the Atlantic council (Sorry I forgot who but thanks) I have noticed that the uk FCO is a top flight member as well as the UK MOD (next level down)

Given the Position of Gerogia in the Wests , EU ,and Nato as discussed ad nausium at times by Mr Mole, my self and a few others. The above memberships open up a couple of possibilities ie the ability to get answeres via our MP's or indeed FOI's re UK assessments and views of the Uk Govt etc even down to independent (?) views on investment grading as a Country The list goes on as it is what our Commercial attache is for.

Just drop a line to your MP and ask away but do not mention the Company talk about subjects and Country. It will a a good diversion for an MP away from Brexit and they do the work for you.

I might even contact the FCO directly to see what briefings they do on the Political stability and nearby influences they view as important

A good contribution for those who are not plugged into the importance of Georgia. As Far as it affects us with Trumps comments lets see what the fall out is as he does not dictate foreign policy- However it may just spur congress to go further than it already has. We will have to wait and see given it came from Trumps mouth!

Trump say we will be in competition with Russia on gas. Too early to interpret. I found it odd that US Imported LPG to Boston. and the US is a net gas exporter. I suppose it is what is available on the Market however this does put Georgian gas in the spotlight

Zyder

My own view and of course you are entitled to yours is slightly different. You use the words "Majors are reluctant...." I think I would use the words " Majors are willing to invest but choosing there own time"
My reasoning is that just about all majors are still going through major changes getting rid of less efficient/profitable units - opening up new sources and also diversifying ( bp for instance just buying a vehicle charging company)"
The majors have one thing in common with most European governments in that getting to a final decision takes for ever and even then once a decision is made they wait for the most opportune moment both in their fiscal cycle ( For instance they publicly state how much capitol expenditure they will spend in a year and that is what the market expect them to keep to) and any external factors.
To add to this SOME have suggested and they know better than me that if what we believe is true as to the total size of our assets then this is too big for a single major to go it alone so perhaps outside partnerships need to put in place before any move takes place. This all MAY all be going on in the background for all I know.
Not being crititcle to your view for in truth nobody knows on this board

Mr Mole
Not sure that you will agree with this so I would welcome you view.
At present quite a lot of status quo in east west stability is in flux at present. Europe as whole has it's own internal turmoil to try to sort out not just brexit but the EU is struggling to modernize as some of its basic understandings are no longer fit for purpose which has lead to populism coming to the fore. resulting in the normal ideas as Europe being a buffer zone between the US and Russia and ending basically at the German boarders is no longer the case ( hence the push for Nato members to pay there way)
In the mean time whilst the Nato members/Europe attempts to sort it self out areas like Georgia have become the play thing and new buffer area of the Us and Russia and whilst the Georgian Government is leaning towards the West and is being encouraged to do so it is not quite sure.
Georgia itself is going through a period of rapid change both economically but politically. It is desperate for investment and it knows it has assets that the two/three big power blocks ( if you add in China) want/need ie cheap energy but which way does it want to finally turn?
If I have got the above correct the source of any investment West/China/Russia will set the course of which way Georgia faces for many a year to come may well be the reason for the delays that Companies like us have to put up with on final decision making. Personally I view this as positive but frustrating but as Block Energy and others are now in the game as well so the cards are finally settling both for Georgia first and us second as long as Georgia feels safe ( hence the recent bru ha-ha from trump to boost Nato Spending and reduce reliance on Russian gas AND hurry up and get on with it)

As a side issue I think that SN is so well plugged into all of these type of issues that a diplomatic delay in results etc has been timed to fit in with Trumps visit to the Nato/ UK and Putin. Certainly the big boys do this sort of thing and SN's background is with the big boys

High Bladey
yes Zaza, SN and even Dustin have there hard earned invested. As to filling oil cans in the local market I don't care if they do as long as we get our % and get paid in cash. Just as a side issue they seem to be filling some quite big oilcans attached to Railway wagons as well. With a bit of luck that will work out as tax free as well but can not see that lasting long!

leo
All anybody can actually do is buy, hold , sell. everything else is down to your personal timing"

More along the lines of the fact that many in the US Golf as a private business meeting. Many members of the elected members of the US play golf. If SN or zaza play golf to then you get my drift. Certainly Trump plays golf and often with his republican friends. Sometimes it is a way of getting a message through more than a formal meeting. Perhaps a friendly person here can get a message through on the support we need via the famous contact of 7 people?

Johnny- I will visit and message will try to coincide with music rather than wrestling. Good luck with the event and others please support if you can. Johnny is a top man and ex services

Anybody know if Zaza or SN play Golf?

Thank for your compliment. I can assure you there are far more knowledgeable on this web site than I.

