Member Info for DrPatience

Ade, put all your money on a short! Go for it!!

Short it then, go for it!!

Forget 2022, it was highly unusual.

For those long, the future is bright.

For me this is a main reason for holding (apart from the ongoing need for materials for the green energy transition):

"The acquisition of EVR unlocks the potential, subject to shareholder approval, for a value accretive demerger of our combined coal and carbon steel materials business and, in support thereof, we advised that Glencore could demerge the combined company, only once Glencore had sufficiently delevered towards a revised $5 billion Net debt cap, expected to occur within 24 months from close."

Hence, a very good reason to keep distributions to shareholders down. It's an investment. I bought in at 140p, but will happily top up if we come down to 350p.

Djm, presumably an RNS with another funding announcement will create a step upwards change on the day or immediately after, then continue on the chart trajectory you can see? Just wondering, I am not a chartist, but interested in your view on the next leg after 41p, with/without the funding announcement. Thanks

JY: good summary, very sensible!

10bn return to shareholders over 3 years vs a market cap of approx 24bn is not to be sniffed at! 200p+ in due course, fingers crossed.

Divs and buybacks easier to get away with (politicians and journalists are watching...but with an overwhelming focus on divs) and net result to us is ultimately the same. Comes down to multiples.

Eviking, LivingtheDream: doesn't it make sense to keep the divs at the low end and retain cash to pay for Teck, which will upvalue Glen in due course?

To me that's perfectly sensible, if looking at things holistically and with patience.

Getafgrip: hear hear!

My average is above 50p.

Do I believe that's good value? hell yeah!

Am I irritated that I didn't pay 20p for all of them? hell yeah!

Do I believe Delt or others manipulate the market or carry out fraudulent activities against small PIs? No, absolutely not!

I agree with you, they are not great with small companies and charities. I hope the new initiatives will help or at least they should grow up and tell certain customers that they actually don't want them. Focus is not a bad thing, but it needs good communication and transparency.

The other big UK banks are no better by the way. Personal experience!

"Capital returns: plan to return at least £10bn of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026". I believe consensus was around 9bn, so a 10% instant adjustment seems possible.

Will come down to the CEO's ability to present a coherent case this AM. NAV also up. Looks all pretty solid to me.

The biggest risk is another scandal, something they have been quite good at delivering in the past!! 😀

Djm, I tend to agree with you, but the fear factor is out there. For Delt, the big fear is/has been the funding situation. Clearly this is being sorted, I have 100% faith in the next deal being done soon. So we will soon have 2 fully funded drills on the go. If it goes well (good chances due to very high confidence in the geological data), then the long awaited re-rating should hopefully be well underway. Let's not forget, we are still just below 2p in pre-consolidation money. We are more progressed now than when the shares were 4p back then (equal to 80p now).

200p is a stretch short term no doubt, but we should defintely be well above 100p after (fingers crossed) 2 good drills.

Benji, it's a valid point you raised. Sadly, the UK politicians put their noses in business. Oil&gas, banks etc. etc.

FD, you are quite right, but Labour also relies on a lot of oil&gas voters, so hopefully no worse than now.

Politicians are generally not exactly trustworthy - that's on both sides!!

Ha cookoo, thanks for the confidence (not) :-)

The North Sea output is tiny vs the global oil and gas market, so market prices will stay whatever they are. So my guess is that the value of licences would not really change much.

JD, No 2...thanks, agreed. The jump just seemed random, but clearly a re-rating is totally overdue!

I totally agree but did I miss something?? What's going on today?!

Indeed...

GS is a fairly humble, understated guy, but there are lots of really encouraging clues in what he says, including the fact that Shell is very bullish about Selene. What's not to like!!!

Bottom drawer stuff, for me, will take longer for sure! I'll just hang on to my shares, rightly or wrongly!!

Status after Selene farm down (this is obviously a 2 step process now):

(all in pence)

boom.boom 35/15 (20 if partial)

Glide 40/5

InsideLeft 104/6

SouthEast18 60/18

No.2 105/12

Butcher-boy 120/19

Titmnttm 90/12

MarineConsult 55/10

Purdey1 80/15

Dr Patience 71/13

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The simple question was: what happens, on close, to the Delt share price on the day of a confirmed funding deal (the expected outcome) or a message saying funding attempts through monetisation/ farm down have failed (ie placing process must be initiated)? Prize: the honour and glory!😀

No more entries obviously...

GGG, probably depends on the deal to an extent, but what you are saying makes perfect sense. I have actually been advocating for some time that fundraises would have been better for both assets, but if you see the widespread fear and the associated depressed share price, mainly because of that possibility, then it is also obvious why the CEO is pursuing the strategy of monetisation/farm down.

In any case, Pensacola is already far more derisked (as also kindly highlighted by SE18, JD and getafgrip) so a decent deal ought be very feasible. It could come within a few days up to max. 3 months from now, I think

If not a good deal, GS should just walk away and do a fund raise.