Member Info for DrMaze

Just to update my message of yeasterday, since Iran bombing, EZJ -17%, IAG +14%

Yes, because you know french strikes ah ah

EZJ, the share value I mean, has long detached from anything happening at the business level. Since start of the year, JET2 +9%, IAG, +26%, RYAAY even more but had a fall last year, regardless it is now back at all time high......EZG - 6%.

Looking at the period after the Iran bombing, things are even worse.

Only comparable seems to be TUI. Is TUI the right comparable to EZJ? Really?

Unfortunately we have to hope this is not going to be a 'tit for tat'...having 200 Iranian fighter jets bombing Israel is not going to be very good, for EZJ or anyone else. Trump is a cardboard president now. Difficult times ahead. I am a long term holder here, but going into 4xx again for another 6 months is not going to help.

Except you warned EZJ was going lower due to inflation, weak employment, weak UK economy, high costs and low revenues, low number of passengers and other macro blob, while this is due to Trump decision - because why not - to kill the global economy.

This reminds me of the story of two men. One was saying the other was very ill, and would soon go into a coma. Everyone was saying he was actually very healthy. Then, a random madman passes by and shoots the first man in the head, putting him in a coma.

The other quickly replied: you see, I was right! And then came by everyday to gloat with the family of the other man about how he was so right.

Time well spent. Thank you.

Maybe you did not notice but revenues are also significantly higher than pre-pandemic. Have a look at earnings per share (per share), pre-covid, and now. Then check the SP.

GLA

Or maybe the dividend being paid...

Without Europe sucking in US service exports and dollar as reserve currency, bla bla.

Or to put it like the dealmaker: HUGE trade imbalance in services. UNFAIR!!

They need us more than we need them! It reminds me of something. I do not think it ended with unicorns in my garden..

Not that it matters much today, but I suppose airlines were up due to the results by KLM and Lufthansa. Even they got their breakthrough.

Thou shalt not rise above 500!

(from the book of Market Makers 20:6, 4-20)

I also trade, don't get me wrong. However, it is frustrating and not reassuring (for market efficiency) where clear business performance is not reflected almost at all in market price. I am not frustrated by EZJ specifically, but how money does not flow anymore where it should (where it is used to good effect in the real economy, for real growth), but in unproductive or speculative assets (housing in the UK, some crypto in the US whatever). This reminds me of so many of the economic issues of the last 15 years, and it is annoying.

Rocket ships - ftse = ah ah ah nice oxymoron

Nothing will ever be a boost to EZJ. You have impressive growth? don't care. Record profits? don't care. low debt, don't care. Lower oil price? don't care. dividend? don't care.

I have a suggestion for the CEO. Instead of forecasting always incredible targets with EPS in line with years before Covid, and then with incredible strength meet such targets, why not offer modest guidance, and then always outperform? that seems the key to success in this casino..ehm market..

Sorry, a quick question on this 'traders theory'. Assuming EZJ is doing very well (which is my position and reason to be here as LTH), shouldn't institutioal investors or other long term investors start buying more? Or are we assuming all long term investors (including institutional) are already in? As the company continues to perfomr well, shouldn't we expect these to either add more, or for more LTH investors to get in at these prices? This should slowly remove shares available for traders similarly to the idea of share buyback from the company.

This is why I am still puzzled (and annoyed) by the share performance in the last year. All information is that the company is doing very wll, EPS have recovered, there is still significant growth potential, analysts all agree as well, yet there is no further interest beyond short term? something is missing. Or simply, once again, the market is not efficient (see IAG, Rolls, etc). If so, we need a catalyst to break out of the long sleep.

A bit like Europe...

I am waiting to buy the dip. When Savage is back here to tell us the world is ending, that usually is my signal to start buying.

Efficient market hypothesis, where are thou?

As of today, EZJ is the only European airline which is not at the levels reached in December (-9%). IAG, Wizz, Ryan, Lufthansa, even TUI have reached that or more. JET2 is the only laggard, -6% from December peaks. But they are already at pre-Covid levels, so...

Interesting, as out of all these EZJ seems to be the one with more growth potential, less debt, improving EPS (with IAG, of course, which is indeed explding upwards), no Boeing, etc.. not only in theory but as demonstrated in company financial reporting.

Food for thoughts, or just market bullsh$%

Oh yes, I remember similar arguments for Brexit. Surely these billionaires pushing for Brexit have a cunning plan, because they are so smart with money...it did not work that well it seems.

Oh look, KamiKwasi has a PhD in economic history, he is so smart...lettuce meltdown.

Putin is a great strategy master

And now Trump has economic advisers... and the US never play games they cannot win, except almost all their policies in the last 20 years

Having said that, this is turbulence for EZJ. We wil reach the destination in time, enjoy the flight.

Ah, the famous 350 million buyback leading to almost 7 BILLION increase in market cap.

I suppose the date and increase have nothing to do with IAG reporting much higher earnings per share and profits back in November.

If you agree we are doing as well as in pre-COVID, then surely you would also agree the SP (and market cap) should be in line with that period, whilst it is a good 30% below that if nto more (with share dilution).

No one was banking on doing better than before. Doing just as before (even if now the company is stronger, has low debt, more further growth potential, leaner etc) should have this at 700-800.

Also, we doing about as well in what are considered difficult years (or at least so you say).

Investors should be forward looking and EZJ is saying, yes we are perfectly on track to achieve full year profits that would bring our EPS in line with pre-COVID, so SP should be around 700 then (but lower debt, more growht potential, and this in supposedly challenging years of quasi-recession, high interest rates, cost of living crisis etc). But for some reason this is not enough, and we should forecast even more?

LSE investors are not forward looking, they are backward looking as they are accountants not investors, and UNTIL we actually make that 700m profits, well then EZJ is surely not worth it..

Completely agree, I was about to post this is my last company on the LSE and once we reach my target here (and we will, soon) I will leave this place for good.

Unfortunately, EZJ is too good of a company (and even getting better!) to leave now.