Member Info for DrMaze

Lot of clarity? so you know what is the plan the US is discussing regarding the oil situation (or do you believe they are really not thinking about it? I do not mean Trump, I mean serious people), or how many launchers Iran still has, or how strong is their government now, or how long the war will last.. I could go on, but markets are open, I am busy elsewhere..

Hedging or any other info will not matter today or this week and possibly next week. fear is driving the markets now. there is no analysis. this is march 2020. panic will continue until at least a bit of clarity on the situation emerges. there is none now...

It's on the rise because yesterday the Savage Oracle of this Chat came back to life to remind us of £3 soon approaching here. The market, as do I, found this to be the clear signal of a bottom, and started buying big.

The whole board is getting killed by the boring slug of EZJ SP. Information on loads on selected flights is quite interesting, not necessarily as an example of the whole company's performance, but just to reflect on the development of specific (not primary) routes.

However, more broadly, load factors do not matter in the sense that the SP does not move on that anymore. We have had almost 4 years of constant growth, business delivery, targets constantly achieved, massive holiday growth, expanded net profits, very high load factors. TP of most analysts way above current SP.

This during a period with many major wars, energy war, Trump and tariffs, cost of living crisis (aka money printing inflation). Yet, flights are still full, ticket prices go up, but load factors remain high.

You would imagine this is the strongest evidence ever that this sector is extremely resilient, and people want to fly/have a holiday even if the world ends. Or even more so in that case. Yet, we still get a few saying: oh no, THIS TIME is different, demand will collapse, this time there is inflation (or deflation, remember that??), this new war will destroy air companies, bla bla bla. Then, another year, another record profits. And the cycle repeats.

Spot the missing element: SP is dead. No reaction whatsoever.

It is no longer about what the business is doing.

I have read about this mystical '£6 -7 by year end' for years. Maybe it is time to specify which year we are talking about here..

Meanwhile, FT today: Ryanair raises fare and profit forecasts after ‘huge demand’ for flights

The market: does not matter. We do not care if EZJ performs well. It is orange, so you cannot trust it.

So, one week to FY26 Q1 Results. Ideas?

There are two predictions to make here: the business, and the stock market.

I am confident on the first, not sure about the latter and the usual shenanigans there.

Unlikely.

Lufthansa is also up 2%, and for some reason I never understood, they often have similar movements sometimes (I know as I hold both, and I have noticed this pattern in the last few years).

As long as you know none of this will happen, fine.

Also, everything out of Morgan Stanley is pure garbage.

Budget is done. Time to fly.

Agree.

While I still do not like the CEO' style and approach in dealing with the market, I admit the business is only pointing up, in the right direction. I will actually start accumulating (that is, increasing my position) after the UK budget is out of the news.

"The fact the market doesn't value that today, is not the CEO's fault."

Let's agree to disagree on that.

Ah, ok. That must be why IAG and Ryanair are close to a all time high. Lucky for them they do not fly in UK & Europe.

Strong disagree. Running a strong business is only a part of a CEO's job. The other is to deliver shareholders' returns. In four years, the SP is flat. Flat. And let's not talk about pre covid....If you think our competitors/becnhmark (to stay in the same 'unloved' industry) are WIZZ, fine. If they are IAG, Ryanair or even Jet2, then we have a problem.

At least we now have final confirmation that there is price manipulation on this stock.

So, if Jet2 add flights from Gatwick, it is bad for EZJ becasue of competition. If Whizz removes flights from Gatwick it is bad for EZJ because of low profitability there.

I assume the next argument is that EZJ makes a lot of profits, it is bad for EZJ becasue of high taxes.

If it rains, it is bad for EZJ

If there is sunshine, it is bad for EZJ

la la la

I think I will ask AI to write a song on this, and I will send it to Kenton.

I like the fact that no one knows why there is so much EZJ weakness, and everyone is making up random ideas. A very powerful signal EZJ is undervalued. How long will it last? That's the question.

The play here is very simple. Wait for the results: shorts will push this down no matter the result (and surely the CEO will not help, with the usual super-grey reporting of beans and lack of leadership at the leve required for a FTSE company). Then super combo: budget, and further pressure down.

Everyone is thinking this, so there is no buying interest.

After those two events though it is buying time. This doom and gloom constant messaging is way over the top looking at the real economy. Unless the AI bubble pops before Christmas, there will be a rally post budget, even if just to celebrate the end of the constant drip of u-turns from these amateurs.

Maybe this is all just a blip for LTHs, but we really need to invert the trend and have the SP reflect the underlying business.

The whole situation is just depressing. Anything that happens, EZJ goes down. Jet2 in Gatwick? We fall, they don't. So, is this a risk free move for them? I do not think so. But apparently yes. Or to say it differently, anything wins over EZJ.

The board should be ashamed. The business is performing and the SP is a disgrace. Still, no vision, no message, no leadership. Even Starmer has more leadership than Kenton...

Also still faithful (or stupidly hopeful).

But I want to see less bean counting (great to know the business is doing well) and more leadership/vision from the board (I want the SP to reflect the reality of the business doing well: this is currently missing...).

Let's hope at least the board has learned something from this takeover rumor and how EZJ is currently perceived. I doubt it.