Member Info for Dulwichman

Rainbow. I would tend to agree with you that we could well be less than pawns in the grand scheme of things Mr Mole is quite correct and in my view we as share holders do deserve something concrete. The simple facts are that what ever else is going on we are still a Company with share holders in legal terms and one way or another still have to function correctly other wise it could become an Achilles heel for those who wish to attack/destroy us. Such things as AGMs etc however still do have to take place even if just a nod and a wink meeting.

Just to add a little of the most recent utterance from Mr Mole. It should not be forgotten that in the past we add NOMAD to somewhat restrain any comments of a Company Director and perhaps even more a CEO. We all know that Zaza went as close to the limit during this period but he should not be blamed in this area as it is rather in the job description to promote the Company.

We have a situation from de listing onwards where no such constraint exists for a considerable period of time , much of which had no commentary at all- personalty given what we have found out this may well again be a reasonable approach for multitude of reasons and I suspect we have only found out part of the story , and yes I share the frustration during this period of lack of contact with us as not only shareholders but in general very loyal shareholders.

As things have moved on to the recent weeks , we know have almost daily interviews etc taking place all of which have elements of positivity but coming from where and for what reason? . My own view is that Most of what is taking polace is completely Political ( and high politics at that)and there in lies the dangers of interpretation. Firstly there are no constraints coming from a Nomad or any other independent body, Secondly it is a completely different way to use language and as we all know the art of Politics is the art of the POSSIBLE rather than the factually based art of probable (but still may not happen - "circumstances dear boy circumstances" .
It does seem clear to me that Zaza still has the gift of the gab in terms of promoting the Company ( I would say perhaps too well from a Company Director point of view) but it is the game of politics he is playing where exaggeration is the norm. I can only hope he is being advised well.
At the end of the day the only real fact we have is that (and against all odds in my view) the Company is still alive, we can only only guess why but I will put it down to friends in high places. I am not convinced this will win the day on its own but it certainly helps and I am looking forward to the day when Zaza and his business colleagues can concentrate on making business deals and a degree of normality comes back into play and can leave the Politics to the big boys.

Wishful thinking you may say - well we have got this far when many would have given up.

Whilst it looks like most of his direct oil and gas knowledge and experience is based upon South America, It is his experience in International affairs within the Industry which may be coming into play from an American point of view. I am not convinced that his experience of Buy outs is great but his time with Riverstone Carlyle group as it was would certainly have a big contact base. TOO hot to write anything further but a useful reminder of some of the power hopefully behind us

Thanks EkXoc there two things that keep bugging me 1) why are we still alive - it really is a most unusual state of affairs most but the big boys would have chucked in the towel a long time ago. 2) I am certainly not the expert here but many on here are - as Mr Mole points out - the O and G is still not guaranteed in full commercial quantities and from what I can gather is quite leading edge tech stuff which is risky there are easier sources in the world and at low cost still. Yet somehow we just keep going on and still fighting without any commercial income.

Could it be that it is not really the O and G that is really important although if it all works a real bonus in more ways than one and for many different interests it is the ability JUST to influence the region ie government level stuff.
If true AND we are still alive than that's good enough for me and should be for the majority of us all and we will probably never know the ins and outs of a ducks arXX of how or even why it happens . One thing for sure it is all above our heads with the lack of information and people seem to be interested in every little detail and its possible nuances (understandably so) but is probably of little importance

Whist I accept the use of the American connections and of course the interests of Uncle Sam which can only be helpful as I see things with the validity of the up and and coming elections etc. It is perhaps easy to forget that a key Element is the EU's stated position ( and relevant policies) on Energy dependency on Putins Russian Bear. The EU has more than one stated interest which is more than just energy dependency that being not only the modernisation of the Democratic process ( ie the hidden influences of The Russian Bear) but also fair and uncorrupted elections. From the EU web site it seems that they have given the Georgian Government (E 100 million - figure may be wrong as it is hard to get to the exact point on the EU web site) and they also have people on the ground working as part of the EU's diplomatic mission (?). It would seem that it would be reasonable to expect the EU to have at least something to say on the validity of the up and coming elections and also on how or what they are doing to move the reliance on hydro carbon energy supplies from the Russian Bear? I of course accept the EU has no direct interest in FRR but the bigger picture stuff does affect us if we can sort other matters out.

Being resident in the UK I no longer have access to an MEP at least to ask just what is the EU doing as it may have relevance to how the Georgian Gov behave especially as there is money involved from EU member states.
Is there anybody on here who has access to an MEP to ask the relevant questions? who knows what it may bring up.

