Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Telfer is on NEM books as a liability of around - 300 million Oz dollars i should think, if GGP take Telfer over for 1 dollar, then NEM gain 300 million Oz dollars and no liabilities from the book, this is around 10% of what NEM want from sales of all projects they have listed so far. Now its just a mater of what 70% of Havieron is worth and we have ROLR which is our ace in the poker hand plus the joker. I think Newcrest/Newmont have spent around 250 million usd so far, so with the POG in the ground at around 50 usd so about 200,000,000 usd we are looking at 450 million usd for Havieron at tops. I think 300,000,000 should do it so NEM gains 20% of the 3 billion usd they are looking for in handing over Telfer and selling Havieron to GGP. NEM want a clean break, no comebacks but willing to give advice. Would you walk away from this deal?
DM
For the doom Sayers out there i have only to paraphrase Clinton in that its the board of directors STUPID. Our BOD are not there to trash their reputations, they are there to enhance them and make loads of money on top of the millions they have already. DM
See OMI are in an agreement with NEM and others to buy out their interest in a project where they get 100% for a consideration of 1.5% royalty payment x smelter, this is the way to go for Havieron and Telfer and NEM walk away free and easy. Just need a bond to cover Telfers land restitution when all is shutdown. DM
Hi Speedy, something else is going on me thinks, China only bought 1.5 billion dollars worth of gold the past 3 months, they are doing swaps with Belgium for 10s of billions of dollars at the moment. Total china dollar holdings are over 3 trillion dollars so really they are stuck in a strange position as they cant take on the mighty dollar without screwing their own economy. Will take many years to reduce there dollar holdings. At the moment Japan is buying the dollars that China is selling via Belgium, EURO/Dollar exchange i presume. For the West is only a revaluation of gold, a bit difficult for USA as they would have to sell their holdings and buy back to prevent hyper inflation of revaluing gold from 45 usd/oz to 2350 usd/oz. Just some thoughts. DM
NEM want to recover 2 billion usd by selling 6 producing projects, the other projects which include Telfer/Havieron are only the cherry on top of the cake. They want rid of Telfer ASAP as its a drain on resources and Havieron is the pathway to sell it, no other choice and GGP is in the prime position to take the lot and i think on the cheap. If i was NEM i would hand the lot over to GGP for a royalty payment of around 1.5% not forgetting that Havieron potentially can produce for 40 years so a nice little earner for NEM and GGP taking on the responsibility for Telfer which we can use as a hub for other miners who will part pay for the final shutdown of Telfer via toll fees. DM
In 2022 NCM stated that they expected 1st ore from Havieron in the 2nd half of 2024, since then we we had NCM playing around trying to reduce GGP SP, screw up the 5% of Havieron, TO of NCM by NEM and now the delay for the lower aquifer and we are still in the 1st half of 2024 with the 2nd half to come. Once the decline restarts we should be at the top of the ore body by year end and ore out by 1st half of 2025 so only 6 months delay on the 2022 forecast. If the above goes to plan then we can expect the FS and DTM this year, hopefully by August. So we are not in such a bad position as people think and we look forward to the new drilling results where ever they are in our 100% projects and JVs. As SD says much to look for this year without the NEM sale of Telfer/Havieron 70%. I think the SP will move up on the restart of the decline and then pushing up big time the FS and DTM which NEM have to resolve as part of the 70% which NEM have to complete as part of the contract at their cost. DM
Commodities are now in a super cycle which is the start of the third cycle and it started 3 years ago so it has about 11 years to go to the peak. All commodities are involved and GGP is in the perfect position, better still if we found a large deposit of silver as its the only commodity that has not reached its ATH. If you look at all the Silver ratios like Gold, Oil, Copper, S&P 500 Silver should be at least 650 us oz which is based on its ATH of 50 usd oz with inflation taken into consideration. So gold, silver and copper have a long way to go. DM
best way forward for nem is to say to ggp what price for everything in the paterson and take responsibility for everything in other words wash our hands of everything and walk away. i say yes 1$ and 300 million usd bond to cover restitution of telfer. ggp would have to use nem/newcrest design and engineering practices and mining safety manuals to run telfer and finish havieron as ggp will not have such a document/manual, one cant do the repair of the tailing dam on the back of a *** packet. dm
Daz, GGP do not have to make an offer for Havieron, only match the highest bidder if there is one. For Telfer it is not the same unless NEM include Telfer in the same package so then we also have last refusal as they cannot split between the 2 projects. DM
I think that GGP has been negotiating with Newcrest for buying Telfer and 70% Havieron for sometime and now Newmont that is why SD has been improving his BOD and other bods before NEM came in the scene. The change in the debt facility was also negotiated before NEM TO of Newcrest. My feeling is the decision on Telfer/Havieron will come soon and should have been sooner if the ponds didn't start leaking and now the stop in production has thrown the spanner into the works so to speak. If the boundaries of the TO had been sorted but not signed then for sure GGP will want sureties on the additional cost of repairing the ponds and restarting the plant.
Don't forget NEM have to produce the FS and decision to mine which are contractual and would affect the TO price if not resolved.
The good news is my Storks came back to the nest after disappearing when GGP share price plummeted some 3 years ago so i presume the SP will now increase when they lay the eggs as they did before, fingers crossed. DM
Seems to be a trend that when POG goes down Bitcoin rises and this includes spikes in POG like when Iran was struck as well as bases in Iraq the other day. I think that when the markets crash Bitcoin will as well and gold will get those reduced funds as safe haven. DM
You need the Brits as well as gold miner shares. We are in a super mineral cycle which started in 2020 which will last to 2035 at top of the cycle. Average super cycle lasts on average 29years from the bottom to back to the bottom of the cycle. We are in the best position of the super cycle which is on the rise and as we go into production we will be increasing the gold amount to 300000 oz per year at the same time the POG and copper is also increasing as long as the energy is not increasing at the same rate. In the future we will be at the top rate of production and much higher POG which will provide funding for the development of the bulk caving project and going into higher production while we will be still on the upward curve of the super cycle, would be nice if the total production is more than 500000 oz/yr by year 2029, still hope to be here at that date Lord permitting. DM