RE: Highfield Resources Muga Project secures debt finance8 May 2022 13:41
The latest investor presentation states $411m capex but recent inflationary impacts will likely increase. Define "big"? That's a function of NPV, IRR, payback, mining complexity and market uncertainty. Back in 2016, Highfield's Muga Project had an outline finance package ready once the final permits came in. At the time long term potash was only $400/t, not the $800/t at the end of December. That was because even at $400, the incredibly low capital intensity, long mine life, prime position to serve premium markets and simple mine design had the Muga mine standing out, which is why EMR Capital was and is largest shareholder. That financing package was improved again in subsequent years as Muga took a protracted time to get its Mining Concession. A new CEO landed in 2021 and changed everything again including his advisors. That debt package for about 2/3rds has now been finalised.
So in 2022, more failed crops on climate change and the aftermath of COVID. Now a war. Crucially in this business, like iron ore, access to lowest cost logistics and your customers makes or breaks your potash project. It isn't just the fact supply is taken off market via sanctions but equally important, blocks on supply chains (not just a case of flowing potash via China to reach West Africa or Brazil), hence why EML is tweeting about 250% potash price increases specifically to key markets in West Africa and why Brazil's agriculture minister is touring Morocco now. I see permanent changes to supply from Russ/Bel as it looks almost certain Kherson Oblast and Donbass are permanently "annexed".
Khemisset's capital intensity is even lower than Muga and its NPV comparable even using only 19 years vs Muga's 30 years. It'll produce 810ktpa potash vs Muga's 500ktpa for comparable capex. Both enjoy decline access to shallow resource and both lower first quartile capital intensity. Muga is $500/t but Khemisset lower still. BHPs Jansen is about $1,500/t.
Potash prices reportedly hit $1,200 on spot market to West Africa.
I am watching Muga, from where EMLs Hayden Locke once worked, for how it solves for the small equity piece. At this point, it looks like a t/o target. I think the CEO is enjoying his options and expect we'll get the answer this month or next. Macquarie is running a bid process to revive Salt Lake Potash in Western Australia where EMR is reportedly in the frame.
As per EML update and 5th May tweet, the pace of activity has ramped up in today's new world with formal expressions of interest landing from local and international banks and export credit agencies. No wonder with Khemisset so advanced and spot prices hitting $1,200. I anticipate between now and final banking mandate letter in say Aug-Sept, EML will report on environmental permit award, offtake agreements, conditional banking syndicate, solution on equity piece and advances on detailed design/construction. All of this will de-risk the project and start closing the very large sp to NPV gap.