Member Info for Dulwichman

Well done timster.
You have picked up all the key points immediately. ( As I would expect) For others it just shows how the big boys work - it is not overnight but when they come what they can bring is staggering. In simple terms it is investment cost V outcomes in profit. The old Russian wells simply did not have the techie stuff we have to day. If the sums add up in the big boys minds then money really is no object and they are prepaid to wait for a return. BUT all the boxes need to be ticked

This is a cut and paste from BP. Some of us are old enough to remember the Fortes field in the North sea. This is latest field ( Clair) to just come on stream. Reason for posting - Just how long it can take from discoverer to production and how the new teckie stuff makes a difference note this will provide 10% of UK requirement and the taps are now open. Has our time now come?

The Clair Ridge platform is now producing oil from the giant Clair field – a massive oil reservoir discovered in 1977.

Geologist Bill Senior, who was part of the original discovery team, remembers those early days west of Shetland. Twenty-two years old and despatched from London to Aberdeen with the ink barely dry on his geology degree, Senior was in charge of instructing drillers where to target oil.

“My first well, the first we drilled west of Shetland, ended up being the 206/81-A discovery, what we know now as Clair,” he says.

Senior sent a Telex straight to the onshore team to say that they had struck oil. It looked like a big find. But, the team’s hopes of another North Sea success story like the Forties field discovery were quickly tempered when further inspection of the rock revealed a technically complex reservoir that far surpassed the industry’s technological ability at the time. The discovery was big – huge, in fact – but entirely uneconomic to develop. Senior wrote again to the onshore team, saying: “Little hope of THIS rock ever producing oil.”

If this does go blue it will be the first time ever that my whole portfolio is blue!

If I may add to Mr Moles succinct comment. - The O& Gas exploration industry is complex. A key factor in what may seem a simple thing to do if there is O&G in the ground and get it to market is "Problem Solving" Those who been around for a long time will have seen Companies come and go is because they are not good at problem solving. It may be taking time but we are good at it. If anything very good at it - many Boards and senor management teams would have fallen a long time ago given what we have been through and come out the other side.
It is easy to forget just where we actually are. On the cusp of being a very successful Company. I have no doubt that there will still be problems to overcome in the future but are track record to overcome them is very good if not a bit scary for some PI's

No loss. I am happy to be corrected as my memory is not what it was- been here a long time- But I seem to remember that Hope as a Director was part of the arrangements in the " rescue plan" . someone please correct If I am wrong

Blown
Thanks for your commentary . Many on here would support your view that the Company will be American which I would tend to agree with, However in conversation with a senior BP employee recently and I quote " we tend to view us ( BP) as an American Company now" So I keep an open mind. At the end of the day I do not care that much which Company it is as long as it has plenty of dosh

Hi Blown
I would accept that this is a succinct piece which over a period of time I and many others have put forward at various times. It does show that from a geo political point of view does just show how much the USA sees the area of great importance and is putting their money where their mouth is. This does rather suggest that they that they have assessed the risk and have taken a view that they will continue to keep more than a watching brief and will interfere to make sure that there is stability in the region. I can not but think that by these policy decisions that access to the O&G and with the accompanying infrastructure can only strengthen the US reach on the world stage and keep these countries facing to the west buy supporting any inward investment. On top of this The US would certainly prefer to have US Companies leading the charge in soft force projection. This is is aligned with the views of the Europeans with there recent infrastructure monies.
As long as the O&G can be got out the ground and be commercial this all bodes well for us and will certainly help focus the minds of the majors

This could easily be 2+2=5 but it would have certainly have been and will still be a diversion for the senior mgt of BH for a while and may help explain some delays to add to this somebody will be buying the GE stake

Given that the super majors are in buying mode. I would not be at surprised if one of them took the GE stake. Could even be BP so in by the back door?

