Member Info for DrMaze

I am also out now. What a roller-coaster. I think this is a great company. I love it. I still think management has not done a good job, or we would have reached these levels on performance alone. I hope the company will continue as we know it.

I wish all here, especially the old timers, the best. Even savage, gave me a few good laughs. I agree this may have further to go, but I have significantly exceeded my targets, doubled down during the war with Iran, and given I was highly leveraged, I know this is the right time to say goodbye. Early retirement here we go (not a joke). Flying easyJet!

We would not be at 690 in any case; here, there is some kind of additional scepticism in the market (see also notes by analysts) regarding regulatory issues, or Stelios. Personally, I would have expected moving between 620-630ish. I think things will change once we get a confirmed offer.

Do you really think that Castlelake would risk buying EZJ for what is still a very good price just to save a small % on the back of results that everyone would see obviously strong affected by a one-off? Does not seem realistic.

Maybe it is just me, I have never been in a stock under a takeover, but it seems all very quit. So, we are at 610 because the market does not believe this will take place, or simply because there is still no official offer (until early August). However, why would Castlelake not make a formal offer at this stage? It would make no sense for them. There is a small % of another bidder, but that would simply push up the SP. So, the only explanation that seems sensible is that the wider market thinks there will be regulatory issues and even if Castlelake wants to make an offer, they won't be able to do it.

My question is: they already did something similar with SAS, they have decades of experience in this market, what could be a regulatory issue that was not considered properly at this stage? It seems the market is suggesting Castlelake do not know how to do their job. Or is there something else?

If you are still in, prepare for a lot of manipulation in the next few weeks.

I still remember some JP morgan ass-analyst saying that Rolls Royce was a clear sell just before the start of the massive bull run in 2023. I still think they did it on purpose.

Maybe, but I gave the statements from both Easy and CastleLake into the prompt, and I noted this was only an outline agreement. Overall, agree with you AI is good, but it needs a lots of tweaking....in any case I am disappointed this is only at 611 now. Even with an agreement in principle for a cash takeover, you can bet on EZJ SP action to be a fart..

Yes, and this clearly includes AI. I reported how yesterday I was really trying to convince Gemini this would not open aove 630, and it ckep saying this was impossible, and a 650 was "mathematically" certain.......

Interestingly, I have been trying to convince Google AI that the SP will be at 630 on Monday, and it continues to say this is impossible given the current context, arbitrage, shorting, outline agreement etc, and that the SP will be around 660-670.

That many got burned. No Christmas bonus.

Isn’t it wonderful?

Baron, I was assuming the offer would not be 700, but slightly above that. Institutional investors signal they want to see an offer start with a 7, if Castlelake are serious, they would go for 725 at least, (or likely).

But I get your, point.

However, why Huddersfield? What did I do in my previous life to deserve this?

I think the market sees this not exactly 50-50, but more like 30-70. If there is a deal, we would expect 700 or close. If there is no deal, based on other airlines, we may expect a drop to pre Iran war levels, so 480-500.

At 560 currently, and more or less stable, it seems the market gives slightly higher chances of no deal. Or we would be closer to 600. That's how I read it. But I am probably wrong. Still in. Also probably wrong..

How can you get a share 6% down unless something big is happening, in this case no bid coming?

At the same time, this is a significant insider trading, various minutes have passed and still no news, yet massive SP movement

In other words, for people still in, this is now a bet on a bid agreed, leading the SP to 680-700, or rejected, leading the SP back to 480-500. My expectations on the numbers, but the nature of the bet is clear. I also agree the announcement, when it comes, will simply state yes or no. No more games. This is it.

As Branson would say, if you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and invest your money following broker analysts' recommendations..

I would call today SP action shaking the tree...more like a gentle breeze?

Anyway, it seems many expect 700+ offer to materialise, why is the SP stuck below 600? Any view on this? the market does not expect the bid to happen? they expect a bid, but EZJ to say no to realistic offers (Castelake will never go much above 700)? what else?

Many say EZJ is worth 8-9-10+. Fine, I agree value would be higher than 8.50 myself. However, time matters. How long will it take for EZJ to get to these valuations? from a base of 500, 700 is a 40% increase. How many years, with the current board and approach for that to happen (not to say 800-900)? I hope the board is not allowed to refuse a 700 offer without a vote.

Please note that again the board has done nothing once the Iran war started, nor now, to deliver a stronger message to the markets for EZJ value.

100%

This info was not posted here, but highly relevant I think:

Castlelake on Thursday also added New York-based asset manager Brookfield Asset Management to the bidders, along with two previously disclosed partners, former Malaysia Airlines CEO Peter Bellew and senior industry executive ​Mark Breen.

Shorts are still close to 5%. Interesting days ahead.

There is a way to get to 600+ in the short term. Sack the board. With the current board and leadership, this will remain stuck in the 500 forever. They have been saying they have "a plan" for 4-5 years now. Yes, there will be increases in the SP in the 5 to 10 year horizon. But in stock markets everything is relative. Look at IAG, Lufthansa, Ryan and so on. Then EZJ. It is not like the market is not aware of EZJ holidays, or new more efficient planes. But the execution is too slow, assumes everything goes well for 5 to 10 years etc.

EZJ should be flying at around 800+, but with current management will not move beyond 500. So, if I could talk to institutional investors, I would say either take the offer (650-700), or change the board.

The same for myself: I would happily take 650-700 if we cannot change the people in charge. They have had years, especially the newer lot, to provide vision, leadership, value to shareholders and they have constantly shown they either do not care, or think that all is fine.

Even now, with a potential takeover, they simply repeat that the company is great, we have cash, we will get to a mythical 1billion profit etc. They have been saying that for how many years now?

End of rant.