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Trump has approved a 28-point peace plan to end the coalition war in Ukraine war, developed with Russian and US officials, focusing on security guarantees and stability. Contents look as per Istanbul '22 (update) and Alaska i.e. an armistice with long term negotiations, but one that allows immediate sanctions relief and path to normalisation. Neocon General Kellogg, who in April 2024 presented his co-authored plan (freeze conflict, send in European troops "because Russia's desperate" for a deal) has his P45, leaving in January. Trump finally had enough of the BS reporting. Witkoff, Vance, Trump wing wins.

"yeah,on just one port,off the black see....hit 3 times. no,offline. and that's just one exporting terminal......in total,around 30 have been hit."

Who told you that, Zelensky media? The same guy that a couple of weeks ago said he was clearing out the last remaining RFU in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Do you have any idea of the size of a refining complex? These drone attacks are pin pricks, which might explain why the first 29 didn't achieve your purported result. One hopes you've learned by now that the global oil trade isnt dependent on one export terminal, and that the damage done in reply to Ukraine and western interests has been immeasurably greater, which is why there's finally an effort by the US to exit Project Ukraine.

"Putins desperate....his oil production plants,are getting hammered."

3% of total refining capacity, even according to Ukraine sources. Another fail.

EUA is making progress of course, as per RNSs, outside of the improving diplomatic environment between the US and Russia. And so one should not ignore that the team are working hard to deliver a liquidity event with all i/ts etc.

Zelensky, Yermak again spinning tales off going to Turkey to meet the Americans regarding restarting talks with Moscow. This, just a week after Zelensky's Deputy Foreign Minister said talks suspended to the end of the year. In truth, Zelensky's been summoned to Istanbul. Yermak is tagging along to escape the heat - Witkoff refused to meet him, demanding Zelensky. Most interesting the US delegation isn't going to Kiev. Rumour Umerov is in the US seeking asylum and giving information to the FBI. Zelensky's Energy Minister has resigned. US military delegation apparently in Kiev. 28-point plan reported in corporate media, which sounds much like Istanbul deal of April 2022, updated for today's realities.

"Russia's army and air force,cant even take a small town the size of scarborough....after 21 months."

Ah the perils of reading The Spectator and then speaking in public. 21 months would take us back to the catastrophic defeat of the Ukraine/NATO summer counter-offensive. The one that Ben Wallace et al claimed would reach Melitopol in 48 hours, then all the way to the Sea of Azov, but which in fact ended with barely a dent in the Surovikin line. AFU never recovered from that. I assure you, RFU was dozens of miles east of the twin cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohad then, and only broke through the fortified town of Avdeevka in April 2024, further east of Pokrovsk. Same old meltdown, cope, and spin: in the summer, the media finally admitted the importance of Pokrovsk, and now predictably, its 'more a propaganda win for Putin.' The frontlines are buckling at ever greater frequency and speed, because the "winner" of a war is the side that defeats the others army, not who colours in the map or holds undefendable positions to please the media.

Peace talks between the only two real parties at the table, US and Russia. We have reasonably good corroboration from Lavrov (and notable silence from the FT) they had an agreement in Alaska, which Zelensky tantrumed over. Basically "Istanbul+." We know Trump and Witkoff approved of the April 22 Istanbul deal from past comments. Now even the most fervent nationalist, Zelensky supporters in Kiev are calling for his ouster and lambasting his bizarre road trip around Europe. 250 fighter jets he's apparently buying - really??? Anti corruption agencies are closing in. The jester ran and packed his Defence Minister Umerov off to Turkey apparently for peace talks with Russia, yet Peskov confirmed no contact made. Rumour is Umerov has run and also went to UAE, probably home to various bank accounts stuffed by Western taxpayer money.

In the meantime, EUA is advancing and hopefully working through the final phase.

Despite two misinformation pieces by the FT on the events in and around Alaska and the mooted Budapest meet, Lavrov confirmed that Putin agreed the plan originally tabled by Witkoff in Moscow. This plan was re-presented in Alaska as Putin expected, and its contents generally agreed. The proposal being Zelensky regime's pull-out from Donbass for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations. The US side knows Donbass is lost, so better use the negotiating chip while it's there. Of course Zelensky immediately span stories that he's winning and a few days ago claimed his counter-attacks were clearing a few dozen RFU from Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Geolocations and video prove that's more nonsense. We see his Generals undermining him publicly, where just a few days ago he was told to wait for the results before making claims of success, which prompted a reaction. Pressure on Zelensky is intensifying on the battlefield and via anti corruption probes on his inner circle and the cash machine might be running dry, rendering him isolated and useless to his apparatchik. When the US is ready, it'll drop him.

The battlefield and economic situation is driving this initiative. The diplomacy and settlement, the result that consolidates the reality. The EU is out of money and can't appropriate the immobilised assets, having tried and repeatedly failed. It nor the US can produce the weapons Ukraine needs in required quantity, and according to possibly Britain's most respected retired professional soldier in a recent Independent article, that wouldn't matter anyway as AFU lacks manpower. Once the twin cities and Pokrovsk and Myrnohad, and possibly Konstantinovka are taken, the remaining two cities are left exposed. So, its in Europe (and US interests) to get moving.