Totally agree Mr Mole especially about share take off on speculation especially in the O&G industry as hard tangible news on assets will at some point become available even if it is behind a Chinese wall for a period. Agree on the fact that oil is declining but it does seem that opec/ Russians may well decrease production to stablise/raise the price in the near future. From what I can gather we are close ( ie months) to production issues coming into play again. I would also put forward that gas demand will be ever increasing and that wholesale gas will go up on the world market. We are very well placed at present and the ducks seem to be lining up in more ways than one. I dislike the word patients in our case as it has been over used BUT it does have to be recognised that process takes time. We do know that matters are progressing with one large organisation and if this is in the hands of our legal friends it takes a lot of time as line by line process will be going on. I understand the frustration of many but it is what it is. Nobody should complain at the amount of information provided by the Company and as far as I can see it is positive if not definitive YET. With regard to the second major - if it is as we hope a well known name ie a super. then I can not emphasise enough the amount of due diligence they will be going through before any announcement and it could be a Yes or No. That is the risk we all carry

This is part of a concerted campaign in my view. Georgia is of geo political importance and their is a bit of a battle for influence in both the political and economic area. The weapons do include fake news. Much has been made of the Russian use of this but do not count out China in this. Recent reports have indicated that China's activities in Africa have got to a point where it is of concern to the west and China has changed from being a very inward looking Country with very closed borders to an expansionist nation and a willingness to trade. The tools of the trade are soft so do not think that such things as invasion or what ever are on the cards. both Russia and China just are not in any position to even think about such things. But there is a battle taking place which the west is winning so far and I expect the west to maintain that position.

The answer is really a bit of Yes and No but it all depends on what sort of a deal takes place. For Instance Alan Duncan was in Georgia last week. He was not there on Holiday!. This visit will have been planed some time ago but the purpose will have been to drum up business for UK PLC ( a part of the remit of our foreign diplomats re-introduced by Hague) which could include Trade agreements after Brexit. It may well also be that the Georgian Gov want access to our Aid budget. It would certainly fit as Georgia has become a key player in Geo Politics. On paper at least after Brexit we will have less restraints on where and what the UK does both diplomatically and with our financial support. Add in the elections in Georgia and it makes a lot of sense. Please this is not a Brexit debating chamber.
As a side issue he does understand the O&G industry having carved a worked in that area.
So not a direct effect at present but I suspect a very indirect effect which could be positive. Over to you Mrs May!

After graduating from Oxford, Duncan worked as a trader of oil and refined products, first with Royal Dutch Shell (1979–81) and then for Marc Rich from 1982 to 1988 (Rich became a fugitive from justice in 1983). He worked for Rich in London and Singapore.[14] Duncan used the connections he had built up to be self-employed from 1988 to 1992, acting as a consultant and adviser to foreign governments on oil supplies, shipping and refining.[9]

In 1989, Duncan set up the independent Harcourt Consultants, which advises on oil and gas matters. He made over £1 million after helping fill the need to supply oil to Pakistan after supplies from Kuwait had been disrupted in the Gulf War.[10]

http://nenosplace.forumotion.com/t189147-russia-and-saudi-arabia-are-considering-cutting-oil-production-in-2019

There was no real indication for the second major. I would think that zaza has enough to do with just the BH deal and running the company. there is day to day business to do which is easy to forget.

Jippy
Not challenging your calculations bit not sure about the capital figure. I don't think anybody knows what we could be worth. too many unknowns as yet -- could be a lot more (or less but I doubt it) Zaza always did say that he was open to sensible offers but I do not think that is what he wants to happen. He does sen keen on developing the oil but the gas could be sold

Can not nor would want any sort of dividend until we consolidate and Zaza has said that on broker advice the SP will have to be over 2p. The march forward and upward looks like it is firmley on but we are not out the woods yet. I would like to see not only the balance sheet cleaned up a lot more but get rid of our "friends" such as YA gone for ever and as soon as possible. To add to this I would want the Board of directors strengthened a bit for if things go as we think they will go then the work load will be huge as in looking after Gegroia and take on Moldova and I might say from a positing of strength. Looking good though

I am more worried about Alice who the XXXX is Alice?

I can not find anything negative to day to wind me up.- HELP. need an excuse for a dram this is a bad day for me so don't wind me up all you happy people

Are we looking at suspension?

Kempey
Your reference to "it being as big nearly as Russia's biggest field" needs to put in some sort of context. At the last meeting zaza was being questioned about CPR updates etc He was NOT able to give a specific answer ( remember the NOMAD was watching every word) He was looking very hard at the Nomad and bounced the question back to the audience "with where is the biggest field you can think of" not the exact words but near enough. eventually "he said think of Russia" looking at the Nomad again near enough. So was this zaza the salesman or was this zaza being as helpful as he could. My own view for what it is worth is that he was being helpful but under restriction of what he would have like to have said. Hope this helps as it is a bit of apian to go through all of the voice recording so helpfully provided.