As I say "just a thought" as I can not find anything on the web regarding the EU actions as other than the covid stuff, Energy dependency/ security seems to be quite high up on their agenda

just sitting, watching and waiting for what ever will be.

EKZoc the key to all these groups is not what the rank and file think . it is the core who are normally very extreme and are the driving force. The methods are very well known and in simple terms goes along the lines of find a resin that will have a reasonable amount of support and has a likelihood of getting some change but not enough so you can still justify your existence and increase your financial backing. Once this has been achieved the core who are extreme and now hove both power and money then release the extreme views as you can say a moderate view has not worked. A quick look at history would suggest that this is taking place at present. Any group with an extremist at the core even if they gain power it is normally put back in their boxes if a silent majority majority exists and there is some form of democracy. As I think Enoch Powell or was it Churchill once said "All political lives end in failure"

Hi Mr Mole agree pretty much with you comment and hold onto the fact that we are still alive. My one comment and it is not a diss agreement is that for the first time in ages I have seen a gimmer of hope in oil prices. Last week the head oil anaylist of Morgan Stanley in the USA side of things and note widely reported here in the UK ( a tip from a mate in the city) was a prediction of oil being at $100 a barrel by 2022. I am the first to say a single swallow does not make a summer - add in the fact "How often do analysts get it right" , How ever with big oil cutting back exploration etc and all the other factors required for big oil to make a profit etc and of course the oil cycle there may be an element of truth in this but in my view not at the price he says but if we say 60 a barrel and this is of course new oil but infra structure around it it just may make us look quite attractive still . I know thsi is not the gas we are all hoping for but it all helps. - any views. all I ca n say is that we are cheap at the price out of the ground which may be worth something even just to keep us alive.

(cont) in fact it is predicted to grow in consumption over the next few years. If all we have been told by Zaza and backed up to some degree by others. It just may put some perspective on matters and all this legal stuff (good or bad) is a very useful time user perhaps to hit the oil cycle of demand out of the ground and our low price here is more than useful and no wonder others want the asset. As long as we can keep hold of it even in a reduced area then we are laughing.

Look out for the Bull heard in analysts over the price of all in a few years whilst I may take no notice of of them myself somebody does and money will be cheap for a go it alone Company for as we know many other aspects of the physical side of oil production is ether in place or easy to achieve. It may just explain why the Company fights all the time -to hit the best part of the oil cycle.
Just a muse I know and trying to be positive but the oil cycle is real and based upon one pubic report is not much, but it may explain something.
Good luck all and to the Company we are after all still alive JUST.

Whilst everybody including me in concentration on the immediate survivability of the Company and then hopefully some form of financial arrangements by any reasonable means to at least get our hard earned back and possibly more. There is one question that keeps coming up to me. Why is this fight still taking place when many others would have given up the ghost? Just as part of a possible reson may have just surfaced based upon SN's lifelong experience of the Oil sector (remember hi old man was in the business as well)
What we do know is that zaza has hinted big time time that when all was good (?) the intention was basically to sell off the gas and concentrate on the oil on a go it alone basis, The one thing we do know is that the get out of the ground price is very low and the oil is good quality (sweet). I am basically a long term investor and do not really trade much but this does mean that I look at the long term. Well if you look at the oil sector it is basically cyclicle with the knock on effects with big oil as far as exploration/ development etc. Leaving aside the oil glut at present and the virus on top it explains the present oil price - remember a key patrt of the the oil industry is replenishment so when oil is cheap than the industry as a whole shuts down so as to move the market up to gain profit. this is the classic cycle in its simplest form and is almost predictable. I would acept that the demand for oil in the future may well go down in the advanced world due to green issues but this is not an overnight thing. - it will be gradual- However in the developing world for the foreseeable future oil will be in ever increasing demand despite what that green brug thing mayu say - I would guess for the next 20 odd years. Add in the cycles of the industry and the green shoots of oil exploration are just about beginning to show with in the majors - do not look on the surface at what they are doing now eg BP taking an impairment that is only cleaning the stables with the change in ceo add in their increased lifetime borrowing capability as of now they do not need it so why? I would say just good business actions whilst interest is cheap and they will not be using yet. .look at the other majors and they are all doing the same thing but maybe in a different way but with the same end in mind. This to means only one thing they are getting ready for a spend up! but not quite yet.
Today low and behold I have seen the first comment (in this case from morgan stanley) a senior oil analyst is now predicting oil to to be at $100 a barrel by 2022! One swallow does not make a spring but if others follow this makes life very interesting indeed. His price will be wrong by definition but say $80 a barrel and our low cost of both out of the ground etc and long term cheap interest rates I would suggest that all this bru ha ha is about only one thing only survivability. The rest will follow remember the oil cycle really has not changed in terms of demand.