Europe's new 12 point peace plan addresses core Russian security interests. First time that's been done. Yes, it still contains demands the Europeans have no means of achieving, but some realism has hit London/Brussels. At least negotiations can begin, with a ceasefire starting 24 hours after the proposal is accepted.

In Alaska, corroboration from Lavrov that the Russians accepted, what was a US proposal, for Zelensky to gtfo of the less than 30% of Donetsk Oblast he still clings to. The proposal first made in Moscow by Witkoff and then again in Alaska as the US side promised. Trump appears to have reneged on the deal perhaps under pressure from the neocons, and the face of Zelensky's claims he's winning. Meanwhile AFU is facing crisis and encirclement in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, and RFU has initiated new frontline movements north and south in the last two weeks. Potentially Trump's waiting for more evidence of calamity before pressuring Zelensky to accept, because Donbass is fully captured, there's very little to bargain with. Nonetheless, the US and Russians were and potentially are close. (re-post as half my message was cut from the last one).

Particularly encouraging exchanges between Rep Luna and RDI Head Dmitriev on the peace dialogue. He's returned to Moscow having met Witkoff, Rubio and others. Meanwhile, Trump's currently in Japan. It wouldn't be completely out of character for him to make an "unscheduled stop." Either way, there's complex dialogue rather than zero under Biden. Eventually, this US vs Russia proxy war will be resolved diplomatically.

Sanctions were drafted by Biden administration, intended for Harris to apply if she won according to some reports. Also that Rubio postponed the mooted Budapest meet as Trump got ahead of himself. As long as work continues, progress made.

Yes, the 3 day claim came from General Milley I recall. The initial invasion served its purpose of forcing a negotiation, but where the Istanbul deal was ultimately wrecked. On the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions, expect slightly higher pump prices and temporary supply chain disruption. Indian refineries buy Russian oil on a spot basis, blended with oil from other sources, from the very same Middle Eastern / Singaporean traders as the European refiners do. Trump's gone a "slightly Biden" by claiming Modi agreed to phase out Russian oil by year end. The Indian government stated there was no call at all. Possibly about 30% of crude going through Indian refineries is Russian origin, again bought on spot basis and irreplaceable from other sources. Either way, these sanctions are a far cry from those Lindsey Graham wanted, which the US realises it doesn't have the global economic power to impose.

The benefit of these sanctions evidenced below. Despite the fact they'll do nothing but potentially raise energy prices, Trump soothes his hyperactive media critics with new "tough" measures ahead of the proposed summit. OFAC exclusions on Russian oil are the only relevant measure, never breathed because Russian oil is needed on global markets. As for Budapest, read the actual US, Russian and Hungarian readouts rather than press meltdowns, and you'll 'steps' being taken and for a 'durable' peace settlement as per the key agreements in Alaska. No reference to 'ceasefire' first, which is the tired Kellogg/neocon plan to rearm Ukraine. Read Lavrov's comments and its clear the objective is a treaty commitment not to expand NATO and regime change in Kiev ('root causes'). Zelensky has just ordered the removal of the Mayor of Odessa, fearing him as a rival in an upcoming election. It's obvious Trump doesn't respect Zelensky. Question is, when does the Trump administration finally give him his P45. His presence has allowed the US to leverage punishing trade deals over the UK/EU and self-harm, including Netherlands' recent massive own goal on expropriating Nexperia, which will further hammer European manufacturing.

Not sure where reports came from it had been "shelved." It was never fixed. Work is ongoing to setup as confirmed by all parties including the host, Hungary. Trump confidently stated yesterday in connection with the meeting and war, "I think we're gonna get it resolved." Expect lots of corporate media misdirection and meltdown - its what they do.

Oh dear boy, what a waste of your life. Good night.

For what its worth, the Europeans and Zelensky eagerly want to freeze the war before being ejected from the final 30% of Donetsk Oblast, marking a significant defeat. Lughansk is already 99.9% captured.

Not just to save his skin from the nationalists, on this occasion the puppet is correct not to withdraw from remaining fortified cities until there's a permanent settlement. Essentially Ukraine would give up its remaining strong points before negotiations. Here I believe there is room for realism on all sides. But by making the "impossible" demand first, it will be seen as a concession later.

Many a fly by night political/war historian on X and corporate media invoke memories of Chamberlain when arguing for more war. They should however think for themselves and understand the differences. Firstly, Ukraine's armed forces - manpower and arms - and financing runway is in crisis and facing a state of collapse. It is going to lose Donbass - that is obvious from the frontlines, forming to cut off the final line of cities. There is no other geography like Donbass in Ukraine. So the question you should be asking is what if Zelensky and his handlers refuse a deal? Well Ukraine will still lose Donetsk Oblast except with huge losses. Moreover, the history of this conflict tells us Ukraine will then lose more territory. The consequence of more poor decisions will be the loss of Kharkiv Oblast and Odessa, reducing Ukraine to a landlocked rump state and dealing a major blow to British interests in the Black Sea. The biggest barrier to ending the war from the European leaders perspective is how history will remember them. A humiliated bunch of losers. Here, Trump has no such baggage.

Bulgaria proposes to open air space to enable Budapest Summit. All that said, wouldn't be surprised if this is all misdirection and on security grounds, will be held in Saudi.