Member Info for DrPatience

Starbright, you are spot on, GS a smooth operator!!

Yes, that's also my interpretation, but as things are further derisked, loans will start being an option (especially with two solid partners) or simply sell or farm down at a higher valuation.

40p is 2p before the share consolidation...still outrageously cheap (even vs the last low ball fundraise) given we are in a much much stronger position now!

But confused...why would anybody sell at 28.5p???

I would personally have preferred a big fundraise (would retain even more future value)...but there is no appetite for that, clearly!

In the context of doing a farm down, this is very very good news.

Hopefully all the doubters will now accept the Delt team is doing what they say they will do!! Delivering.

FD, I fundamentally agree. Wrt the sp, Cookoo is 100% right, of course. It's super low. It's also a huge opportunity, so I have been reducing my average significantly over the past months. Most holder's actually just hold though (given the thin trade) and fear of dilution/having no funds is clearly hampering the sp!

About fundraise: I do not think a £20mill express book build is possible. To the best of my recollection, the current, adopted resolutions don't allow for nowhere near this amount. Hence a special meeting would have to be notified etc. A process. I would strongly object to a fundraise not offering each shareholder their fair share based on current holding. Only out of principle. The past fundraises were broadly speaking done at the market rate (and even fell afterwards), so any shareholder could merely have picked up their extra shares from the market in order to keep their % holding. The best thing is to keep enough cash ready, equal to the value of our current holdings, should this happen. I cannot see this happen to be really honest.

Shell is clearly confident that Delt will have funds to pay expenses already being incurred. It's entirely possible Shell indeed is at the negotiating table as we speak!!

JackD, I am re-posting an entry I made on 17 Jan, I don't think we have received any further info re costs since then. Hope that helps. Always happy to hear other people's estimates/thoughts.

"2 drills 2024:

Selene, drill Q3 2024, Delt needs to pay 25% of drilling costs up to $25million, above that in line with share of rights (50%). Assuming high end of stated drill cost range, $40 million, then cost to Delt is $13.75 million.

Pensacola, drill Q4 2024, I presume they will pay fair share of full costs. I don't recall seeing a drill cost budget range for Pensacola, but we know a positive investment decision was made late last year including an agreed budget. However, again, assuming the high end of similar range as for Selene, then Delt will pay 30% of $40 million, hence cost to Delt is $12 million.

In round numbers, overall GBP 20 million. They have a bit of cash in the bank, but I have assumed it will mainly cover operating costs for the next couple of years. The declared strategy is to cover this funding gap through monetisation/farm down.

The assets are solid and have actually improved over time. Funding to be sorted out though, but if and when, then this will fly back to where it should be. In reality we are in limbo with no tangible news and thin trading volumes.

There is a corporate presentation on the Delt website + also see recent RNS's for supporting evidence."

Gasatapeep, this platform showing a volume of 299,529 shares, which seems to match the feed on the London Stock Exchange. So in round numbers a daily value of £80k? Sorry, not trying to be funny, but merely trying to learn if I am missing something?!

If the figure of 299,529 indeed is correct, then that's wafer thin trading, approx. 0.3% of shares outstanding.

Out of interest, gasatapeep, where did you see this volume?

A few semi decent trades today, but real momentum still not here, as far as I can see?

I'm not surprised tbh. The real - and only significant - issue is getting the funding sorted.

More prospects will be very good for those with an aspiration to hold long term!!

BadA, yes, I trust that's the case. It's my understanding that Shell got Block 29/3b and the one awarded to Delt is a less prospective, residual one, so they (Delt) will consider whether it's worth accepting.

Blocks 22/24f (part) & 22/25e (part) = low risk Dewar prospect, which is good.

Maybe some more to come in SNS!

Getafgrip, yes indeed, same here, we must have been typing at the same time!

All good!

Links to maps etc here:

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/licensing-and-consents/licensing/

(Under 33rd round header)

Crossed wires, getafgrip! :-)

We got some, in Central? Apologies to all if I misread this; on my phone in a noisy place!!

Jam tomorrow stuff, but we got some awards in the 2nd trance!

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/hftpmq4w/33rd-licensing-round-tranche-2-awards-by-administrator.pdf

All good, but I guess we are all waiting for the funding deals!!

So true jcb, and if the CEO and the BoD cannot work that out, even with highly paid consultants whispering in their ears, then this share will remain a dog!!

200p + is entirely possible and reasonable, but they do need to deliver on the hype leading up to the strategic update!! If not, what's even the point of talking about it?

It seems one or more of their clients wanted to reduce (RNS says "DISCRETIONARY CLIENTS", so I assume that's what it is rather than one of their funds).

It's actually not a small reduction (-4.6%), so I guess they have been selling for some time (weeks or months) until dropping below the 5% threshold and the motivation may have nothing to do with Delt itself. For sure they do not have insider info. I agree with Rot1 that it has been holding pretty well despite this.

They may of course have taken their decisions before the recent updates, so they may also regret this now!!

I am not concerned about this. As always: when someone sells, someone also buys! What a great timing, I wish I had bought all my shares in the low twenties!!

Getafgrip, thanks and you may well be right!

I'm in no rush, so why not?

End of week update. Apologies in advance for any ommissions or mistakes...

(all in pence)

Glide 40/5

InsideLeft 104/6

SouthEast18 60/18

No.2 105/12

Butcher-boy 120/19

Titmnttm 90/12

MarineConsult 55/10

Purdey1 80/15

Dr Patience 71/13

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The simple question was: what happens, on close, to the Delt share price on the day of a confirmed funding deal (the expected outcome) or a message saying funding attempts through monetisation/ farm down have failed (ie placing process must be initiated)? Prize: the honour and glory!😀

Just reply and add, if you want in!

No 2, I am the same, I always stay well clear of AIM actually. However, I feel this one is different, notwithstanding the sp seems to live in its own sphere detached from what I feel is a good portfolio of assets (and getting better/ more derisked). The main issues of fear right now: green lobby, politicians, windfall taxes, oil&gas companies pulling out if the NS and funding. I feel the usual risks around geological chance of succes are almost not there for Selene and Pensacola. The only one with any real substance is the funding. Without funding we cannot drill twice in 2024, as simple as that.

Thin trade of this share suggests to me that most are holding (and most probably paid a lot more that the going rate), including the large shareholders.

As for the valuation by the brokers with input from the CPR. The CPR actually only values Pensacola by the way. Don't forget Selene...on top of the CPR valuation. The latest Allenby valuation (on success/fully derisked) is 465p/share for both assets. That value is pie in the sky, but even a third or a half of that would be very nice.

The NPV10 is based on a successful drill and that funds can be raised, not only for the drill in 2024, but also the whole investment in the future infrastructure. There is a good chance of this happening with Shell as the operator. One should also add operational risk, risk of war etc, but that's generally low if there is a decision to actually start producing.

It's a waiting game in a sense, but the current risk discount is overdone in my books. The discount for the risk involved is too high given there is a decent change the funding will be closed soon. Once the funding is annouced, I believe we will see a serious re-rating.

Hopefully we will have a very happy Cookoo in 2024!