Member Info for DrMaze

I think an offer is unlikely at this stage. If anyone is in only for this play, I would probably get out.

If you are in as LTH and still see the opportunity for a recovery play, though not quick (and any bid as bonus), then just hold. Or possibly add once we get a 10%ish drop when the bid period expires. Shorts will use it to push it down and get out, before the summer really changes the narrative from the 'winter losses' narrative.

EPS in 2025 were around 30% lower than average (not peaks) pre-COVID, but market cap around 50% lower. This is pre-war in Iran, now market cap is around 65% lower. This is EPS, so taking into account dilution.

Even assuming EZJ was no longer growing in 2025 (not true, as we know/should know here), this should be around 600.

The summary is as follows:

the opportunity is that someone pays something closer to a realistic value for the company

the risk is we remain stuck in the mud of a SP defined by analysts that cannot do the math for a little longer.

BTW, we could go to 600+ without doing anything, and without offers, just by changing board/ceo and listing in the US.

We'll see what is going to happen to the SP. However, I will take this opportunity to say once again that EZJ board should wake up. The response to the expression of interest is pathetic. Look, it is difficult to buy a European airline, regulations! Is this your best reply? This is an opportunistic bid, unfair! Do they live in la la land? Of course it is. The point is that it is the board's fault that the SP was below 400, as such SP does not reflect in any way the value of the company. No leadership.

@Akhtar234, I was not very clear. I meant EZJ - in my view - should be trading at 600 right now, with macro/war/jet fuel issues, winter increased losses etc, not that this is the correct long-term valuation.

My point was that without a specific offer, I struggle to see the SP get to 500 or more this week. Again, I hope to be wrong, I hold here. We'll soon see.

I am deeply invested in EZJ, and I believe real value to be around 600, however expectations of 500 plus this week are unrealistic because the market does not yet understand growth and value in this company; unless a formal bid is proposed, which is unlikely this week.

Also, if there is a Iran deal, the bid offer will no longer materialise: the SP will naturally move around 450-470, opportunistic PE will not move at that level (btw this also works in reverse: if the war starts again or things deteriorate, then an offer or speculation of an offer will keep the SP up).

I hope to be wrong, and I would be happy to see close to 500 this week, but I do not see it myself.

One thing I know: 300 is very distant now.

So, US airlines that had almost no hedging are now almost all above pre-war SP levels.

Apparently, only Europe is affected according to markets. The whole thing is 100% ridiculous.

But EZJ is still 20% down. And you still get people saying this should be 300ish. Sure.

Fortunately, markets are a weighting machine. See you all in a few months.

To all investors:

you do not assess information already priced in. It seems like some are saying: look larger losses than last year! It will do down. It is already down because we are aware that jet fuel is what it is.

What has changed with respect to the update in April?

To me the only real change is that demand is extremely resilient. So, really, the only problem (that we alreayd know of and it is broadly priced in) is jet fuel cost.

But we do not invest with a 6 month outlook. In one year, this will be another storm we flew through.

If MM, shorts, or weak investors sell, I will start buying big. Just my view of course.

Go and look at US companies, with no hedging....yeah, really suffering. Delta is actually up before war levels.

Different context, of course. My point is hedging is not the problem here.

Also, oil refineries, governments and airlines keep saying no shortages for the summer.

Also, EZJ has hedged almost 50% for the first half of 2027. Not as good as Ryan, but again that is not the problem here.

Fear, demand destruction and uncertainty over how long this will last, with stagflation issues rising is the problem.

Those with low margins will suffer, inclusing EZJ. Still, in my view EZJ is 'relatively' well positioned (which does not mean al is fine...) due to flexible model of EZJ holidays: meaning this is not Covid, and no further capital required. I would actually start a buyback right now. But the bean counters will not do it.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said he's become less concerned about potential jet fuel shortages in Europe due to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

“The oil companies are less concerned,” O'Leary said at the Norges Bank Investment Management conference in Norway, according to Bloomberg. “They’re now saying there’s no risk to supply disruption up to the start or middle of June.”

O'Leary noted that increased oil production from such areas as Norway, the U.S., and North Africa appears to be compensating for the disruption of shipments from the Persian Gulf. He added, however, that airline ticket prices may still increase this summer due to continued uncertainty about the ongoing conflict, Bloomberg said.

so, everyone is guessing..

Anyone is following JET2?

The RNS looks very good, yet it falls hard. It seems it does not matter if companies say they are hedged (so costs under control this year), bookings hold etc.

I think a lot of people (and algos) and pushing this direction as much as they can, before releaisng the pressure to bet on the opposite direction.

BTW, shouldn't markets value companies on long term profitability? Or is the expectation that oil will remain at over 100 for the next few years? Comparing information on the ground with current valuations, something is off.

Savage posting here is a guarantee of an imminent recovery: never fails.

So you did not read the trading update at all? The business was in line wiht expectations, and the increased costs in winter were not only already discussed (hence the SP being lower than 500) and mentioned explicitely by Jarvis. Still, they prediced growht across the year, as it seems it was the case until the war.

So, either you predicted the war in Iran (you did not, actually, you were talking about deflation), or you had/have no clue.

Thank you for you attention on this matter.

Did someone have a look at SP for US airlines? They notoriously do not hedge fuel, yet some have SPs in line with pre-war, others just 10% down. Meanwhile in Europe it is chaos, and here they hedge. Funny that.

Run out? It will not run out.

Disruptions? Yes, but it is a different thing.

According to Ryan and EZJ CEOs, if the war does not stop (or better: if oil does not flow as before) by end of April, then possibly they may have to cut 10 up to 20% of flights in end of May/June.

I love the smell of shorters burning in the morning

So, apparently there is now more shorting than during Covid.

FTSE250 demotion? No impact, it is a nothingburger in the chaos we are going through.

If things remain as they are though, 250 could actually be a possible SP....

There is no limit to idiocy apparently.

I agree with the overall sentiment (fear/speculation/shorting running markets), and I think it would be useful to make a more precise back of envelope calculation of the hit to EZJ, also considering hedging. I think this should be doable with AI help and latest investor report.

However, oil perhaps not best metric here, fuel jet has doubled since war...

Of course there is no certainty. This is my view. DYOR and all that.

However, it seems people look at a short term horizon only. When the Hamas attacked happened, we got to 360ish. There was a lot of fear of a massive war across the middle east. Much more uncertain situation than now in terms of possible escalation (as we did not know strength of players). The war in Ukraine was also much more acute in the way it was affecting the economy.

Now, the only factor is oil prices. There is no war going on. One sides is bombing everything, the other waits and launches a few drones/missiles. Iran is not Ukraine, and the US is not Russia.

Unless we assume the US is ready to have oil over 100, or even 150 for several months-end of year and beyond, which would crash the global economy, lose Trump and his party the mid-terms in a massive way, and all that going months without being able to find alternative solutions on oil, then this is not going to be a "structural" shock.

Overall, if you think investors look at the medium-term, once we know the shock is not structural, buying will start.

Shorts are accumulating, yet they can only push the SP down a few %. Investors who wanted to sell, have sold. The shorts may push this down a further 10%, then it will become increasingly risky for them.

People will still go on holiday this summer. Even more in Europe. And yes, they will be willing to pay more (fuel surcharge) to do so, as they did in 2022 in the full inflation crisis.

Assumptions, yes. It is possible oil will go to 150 for several months, creating a global recession. That will see us below 300, sure. Do you think this is the most likely outcome, given what we know at the moment, and the players involved?

You will not see 300p.

I can see there is a lot of panic around. Good, time to start buying/refilling in the range of 350-320. Not for May 2026, for May 2027.