Member Info for DrMaccers

The only limiting factor for AEG is feedstock availability. As they begin to secure this then the prospects just get better and better

well it kills the time!

However is more than convinced this is the last weekend without the news we want

Heres some wild number crunching lol

http://drmaccers.blogspot.com/2018/08/newfoundland-numebrs-for-fun-aeg.html

No more clns have been excised for quite some time. It isn’t them. Perhaps some placement, or just bored PIs

No sold up after phase 3 results Posted in the LSE chat and Twitter group when I did. Might revisit at some point.

why didnt you?

Its cheaper to ship from NF to Europe than it was from Ukraine to Turkey across the Black Sea says Richard!!

Brilliant posts

Anyone want to have a stab at the asset value of 1.2mill hectares of prime forest???
And the 5mill hectares in Alberta?

Its in the hundreds of millions if not billions

https://twitter.com/PremierofNL/status/1026822781126828033

Most of the cabinet seem to be in the one place at the one time currently with the Chinese coming.
Are they gonna sneak in a wee 30min signing session in the next day or so?

Likely

Powerwood have a contract to merchandise 300k tonnes of timber a year but with all the waste wood etc that goes up to 450-600k tonnes of wood. Say that makes 25-300k CS then there’s another $30mill profit and 30p to the SP I gather in time they are looking more Alberta FMAs and NF ones. The Metis deal that could come will add significantly etc. A few European forests and suddenly the balance sheet assets reads in the $billions and profit is way over $50mill a year Not to bad for starters

The $10mill for 100k CS isn’t Revenue it would be profit!

Although every 100k CS seems to be at least $10mill profit (very roughly) which is nice

The only bit we know is the wood cutting allowance of 140k cubic metres of wood. What this translates to in tonnes for a given tree species is hard to work out. Then how much extra wood isn’t included in the cutting allowance? Maybe x2-3 more that would usually be waste. It’s 2:1 feedstock to CS. Basically I’ve no clue how much CS Newfoundland can produce lol. Certainly more than 100k but how much??!! Anyone any better working out than me?? Too many unknowns

Whichever way you look at it, when the forestry assets get listed on the balance sheet it will be EXTREMELY interesting

What should the SP be post the deal???
Ive written a blog previously on forestry pricing
https://drmaccers.blogspot.com/2017/11/aeg-forestry-update.html

Other companies with this size of forest are mcapped in the billions.
The biggest deal i can find recently is when CatchMark bought about 0.45mill hectares for $1.4billion
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/09/pr-newswire-catchmark-led-partnership-completes-1-point-39-billion-acquisition-of-1-point-1-million-acres-of-prime-east-texas-timberlands.html

If we think about how much CS can be produced...
They can cut 140k solid cubic meters of wood. Depending on the density and adding in the residue waste etc then it comes to very very roughly 200k tonnes of wood to make maybe 100k tonnes of CS. CS will have a profit of $100/tonne based on the AGM presentation so that may equate to around $10mill profit and on a conservative PE of 15 come in at around 11.5-12p/share (£115/120mill mcap). Alberta is x4 bigger and then there is Peatswitch and any other forest they get their hands on

Disclaimer - clearly all the calculations are just for fun and may be wildly wrong!

Yea its not a federal issue its a Newfoundland issue so just needs NF cabinet approval.

We know their was a NF Cab meeting 13th of july cos the Premier tweeted it. 13 days later on 26th July they were tweeting the life out of the big Bay du Nord Oil deal that was done. It would have needed cabinet approval so i presume there was one on 26th. That brings us to next week for the next cabinet meeting. As I've said, we've been told they meet every 2 weeks in the summer. Possibility of an rns at the tail end of the week if not early next week is my 2p

I’m Semi reliably informed they meet every 2 weeks in the summer so are due to meet late this week coming. It’s through the cabinet committee tho with half the cabinet so this is a formality

Yes a local contact confirming not long to wait

It wouldn’t be worth the effort for 10 tonnes a day. More like 10 tonnes + an hour

They'll be getting involved in round 2 of this
https://www.alberta.ca/renewable-electricity-program.aspx#toc-1

Also see
http://msgcweb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/msgc-icli-our-plan.pdf

The Metis have 550k hectares of land in Alberta!

I presume we will be building a biomass/coalswitch power station for them. As it was a public meeting, Richard Spinks presentation should be made public too us and there should be an RNS as its price sensitive, you just watch monday for a nice rise. So much happening for AEG