Member Info for DrPatience

All, I share the growing confidence!

Great interview, in fact the CEO looking almost smirky and had to stop himself from not jumping up and down in happiness...

No 2, deals with be negotiated based on value of the asset, it will have no link to the share price, but if you cross calculate afterwards I can pretty much guarantee you it will better than any placing so far!

SE18, I agree, a placing now looking increasingly unlikely. In any case, if a placing had to be done, it cannot be sprung on us with no notice. I haven't checked the current approved resolutions already in place, but such huge placing would no doubt need a special meeting/vote. Not the end of the world from a value perspective actually, but at this stage the farm down is much cleaner.

Good luck to all of us long term holders. We may even get cookoo onboard again!

Boom...well, Delt clearly needs to get out before that :-)

Then repeat.

FD, the report provides the NPV calcs for different scenarios, see spreadsheets Appendix C, page 40 onwards http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2164A_1-2024-1-18.pdf

The report calculates NPV, so takes into account all costs allocated to Deltic at 30%, but is not concerned about where the money comes from. The appraisal drilling costs are stated to be $33 million (around $10 million to Deltic), which seems reasonable vs the declared costs for Selene. Even if sligthly higher, it will not change the end results very much.

This is actually a very signifcant report and will no doubt be used by Delt to close the funding deal without giving too much away.

The question now is how much you need to give up from the NPV (@10% discount factor) worth around $200 million to fund the $10 million drilling costs? TBC. I cannot see a partner paying the full value, they would want a slightly higher discount factor. Even so, there is a lot of value. Even if you are super aggressive, Pensacola is worth a least 80p/share on its own...

Purdey, you need to wait for the monetisation announcement...if they don't get the deals signed, then the sp may go a lot lower. I firmly believe deals will be made, but many are still fearful. Odds are good, much better than most bets out there. No guarantees, things can go wrong.

All good so far...

This is done for one reason and one reason only...closing the monetisation/farm down deal. Talking %/price. Very good.

MrA, thanks, I agree it is very underwhelming!

Probably time for him to start delivering for shareholders rather than predominantly for the bankers!! At least it is on the agenda, so who knows. The smooth, friendly style is all good, but is not going to cut the mustard unless we see real change.

Crunch time in February!

Happy, I agree, the board is extremely poor. What a sh@t show. The chair is a clown and should just go. No-one taking responsibility for the Looney mess everybody in BP knew about? A joke.

Boom.boom...

2 drills 2024:

Selene, drill Q3 2024, Delt needs to pay 25% of drilling costs up to $25million, above that in line with share of rights (50%). Assuming high end of stated drill cost range, $40 million, then cost to Delt is $13.75 million.

Pensacola, drill Q4 2024, I presume they will pay fair share of full costs. I don't recall seeing a drill cost budget range for Pensacola, but we know a positive investment decision was made late last year including an agreed budget. However, again, assuming the high end of similar range as for Selene, then Delt will pay 30% of $40 million, hence cost to Delt is $12 million.

In round numbers, overall GBP 20 million. They have a bit of cash in the bank, but I have assumed it will mainly cover operating costs for the next couple of years. The declared strategy is to cover this funding gap through monetisation/farm down.

The assets are solid and have actually improved over time. Funding to be sorted out though, but if and when, then this will fly back to where it should be. In reality we are in limbo with no tangible news and thin trading volumes.

There is a corporate presentation on the Delt website + also see recent RNS's for supporting evidence.

GGG, very insightful, you have clearly looked at this quite carefully. I am generally aligned with your thinking

I have been arguing for some time that a fund raise actually would retain the maxium of future value (as current discount factors will be lower after the next drills), but I think it is tricky because most investors are fearful of this route (widespread misconception that they will be "cheated") and the fact that the amount required is about the same as the market cap. I would also totally be up for it, but the declared strategy is NOT to do another fundraise (unless we have to, obviously).

I also agree that 10X is a bit of a stretch (also too much other noise around, including windfall taxes, politicians...). I would agree that 5X is fairly likely provided we get the funding in place one way or the other.

The geological chance of success for both drills is very high at this stage, the main issue is financial/commercial.

It seems the market "wants" bad news!!?

The cynical me would say it's the big boys rinsing out the silly pi's. Easy money!

Non execs have a specific role, I have elaborated before, as you may recall.

Only a joke if they cannot fund the 2 drills. Patience, man!!

If they cannot, then I will start saying the same., though!

Jack, yes indeed, the clock is ticking. The broker valuations included around 10% reduction of Delt's share of Pensacola to fund the drill, as I recall. The value of 20% of Pensacola after a successful drill is fairly easy to work out, say at $5-7/BOE. It's a very chunky number for sure. Plus Selene after farmdown plus the rest.

If they can make it happen, I will be a very happy bunny!! If they canot make deals soon, everything will be up in the air. May still be resolved, but more messy.

You may need to pay/subscribe to see Canaccord and Stifel's analysis. Sindce the upgrade of Pensacola in July 2023, both are estimating £2+ risked value, targets of around £2.4.

IF DELT can monetise through partners (i.e. not raise funds from investors), I feel that's entirely possible. If not, a fund raise will be tricky and I have no idea where we will end up. Ultimately it will come good if the 2 drills this year are successful, but they need to be funded first.

The wait for news is a bore, but I am optimistic. This is not without risk obviously.

So much for coal use being phased out:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/china-and-india-cant-wean-themselves-off-coal-anytime-soon.html

Steel production still needs coking coal as well.

Looking good for the Glen/Teck NewCoalCo!!

Agreed...but why falling?

Fear?

How this share on many days open at a very narrow range and then stay almost constant throughout the days even with semi decent volume, be it sells or buys. In the bigger scheme, trading is thin, so I assume most holders just hold...

Last time I tried to put in a buy order for a larger sum, £5-10k, it immediately jumped, so just wondering if the market maker is trading with himself to show liquidity? I don't know enough about the market makers role and what they are allowed to do, so would welcome thoughts! SETS is somehow clearer to me. Thanks...

Hopefully dealmaking, BadA!😀

Out of interest did you or anybody else communicate with their IR? I guess they will have to be tight lipped though.

I normally don't bother; tried other companies in the past with no success (you just get standard replies).

Thanks both, I fully agree with the sentiments!!

Would be useful to get some positive updates in due course...

I'm holding and optimistic about the various strategic changes made so far, so happy for it to go up...but with no news, why do you think it has upwards momentum, MaryBr?

Just wondering.

"relying" not "replying"...wish this board had an edit function!