Erazzel I have always said that Zaza has political ambitions however on a more relevant note.,this level of speaking out along with SN back in the limelight I am even more convinced that they are doing this under advice from some very powerful people in the world of politics and diplomacy (two rather different things) I can only hope that they will back him up in the actions that they can invoke otherwise he is on a literal suicide mission. I can think of many African leaders who have not been backed at the crucial moment and I know this will not go down well with some but what we as shareholders want and need is stability in the US Government in terms of Trump remaining in power. Those that know me this is my area of interest as again as shareholders the last thing we want is a change in US foreign policy as I am convinced this will drag on beyond our near deadlines.

Whilst I would support Moles general view , I can not help but think there are also other factors afoot which in broad terms have been discussed before. It seems clear to me at least that the Company could have fallen over many times before but somehow a white Knight has appears out of the blue , add to this the huge political support we have and the strategic desires of both the USA and to a lesser extent the EU and whilst limited the desire of the Georgian Government to both join NATO and and some stage maybe even the EU ( if it still exists)
I have suggested before that my own view is that this is a game of 3D chess with us being nothing more than a pawn. I may be wrong but how many of us could even play a game of 3D chess without seeing all three boards? I certainly could not but being blind to 3 boards it certainly looks as though we are a goner but we are not and the game is still on JUST. Could be that we are reaching an end point some time in the near future and it works out that our little pawn becomes a Queen and then check mate? Remember there is so much at stake with the USA involved if it comes down to a few quid that will be found as Uncle Sam may just want to prove a point and all this transfer of assets from one jurisdiction to another with perhaps the key Company being USA based as far as legal stuff goes ( and we all know American courts/legal system can be influenced? My four pennyworth but I have to live in hope until the end.
I have one question which I seek some wisdom on. Here in the UK if arbitration is used and some form of agreement is agreed then fine but you still have the option of going full Hogg to the courts. What is our situation . could we still go to court and where? I suppose I should add which company is the the one who holds the relevant asset? I really am getting a bit lost.

There is always one or two! even at this stage- sadly. I ca only say as of this second we are not dead.

Mr Mole. Still enjoying the Malt somehow I hope. I do agree that this murky and grey on what little we know . I view it as a 3d game of chess and we can only see one board, where in this rather prime evil soup as far as clarity goes we sit I think is the important issue, whilst I do agree with you that this is highly political the real question which I think we have never found out is just how important as an entity we are. Are we just a tool being used for a base for the west to gain and solidify western influence in wider sense in this corner of the world or is it about just denying the assets in the ground to other parties with of course the secondary benefit of weaning Europe of Russian gas? I really am at a loss as to which side to fall on. What is clear is that either synopsis will have many common elements (not helpful) but one common element that I see is that it stills remains an ambition to get the gas out of the ground with as much western control as possible from our rather minor position as share holders in a minnow Company. ( We have already seen on the bigger scale the games that have played out with BP in Russia with it ending up with BP being a shareholder rather than a full blown partner and that was a real game on the big scale - Bp were not lucky on this it was inevitable as BP had what the Russians wanted)
The difference as I see things in our position at present is time. If it is mainly swayed towards the very big picture the West will not care about time passing as long as they get near enough what they aim for Bad news for us but may explain why we simply have not died. If it is the lower ambition all it does is to shorten the time period. In both cases underhand tricks will be used especially by the first tier influencers and the benefit to the Company it that somehow it will survive as it has feet on the ground so to speak ( but heaven knows in what form or arrangements) but not necessarily with any benefit to ourselves as I fear we are still just a very small pawn. I do not rule out any benefit ie profit to our selves but it is way down the list of priorities.

Perhaps a side issue but worth consideration is Zaza himself. Obviously a wealthy man in his own right and I wonder what his ambitions really are? Could be that he has an altruistic vain in his body? he just may at this stage in his life want his own Country to have a few bob in the wider sense and to remove it self from Russian influence? such people do exists ( he may not have started out like this but so much time has gone by and of course nobody knew at the start what the real strength of the asset is and people do change their minds over the decades)
All of the above is just my own view but I can find no solid reason why the Company has not died - it is all very odd.

Enjoy your Malt and keep well

Anybody had a look at this? Do people think it is real? never had much time for that page.

