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One good RNS out of Guident et al and MMs will mark up the sp but having awarded stupidly priced shares to insiders, they'll benefit from an almost criminal additional profit for inconsequential risk. If the company reports its NAV and then allows its broker to completely undermine it, what's it worth? Guident is about to sign a major first AV deal in Florida and numerous EV companies testing its energy re-gen shocks - game-changing stuff. TEK needs to sort out its image, find some proper strategic investors and start walking its own talk.
More likely inability to get potash due to supply chains leading to thrifting in some regions, creating a perfect storm for more failed crops and higher prices. Week by week commentary is interesting chat but investors will make a decision on current 19 yr LoM, which'll readily extend to 30+. Last quarterly update, EML said pace of work across all fronts had accelerated. Market is looking forward to a new update.
Key customer export markets for Khemisset are Brazil (same for Canada and Russia/Belarus) and West Africa where spot price hit $1,200. No idea what it is now but it'll be volatile. Safe to say, $800 is the new $400. $1,000 as acceptable new basecase? - don't rule it out when 40% of global potash supply disrupted and droughts / heat damaging crops and major grain exporting regions now taken by Russia that signed a deal with China in Feb to receive its wheat exports from all regions. Whatever happens, transport costs aren't coming down and customers across industries want closer, diversified supply chains. Morocco’s geographic advantage over Canadian projects is unassailable, so to its proximity to port and simple mine design. Recall a conversation with Highfield on Muga Project where among interest from equity investors, pension funds were in the mix. This was at $400 3-4 years ago. They're attracted by very long mine life and predictable high margin production that's somewhat inflation protected. As we know, Japan, Peru, Bangladesh among Brazil and West Africa now courting Morocco for fertiliser supply. Don't know what role OCP could play - potentially a strategic investment to solve for the equity. It'll be interesting to see what EML does as its investor presentation referred to that as its "trump card". Personally see potash demand/price going higher because the damage being done today will be felt on a lagging basis, as we saw from the pandemic - food prices were at a record high pre-war in Feb. Cereal crops are vulnerable to attempts to thrift on potash, so we could see widespread failures this year and next for example. Hopefully environmental permit is granted imminently and we get news on conditional financing + other major steps to construction. Muga has its debt now agreed - smaller than Khemisset and lesser NPV but - interesting to see if Israel Chemicals also mining potash in the basin moves to buy the project.
Interesting this US/Chinese AV champion just lost its Californian AV licence on account its 'safety drivers', well, aren't. How and when Guident steps into a relationship with Pony or Waymo, I don't know. But Pony is reportedly valued at $8.5bn. Do see Guident at inflection point. It'd be nice when success comes, for TEK to give the share price a chance without recycling shares at stupid prices to its go-to set of stockflippers.
There was significant volume at 33.5p as the shares looked set for a break higher. "Marginal buyers at 29p" chooses to overlook that fact. Anyway, hopefully the portfolio companies now have enough to announce the type of news they're capable of. Lucyd probably waiting for market to settle down before IPO announcement.
You are absolutely correct WG. TEK is worth alot more than 25p and strategic investors this lot are not. Unfortunately management aren't yet willing to genuinely value PIs and this repetitive behaviour has for many, made TEK a 'no go' despite wanting to invest. While small in the grand scheme, poor quality preferential placings to traders should rightly be called out.
Agree and admittedly haven't the history. Equally likely to be day trading on charts. Just one observation - I know everyone wants the permit as it essentially unlocks the project but other mission critical work getting done alongside to get to main construction. Refreshing company isnt pumping out news for "news sake". If PIs need to force sell, unfortunately they'll be out when MMs increase the sp.
Agreed. Too much in the pipeline to stay down here after emotional selling this morning. TEK talks about each of the 4 companies being $1bn+ potential. That being the case, TEK and its useless broker could've done much better.
Issue we have here is the weakness of the shareholder register. Too much retail that need to force sell because easy money days are over and bills are going up. EML's investor presentation accepts that if we want to connect project NPV to marketcap, quality IIs need to get onboard. All being well with the environmental permit, final technical work completing etc I am confident that will happen. Til then, we have individual PIs selling to meet crypto margin calls (yesterday) apparently.
What's ashame is there's probably a few hacked off PIs that dumped this morning out of annoyance. The company has immense opportunity to multiply in value and the placing cash will support that. Put the disappointment at the insulting [to PIs] placing price, for a relatively small amount all told, to one side and let the inevitable positive RNSs follow.
The good and bad news is, we now know why the sp retraced from 34p. The other good and bad news is that a couple of positive RNSs are now likely, to pump the sp to further delight insiders. On the bright side, if there was no demand for Lucyd or Microsalt etc you wouldn't need to strengthen inventory.
This point about being oversubscribed is a good one. In most industries I can think of, it means you mispriced the deal and failed your client. In the end, it matters little if you've taken a position for a multibag. That said, insiders have managed to milk PI cash for free.
That's what the placing subscribers have done so why not! No point selling out of tantrum. Its all for growth etc and bluesky upside. Nonetheless an insulting price for PIs to miss out on once again.
Agree with all the growth and rationale but the selling at 33-35p would've included some of these "supportive" investors made aware of an opportunity to recycle profits 7-8p lower than where significant volume was occurring. But then if alot of that volume is generated by your future investors taking profit, its not going to help anyone but them.
Funny someone mentioned 25p. Suspect this was known and explains the sp. £2m raised to build inventory for Microsalt and Lucyd, add AI features at Guident's control centre and general working capital. That's the cat out the bag. Small amount to fund growth but surely a lazy broker?
I got stuck at work so was unable to connect all the same so look forward to next week. In the meantime, really nothingness volume here. I was reading and watching some AV content re China and Japan. Interestingly their current robotaxi services have a driver in the front seat that takes over where the AV cannot cope or in emergencies. I get it - the AI/ML as the AV clocks up miles etc, but fare payers are still paying for a "driver". That said, do understand they are both heading quickly towards no safety driver as per US rollouts.
Coos Bay is surely worth several tens of million given historical spend is such and project NPV etc must've skyrocketed at $8+ gas. Should be enough to cover the bills.
AGM appears a timely occasion to wrap this up and expecting an RNS very 'shortly'. EUA has never seen logic in setting deadlines for offers because if the date passes and your potentially best offeror hasn't shown its hand, what then? I do believe Artem's move to iNED is a sign its coming to a close and the size of M&A he associates himself with, a nod to potential quantum. For those complaining of no RNS updates, we can confidently blame AIM for that. Sorry Kira, you can thank Trump for the west learning not to sanction metals it needs hence why Potanin has a rare exemption.