Be very careful when looking at anything re Mckenzie Everything may not be as seen when lokking at them and there representation in public. eg My god son published a book on education in Afganistan whilst at mckenzie. All very legitimate and above board it is what he was paid for- He was doing something completely different I knew his flight schedule and it matched major events of interests to Governments in what I will call "an advisory" role and was nothing to do with education. Now working in the middle east for a company set up him but paid for Mckenzie and of course fully arms length from everbody

Chris
I agree. Very interesting that he is ex Mckinsey - You never leave Mckensy ( I have friends who are now ex ) Mckensey have a very close relationship with parts of the US and UK government. They are more than they seem!

5p Many thanks for posting this.
For those who were asking about the importance/influence of the geo politics to us. this is a very good example of geo politics in action. As such this is not a direct effect on us on a day to day basis but still important if our gas can enter the energy security plans.

The important factors are as follows in my opinion
1) Trumps statement WILL result in further discussion within NATO in terms of what influence NATO can bring to bear on other bodies The EU comes to mind directly and indirectly each individual government who this may affect both on the supply and the production side.
2 Trump is essentially a business man and he wants USA PLC to make money. again behind the scenes this is more than a strong hint to US Companies to invest overseas in an attempt to help the USA balance of payments and also to pay more tax through profit.

Given that we have already seen the subjects of help to the Georgian Government from the EU and the US and the Georgian Governments views about joining NATO or at least coming under the NATO extended umbrella This is a reinforcement of what we already know but will place more pressure to move this along which at some point can only be of real benefit to us as long as the gas comes out of the ground at commercial rates. We owe a dept of gratitude to SN for both his past and I suspect present work for the results are I believe a good fit with the proposed plan of the Company. I fully expect that if all goes well with gas that AN American big boy company will be encouraged to look a JV or something with us as this will suit Trump, NATO. and the EU in more ways than one.
All in my opinion but I hope this explains to those who asked yesterday. It will not happen over night but this is very much on the agenda. Good news in my view.

From a purely personal point of view I only wish Mrs May would make such bold statement on behalf of the UK we still do too much behind closed doors which nay get the same results but allows too much time lag.

The importance of the Geo -politics is largely reacted to the size of the asset and production which may be available.
According to the WH Ireland report which does not cover the whole of our asset. At present the geo stuff is not that important so perhaps the words used should only "a consideration for the Company as well as more important issues. So the only real environment which is important is the home nation and if they fell confident at this moment in time.
However if the asset is a big and as recoverable as we all believe this is just as much a game changer in geo political terms as it is for PI value.There is I believe just as much belief in our asset as we have in Dustin in getting out of the ground, So just as one of Dustins drillers may drop a spanner down the hole so things happen in Geo politics. I personally believe the issue in NATO. Trump rightly or wrongly wants NATO members to pay their way. IF I were the Georgian Gov would I want a valuable asset IN PLAY that it could not protect. I would guess not as it will just cause problems.
Those who follow such things in depth I believe are in contact with both the Company via SN and the Georgian Gov. Is it odd that our own expectations of a stonking RNS and the NATO conference are about the same date? Well that is anybodies guess
Until the RNS is out I would suggest the Company just focus on the asset but if it is as good as we expect they will have to do what any other Company has to do which is to seek advice in new areas over expansion or sell on to those who have that wisdom.
Could this be some of the reasons for delay. I would think it is. SN is not a fool and he is well plugged in and well advised and we are better off than say Block energy.

Over all it is the main reason for my patients as just with the spanner down the hole scenario the Geoplotics normally get resolved it is just that fewer people understand the geo stuff and more under stand the spanner.

There has been too much political investment for this asset to be let go to others as long as Dustin has done his job well on what we all believe is there.

All in my own opinion of course and I share the frustration. Fixing a spanner issue is less time consuming than the political stuff made worse by the fact there are lots of agenda's about with lots of Countries

Hope this helps- hope I am right!

20 odd mill bucks is not going to make that much difference but at least we know that it is on its way with a defined date. It all helps

Tim
Not so sure I would agree with you over full flow rates. Please correct me if I am wrong but didn't Zaza say he would PREFER to release results all together? He does have leeway on this but given that if possible his preferred option was to go it alone on the oil and be self funding just may not be possible. If he did want loans etc to develop a different plan would it not be easier to achieve if the whole lot was lumped into one? Pure guesswork on my behalf but the best laid plans of men etc

Ivy
You are quite correct over the issue on NDA's being raised and in effect a shut down on conversation via the NOMAD as I would also expect. However many who have known Zaza better than I commented that his eyes lite up and had a wry smile on his face before the subject was closed down. This was interpreted by many both after the meeting and on this board as being both very positive and with a big player. As with all things at present we simply do not know what the present state of play is regarding this.

I don't think any individual part of the Wests involvement is an absolute key- much more is the combination of what the west is doing, Obviously what the USA does has perhaps greater importance but I am certain that the EU ( which I am not a great lover of) role is not insignificant. I would not be at all surprised if they are not working in tandem behind the scenes just not in public.