Hi Zen
A small part of your post refers to Zaza's charm offensive in London. I suspect your views are correct however just to recount a conversation with Tim from yellow jersey at the time " This type of engagement is something I am encouraging with all our clients". I did look into this and certainly some of their clients who are well established have taken up a more -shall we say - "a more active shareholder engagement approach" add to that leats not forget we did have the Nomad present at that time. Iam certainly not making any excuses for Zaza just recollecting that time period. My own views are unprintable as Zaza was acting as nothing more than a cheap carpet salesman - It is part of the job of a CEO to promote the Company but in a professional way. Certainly not having a pop at your post.

Not known anything for real on the results of the arbitration. Many on here think that good old Uncle Sam may poke their nose in, That may well be the case as Uncle Sam is very concerned on the reliance on Gas by Europe. Indeed the EU's stated position is they they themselves have the same concern (took them a long time to come to that conclusion but that's Europe for you) To me based upon the view that we still have something worth having, is can the EU and Uncle Sam have a joint approach? and can they have this in time? The EU is in real trouble at present -m perhaps even as far as its own future goes due to internal struggles ( a real pity the UK does not follow the EU well enough) From the EU's perspective it really does need a diplomatic / Political success of doing something right to justify its existence at present and with a lead coming perhaps from Uncle Sam (The EU really does have difficulty in taking leads) it just might make a difference with the views of the Georgian Government on not being too harsh. Add in the Nato effect and it all adds up the need of a lot of hard thinking on all sides.

Good to see that Mr Mole has come out of his hole. Hope he still has a good supply of single Malt! as I think we will all need a few bottles until we have any near the truth still.

Just looking in but nothing to say except keep well

Don't think I will care any more today. Boss has just walked in with cases of English Sparkling wine and the corks are popping. No more work for the day!

Cont -In my view this now completely out of our hands and I suspect even the Georgian Govs hands as this at least in part the battle of the big boys over influence in the area as whole. This could take a great deal of time but as things stand at present we need to exists to allow the big boys to play there game so they will go at their pace but if we are all alive at the end of the day there is so much at stake on the East West and possibly China battle Uncle SAM will want to win both the big battle and I suspect based upon the high chance that Trump will win his election and secondary to him but good for us a commercial battle.

All in my own opinion but based upon a bit of history and knowledge of the past of how these games are played. ( Little bit of a tip if any thing appears in the FT about georgia you can bet we are involved somehow as it will effect BP it just the way it works)

Sorry for the repetitive subject title and for some at least a reminder of the past postings prior to de listing.
It does seem that some of the predictions from some who have not only been LTH's but also have had a realistic approach to this investment often with some real expertise not only of the O/g industry bit also the politics and influences which can interfere with development.

What we have know is I think the bubbling to the surface of some quite deep and to some extent predicted issues. If I leave the Companies position out of the post for the moment. Nos1 The game playing of the internal politics of Georgia was predicted by posters about 3 years ago- fundamentally the question was then and perhaps now is "Just how much influence do Russian stooges have within the Georgian political system actually have?" This very much related to the up and coming elections. The general view then was that the asset was real and was of geo-political importance and that pressure behind the scenes was taking place to make sure that Georgia kept facing West - it was viewed that this was mainly from Uncle Sam ( and who knows which agencies were involved_) but it was pro active but not necessarily visible. I would suggest that Uncle Sam over these last few years has been viable showing its hand in an ever increasing way - when ever this happens there will be those who one way or another interfere with the overall ambition of Uncle Sam both internally and externally and I believe this is beginning to show and is a bit of public battle with all these letters etc flying about. I would suggest that the authors are very well informed officially but will not admit this. I would also add they would not be doing this unless there was a public AND a private reason for this to be taking this action now - so it is more than just the elections so just what is it?
The EU (god bless its socks) has a strategic desire to be less reliant on Russian gas. Unfortunately it really has no tools to do much behind the scenes despite some of its PR that it acts as a nation can ( Its own intelligence gathering is about zero and its so called Ambassadors really are nothing more than an expensive figure head) It also have very few tools other than spending money to do anything of real use when matters come to a head A country like Holland -no dis respect- has more capability than the EU and it goes into a different ball game if the UK get involved (which I suspect we are but as usual not showing our hand) but Any comments from BP even if just on a direction of travel with the new guys in place will be a huge clue and of importance
There was also some talk of China poking its nose in. As yet this is still below the RADAR so we do not know.
So where does this leave us? At the end of the I think/guess we are just the visible tool of what I see as point of principle and I don't think you can have this fight unless what we hope we still have access to is very real ie BIG GAS.